Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2006 Season Totals

Through
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Least Abs. Val Reg0.625470.4980711.61380.99200211.67000267167100129130
2Deslock Rankings0.621850.5000011.33672.55290189.3300011974455959
3Least Squares0.610490.4865911.59291.05570207.78700267163104127134
4Stephen Kerns0.610490.5076311.75201.45850213.46900267163104133129
5NutShell Retro0.605580.5162611.66141.53470215.3750025115299127119
6Brian Gabrielle0.603000.5900410.73242.13300183.13200267161106154107
7Matthews Grid0.603000.5190811.57672.00510207.75800267161106136126
8Sports Report Elo0.601590.4918712.54781.69230242.66300251151100121125
9Hank Trexler0.599250.5284610.91761.67420183.69400267160107130116
10Kambour Rating0.599250.5555611.04772.23670188.45100267160107145116
11Logistic Regression0.597290.5023011.56190.63440216.5200022113289109108
12Sagarin0.595510.5364011.19052.38620192.34200267159108140121
13Line (updated)0.595510.0000010.79961.90820182.1020026715910800
14Computer Adjusted Li0.595510.5890410.78651.86520181.581002671591084330
15Pythagorean Ratings0.595510.5095811.19451.78920196.42500267159108133128
16Dokter Entropy0.593630.5491810.72611.44990182.75500251149102134110
17System Median0.591760.5077510.97561.86180186.39200267158109131127
18System Average0.591760.5019211.00251.85720187.07900267158109131130
19Pigskin Index0.591760.4853611.08242.54370190.85500267158109116123
20Sagarin Elo0.591760.5381711.47222.42480205.78100267158109141121
21Sagarin Predictive0.588010.5190811.34542.32300196.12300267157110136126
22Beck Elo0.588010.4961811.49852.70080204.68700267157110130132
23CPA Retro Rankings0.588010.5343511.43410.99670199.20000267157110140122
24Scoring Effeciency0.588010.5364011.03521.95550193.30400267157110140121
25Jeff Self0.587630.5052111.03182.16540190.30400194114809795
26Viacheslav0.585660.5284610.96022.05570189.28100251147104130116
27Covers.com0.585660.5447210.85561.50700185.55100251147104134112
28Reistertown Index0.584270.5098011.17231.62920195.26000267156111130125
29Stat Fox0.584270.4793411.40092.46470200.83500267156111116126
30CPA Rankings0.584270.5305311.35751.10310193.71900267156111139123
31PerformanZ Ratings0.584270.4961811.24711.86760196.37200267156111130132
32Geoff Rout0.580950.4802012.27982.54880238.048002101228897105
33JFM Power Ratings0.580520.4694711.27302.26300193.43000267155112123139
34Sonny Moore0.580520.5172411.38321.55390199.22600267155112135126
35Ashby AccuRatings0.580520.5250010.85042.08670185.36500267155112126114
36Line (opening)0.580520.5421710.81461.96440183.052002671551129076
37Roger Johnson0.579190.5069111.72100.80430210.4470022112893110107
38What If Sports0.576920.5294111.86672.96310224.6450015690668172
39Dunkel Index0.576780.4580211.53421.09620201.45100267154113120142
40Tom Benson0.576780.5517211.1519-0.14850193.67700267154113144117
41Pigskin Herald0.575540.5547411.02824.05480190.0890013980597661
42Eric Hollobaugh0.575130.4921511.34142.56820196.84700193111829497
43John Coffey0.574880.5196111.40852.49600199.271002071198810698
44The Sports Report0.573710.4715412.63391.22450237.89200251144107116130
45Steven Jens0.573030.5328210.97982.01120188.42300267153114138121
46Kasulis Enhanced Spr0.573030.5115411.06571.04290190.32100267153114133127
47Jeff Imes0.570340.5000012.05603.35670225.62100263150113129129
48Mike Greenfield0.570050.5320211.32321.70190193.326002071188910895
49ARGH Power Ratings0.570050.5052111.10271.99880196.52200207118899795
50Lee Burdorf0.565540.4651212.33402.92290232.22100267151116120138
51LS - w/ team HFA0.565540.4789312.06280.88860219.23900267151116125136
52TSR Slots0.557770.4756113.95651.59970309.77400251140111117129
53Grid Iron Gold0.557140.5594111.26910.62680202.759002101179311389
54Ed Bemiss0.554400.5053811.19593.05910195.29900193107869492
55Bihl Rankings0.554400.5235611.74493.75000210.681001931078610091
56Sport Trends0.554310.5440611.36582.89560206.73400267148119142119
57NutShell Sports0.505620.4122117.36261.36430438.80200267135132108154
58Doug Burrell0.000000.000000.00000.000000.0000000000
59Harmon Forcast0.000000.000000.00000.000000.0000000000
60Massey Ratings0.000000.000000.00000.000000.0000000000
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses