Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)
Through 2023-09-25
| Rank |
System |
Pct. Correct |
Against Spread |
Absolute Error |
Bias |
Mean Square Error |
games |
suw |
sul |
atsw |
atsl |
| 1 | Sagarin | | 0.50000 | 10.9250 | 0.36870 | 187.83900 | 16 | | | 8 | 8 |
| 2 | Line (Midweek) | | | 10.0313 | 0.15630 | 201.82700 | 16 | | | | |
| 3 | ARGH Power Ratings | | 0.23077 | 11.1875 | 1.06250 | 228.61700 | 16 | | | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Massey Ratings | | 0.25000 | 11.5531 | 2.38060 | 233.92700 | 16 | | | 4 | 12 |
| 5 | RP Excel | | 0.26667 | 13.6250 | -0.75000 | 322.46500 | 16 | | | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Roundtable | | 0.26667 | 12.0625 | 2.31250 | 222.60300 | 16 | | | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | System Median | | 0.33333 | 10.6922 | -0.10650 | 238.09900 | 16 | | | 5 | 10 |
| 8 | Ashby AccuRatings | | 0.35714 | 10.7500 | 0.62500 | 236.85100 | 16 | | | 5 | 9 |
| 9 | Laffaye RWP | | 0.37500 | 11.5175 | -0.31620 | 244.73600 | 16 | | | 6 | 10 |
| 10 | System Average | | 0.43750 | 10.3365 | -0.34010 | 225.27700 | 16 | | | 7 | 9 |
| 11 | Versus Sports Simulator | | 0.50000 | 10.9525 | 0.99000 | 190.43700 | 16 | | | 8 | 8 |
| 12 | Talisman Red | | 0.62500 | 11.2188 | -1.89370 | 316.96800 | 16 | | | 10 | 6 |
| 13 | Daniel Curry Index | | 0.50000 | 9.6944 | 0.78690 | 179.80000 | 16 | | | 8 | 8 |
| 14 | Cleanup Hitter | | 0.53333 | 15.8125 | -2.81250 | 371.56800 | 16 | | | 8 | 7 |
| 15 | Odds Shark | | 0.53333 | 11.4733 | -0.31330 | 256.47800 | 15 | | | 8 | 7 |
| 16 | Pi-Rate Ratings | | 0.53333 | 10.1875 | 0.18750 | 221.81000 | 16 | | | 8 | 7 |
| 17 | Line (opening) | | 0.53333 | 10.1875 | 0.18750 | 218.12300 | 16 | | | 8 | 7 |
| 18 | Dan Hanson | | 0.56250 | 10.5388 | -5.14250 | 247.27600 | 16 | | | 9 | 7 |
| 19 | Donchess Inference | | 0.56250 | 9.9700 | -0.73610 | 237.47300 | 16 | | | 9 | 7 |
| 20 | Line (updated) | | 0.56250 | 9.6250 | -0.25000 | 204.40200 | 16 | | | 9 | 7 |
| 21 | FF-Winners | | 0.60000 | 10.3750 | -2.37500 | 236.77200 | 16 | | | 9 | 6 |
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread = percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses