Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)
Through 2023-02-13
| Rank |
System |
Pct. Correct |
Against Spread |
Absolute Error |
Bias |
Mean Square Error |
games |
suw |
sul |
atsw |
atsl |
| 1 | System Median | | 0.53846 | 10.0304 | -2.56450 | 133.70200 | 13 | | | 7 | 6 |
| 2 | Line (Midweek) | | | 10.3077 | -2.85000 | 153.31300 | 13 | | | | |
| 3 | Cleanup Hitter | | 0.30769 | 14.2308 | -6.00000 | 288.85000 | 13 | | | 4 | 9 |
| 4 | Daniel Curry Index | | 0.30769 | 11.0777 | -1.67400 | 156.67600 | 13 | | | 4 | 9 |
| 5 | Line (updated) | | 0.37500 | 10.4231 | -2.95000 | 159.10500 | 13 | | | 3 | 5 |
| 6 | Ashby AccuRatings | | 0.46154 | 10.5385 | -1.30000 | 136.13100 | 13 | | | 6 | 7 |
| 7 | RP Excel 2 | | 0.50000 | 11.9000 | -4.90000 | 201.69900 | 10 | | | 5 | 5 |
| 8 | Pi-Rate Ratings | | 0.50000 | 10.7692 | -2.40000 | 149.57400 | 13 | | | 6 | 6 |
| 9 | Dan Hanson | | 0.53846 | 11.8615 | -8.54300 | 195.33200 | 13 | | | 7 | 6 |
| 10 | Stephen Kerns | | 0.53846 | 11.1538 | -2.00000 | 155.20000 | 13 | | | 7 | 6 |
| 11 | Versus Sports Simulator | | 0.53846 | 10.5631 | -0.59400 | 137.01300 | 13 | | | 7 | 6 |
| 12 | Bihl Rankings | | 0.53846 | 10.4569 | -1.51600 | 128.70600 | 13 | | | 7 | 6 |
| 13 | Massey Ratings | | 0.53846 | 10.2562 | -1.51900 | 146.83500 | 13 | | | 7 | 6 |
| 14 | Donchess Inference | | 0.76923 | 9.4287 | -3.49880 | 118.66700 | 13 | | | 10 | 3 |
| 15 | System Average | | 0.53846 | 9.8970 | -2.87470 | 133.04400 | 13 | | | 7 | 6 |
| 16 | Laffaye RWP | | 0.55556 | 11.4533 | -8.48170 | 125.40500 | 9 | | | 5 | 4 |
| 17 | ARGH Power Ratings | | 0.58333 | 10.2308 | -2.30000 | 130.97100 | 13 | | | 7 | 5 |
| 18 | Roundtable | | 0.60000 | 12.0000 | -10.40000 | 149.16800 | 5 | | | 3 | 2 |
| 19 | Line (opening) | | 0.60000 | 10.5000 | -2.45000 | 150.52500 | 13 | | | 6 | 4 |
| 20 | FF-Winners | | 0.61538 | 10.2308 | -6.40000 | 166.90400 | 13 | | | 8 | 5 |
| 21 | John Coffey | | 0.61538 | 9.8600 | -3.48400 | 132.62300 | 13 | | | 8 | 5 |
| 22 | Odds Shark | | 0.69231 | 9.8000 | -3.52000 | 130.79700 | 13 | | | 9 | 4 |
| 23 | Sagarin | | 0.69231 | 9.4931 | -3.50200 | 125.25700 | 13 | | | 9 | 4 |
| 24 | Talisman Red | | 0.69231 | 8.9077 | 0.32000 | 108.38800 | 13 | | | 9 | 4 |
| 25 | RP Excel | | 0.70000 | 9.2000 | -0.20000 | 107.19600 | 10 | | | 7 | 3 |
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread = percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses