Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

Through 2022-10-03
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Versus Sports Simulator0.5000013.3325-6.69250268.197001688
2Line (Midweek)10.3125-4.93750220.1950016
3Dan Hanson0.3125012.8650-5.75870268.1770016511
4System Average0.3125010.8999-5.35850223.0550016511
5Sagarin0.3750013.4856-8.53440314.1460016610
6RP Excel0.4000012.3125-0.56250274.043001669
7ARGH Power Ratings0.4000010.7500-6.75000245.527001669
8Stephen Kerns0.4285712.5000-6.50000282.734001668
9Line (updated)0.4285710.4063-5.03130220.621001634
10Laffaye RWP0.4375012.7437-7.32500291.052001679
11RP Excel 20.4375011.6250-4.75000276.340001679
12Pi-Rate Ratings0.4375010.1250-4.56250221.324001679
13Cleanup Hitter0.6666710.4063-5.03130228.3090016105
14Roundtable0.5000011.6250-6.12500230.405001688
15Massey Ratings0.5000010.7619-5.57940229.528001688
16System Median0.5000010.7149-5.73250222.911001688
17Line (opening)0.5000010.5625-3.93750220.906001677
18FF-Winners0.5000010.5000-7.25000258.590001688
19Talisman Red0.5625011.1813-3.90630227.333001697
20Donchess Inference0.5625010.3661-4.25190219.755001697
21Ashby AccuRatings0.5625010.3125-4.06250200.031001697
22Daniel Curry Index0.6250010.4075-5.04250217.9090016106
23Odds Shark0.625009.9687-3.76880226.3430016106
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses