Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

Through 2021-12-06
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1ARGH Power Ratings0.500009.85713.57140124.660001477
2Line (Midweek)10.14293.50000129.3390014
3John Coffey0.3571410.13213.47500131.934001459
4Roundtable0.3846210.35714.35710136.287001458
5Ashby AccuRatings0.3846210.00003.28570131.372001458
6Line (opening)0.4166710.64294.28570146.902001457
7FF-Winners0.4166710.28573.28570137.229001457
8RP Excel0.4285711.14295.28570179.719001468
9Massey Ratings0.4285710.59714.36570142.088001468
10System Median0.428579.95293.47220126.798001468
11Stephen Kerns0.4615411.21434.35710165.715001467
12Versus Sports Simulator0.5000010.25433.57710134.651001477
13Bihl Rankings0.5000010.04003.11710129.700001477
14RP Excel 20.769239.42861.57140154.3950014103
15Cleanup Hitter0.5714310.71435.50000177.054001486
16Laffaye RWP0.5714310.50932.81210157.475001486
17Sagarin0.571439.78863.25570119.096001486
18System Average0.571439.41833.17620120.084001486
19Odds Shark0.571439.40712.72140123.897001486
20Line (updated)0.600009.92862.64290120.108001464
21Pi-Rate Ratings0.6428610.17863.60710126.446001495
22Donchess Inference0.642869.98663.40240128.025001495
23TuringFantasy.com0.642869.21433.64290133.695001495
24Dan Hanson0.642868.2671-1.61290107.687001495
25Talisman Red0.714299.78572.31430154.2920014104
26Daniel Curry Index0.714298.06291.27430100.4560014104
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses