Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)
Through 2022-02-13
| Rank |
System |
Pct. Correct |
Against Spread |
Absolute Error |
Bias |
Mean Square Error |
games |
suw |
sul |
atsw |
atsl |
| 1 | Ashby AccuRatings | | 0.50000 | 11.6923 | 0.20000 | 255.99600 | 13 | | | 6 | 6 |
| 2 | Line (Midweek) | | | 11.0769 | -1.40000 | 224.10400 | 13 | | | | |
| 3 | Bihl Rankings | | 0.16667 | 12.3869 | 0.15700 | 261.28300 | 13 | | | 2 | 10 |
| 4 | Versus Sports Simulator | | 0.25000 | 12.1392 | 0.72700 | 243.81300 | 13 | | | 3 | 9 |
| 5 | Sagarin | | 0.25000 | 11.7631 | -0.85400 | 267.11000 | 13 | | | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Pi-Rate Ratings | | 0.33333 | 12.6154 | 2.10000 | 258.45900 | 13 | | | 4 | 8 |
| 7 | ARGH Power Ratings | | 0.33333 | 11.8462 | 0.00000 | 245.40000 | 13 | | | 4 | 8 |
| 8 | System Median | | 0.33333 | 11.2050 | -0.58570 | 233.70300 | 13 | | | 4 | 8 |
| 9 | Stephen Kerns | | 0.41667 | 11.8462 | 1.00000 | 208.70000 | 13 | | | 5 | 7 |
| 10 | Massey Ratings | | 0.41667 | 11.2862 | 0.46900 | 234.53300 | 13 | | | 5 | 7 |
| 11 | TuringFantasy.com | | 0.58333 | 12.1538 | -4.00000 | 209.00000 | 13 | | | 7 | 5 |
| 12 | Donchess Inference | | 0.58333 | 11.1148 | -2.56270 | 233.81600 | 13 | | | 7 | 5 |
| 13 | System Average | | 0.58333 | 10.9436 | -1.23030 | 236.64900 | 13 | | | 7 | 5 |
| 14 | FF-Winners | | 0.60000 | 10.6923 | -2.40000 | 219.82400 | 13 | | | 6 | 4 |
| 15 | Line (opening) | | 0.62500 | 10.9231 | -1.45000 | 217.01500 | 13 | | | 5 | 3 |
| 16 | Talisman Red | | 0.66667 | 11.2846 | -3.28000 | 280.17600 | 13 | | | 8 | 4 |
| 17 | Line (updated) | | 0.66667 | 11.0385 | -1.50000 | 225.72500 | 13 | | | 2 | 1 |
| 18 | Daniel Curry Index | | 0.66667 | 10.4946 | -2.42100 | 244.24800 | 13 | | | 8 | 4 |
| 19 | Cleanup Hitter | | 0.72727 | 10.2692 | -4.60000 | 181.68400 | 13 | | | 8 | 3 |
| 20 | Odds Shark | | 0.72727 | 9.7769 | -3.96000 | 228.11400 | 13 | | | 8 | 3 |
| 21 | Dan Hanson | | 0.75000 | 11.8808 | -7.15500 | 271.51800 | 13 | | | 9 | 3 |
| 22 | John Coffey | | 0.75000 | 11.1723 | -1.55000 | 241.33000 | 13 | | | 9 | 3 |
| 23 | RP Excel | | 0.50000 | 13.6667 | -0.70000 | 329.25100 | 12 | | | 5 | 5 |
| 24 | Laffaye RWP | | 0.45455 | 10.9517 | 3.69110 | 206.02400 | 12 | | | 5 | 6 |
| 25 | RP Excel 2 | | 0.40000 | 15.7273 | -1.33330 | 466.69100 | 11 | | | 4 | 6 |
| 26 | Roundtable | | 0.75000 | 9.5000 | -1.50000 | 118.12500 | 6 | | | 3 | 1 |
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread = percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses