Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)
Through 2023-02-13
| Rank |
System |
Pct. Correct |
Against Spread |
Absolute Error |
Bias |
Mean Square Error |
games |
suw |
sul |
atsw |
atsl |
| 1 | Daniel Curry Index | | 0.45517 | 11.0944 | -1.19310 | 193.31900 | 148 | | | 66 | 79 |
| 2 | Line (Midweek) | | | 9.8581 | -1.01030 | 159.29800 | 148 | | | | |
| 3 | Bihl Rankings | | 0.41739 | 10.9302 | -0.37770 | 194.54400 | 118 | | | 48 | 67 |
| 4 | ARGH Power Ratings | | 0.41791 | 10.6351 | -0.30340 | 187.11700 | 148 | | | 56 | 78 |
| 5 | Line (updated) | | 0.42353 | 9.8818 | -0.93450 | 159.96500 | 148 | | | 36 | 49 |
| 6 | Stephen Kerns | | 0.43478 | 11.3649 | 0.46210 | 207.10900 | 148 | | | 60 | 78 |
| 7 | Massey Ratings | | 0.43750 | 10.6390 | 0.47870 | 181.80000 | 148 | | | 63 | 81 |
| 8 | Pi-Rate Ratings | | 0.44286 | 10.6655 | 0.02410 | 178.04300 | 148 | | | 62 | 78 |
| 9 | Sagarin | | 0.44828 | 10.5732 | -1.08460 | 188.11700 | 148 | | | 65 | 80 |
| 10 | System Average | | 0.44828 | 10.3850 | -0.44080 | 176.92800 | 148 | | | 65 | 80 |
| 11 | Roundtable | | 0.44882 | 10.8058 | 0.60430 | 186.76000 | 139 | | | 57 | 70 |
| 12 | System Median | | 0.45070 | 10.4875 | -0.30420 | 179.26200 | 148 | | | 64 | 78 |
| 13 | RP Excel 2 | | 0.45324 | 11.9241 | -0.97240 | 222.96600 | 145 | | | 63 | 76 |
| 14 | FF-Winners | | 0.54745 | 10.3784 | -2.88970 | 179.39800 | 148 | | | 75 | 62 |
| 15 | Versus Sports Simulator | | 0.46897 | 10.8470 | -0.08920 | 197.06700 | 148 | | | 68 | 77 |
| 16 | John Coffey | | 0.46897 | 10.5356 | -0.29060 | 180.91700 | 148 | | | 68 | 77 |
| 17 | Ashby AccuRatings | | 0.47015 | 10.5000 | 0.75860 | 174.83700 | 148 | | | 63 | 71 |
| 18 | Cleanup Hitter | | 0.47222 | 11.6014 | -0.93790 | 210.70800 | 148 | | | 68 | 76 |
| 19 | Laffaye RWP | | 0.48227 | 10.5333 | -0.62270 | 177.75600 | 144 | | | 68 | 73 |
| 20 | Donchess Inference | | 0.48276 | 10.5456 | -0.51340 | 176.74400 | 148 | | | 70 | 75 |
| 21 | Dan Hanson | | 0.48837 | 10.6698 | -3.60120 | 188.53900 | 132 | | | 63 | 66 |
| 22 | Line (opening) | | 0.49180 | 10.1250 | -0.59660 | 167.79600 | 148 | | | 60 | 62 |
| 23 | RP Excel | | 0.49645 | 12.3448 | -0.28970 | 235.46100 | 145 | | | 70 | 71 |
| 24 | Talisman Red | | 0.50345 | 11.2642 | -0.66970 | 221.55000 | 148 | | | 73 | 72 |
| 25 | Odds Shark | | 0.51049 | 10.7061 | 1.57500 | 179.42000 | 147 | | | 73 | 70 |
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread = percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses