Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

Through 2022-01-17
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1RP Excel 20.5555613.7376-0.33330310.872001417560
2Laffaye RWP0.5289910.67410.44830185.260001417365
3System Average0.5251810.88280.31240184.834001427366
4Donchess Inference0.5251810.89750.56860185.891001427366
5Daniel Curry Index0.5251811.0964-1.48010198.562001427366
6TuringFantasy.com0.5496211.2014-1.51800213.041001397259
7Dan Hanson0.5179911.3106-4.38240209.319001427267
8RP Excel0.5073512.00701.52820226.723001426967
9Cleanup Hitter0.5073512.07040.02110234.000001426967
10Pi-Rate Ratings0.5037011.19371.58100190.875001426867
11Odds Shark0.4890510.9838-0.25990188.089001426770
12Talisman Red0.4855112.1845-0.90700240.335001426771
13Massey Ratings0.4855111.31931.91590194.557001426771
14FF-Winners0.5200010.7746-0.12680186.366001426560
15Ashby AccuRatings0.4850711.06340.88030188.959001426569
16John Coffey0.4460411.08180.78660188.533001426277
17Line (opening)0.5041310.82040.77820186.156001426160
18Sagarin0.4420311.29250.53140195.168001426177
19Stephen Kerns0.4469711.99301.64080217.509001425973
20Versus Sports Simulator0.4244611.59130.89370199.593001425980
21System Median0.4191211.08390.69920187.946001425779
22ARGH Power Ratings0.4166711.25350.88730192.051001425577
23Roundtable0.4359010.97622.65870189.095001265166
24Bihl Rankings0.3966911.69780.86460206.648001244873
25Line (updated)0.5584410.7148-0.15140180.333001424334
26Line (Midweek)10.75700.01060182.81900142
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses