Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)
Through 2023-09-25
| Rank |
System |
Pct. Correct |
Against Spread |
Absolute Error |
Bias |
Mean Square Error |
games |
suw |
sul |
atsw |
atsl |
| 1 | System Median | | 0.52273 | 9.8256 | -1.28020 | 173.63000 | 48 | | | 23 | 21 |
| 2 | Line (Midweek) | | | 9.8333 | -0.85420 | 165.16200 | 48 | | | | |
| 3 | Roundtable | | 0.26667 | 12.0625 | 2.31250 | 222.60300 | 16 | | | 4 | 11 |
| 4 | Dan Hanson | | 0.37500 | 12.7744 | -8.91810 | 280.34700 | 32 | | | 12 | 20 |
| 5 | ARGH Power Ratings | | 0.40476 | 10.1667 | 0.04170 | 165.83300 | 48 | | | 17 | 25 |
| 6 | RP Excel | | 0.43478 | 12.5625 | -1.81250 | 285.07700 | 48 | | | 20 | 26 |
| 7 | Sagarin | | 0.44681 | 11.7921 | -3.10750 | 211.37300 | 48 | | | 21 | 26 |
| 8 | Laffaye RWP | | 0.48889 | 10.5519 | -1.41560 | 183.74000 | 48 | | | 22 | 23 |
| 9 | Massey Ratings | | 0.48936 | 10.1631 | 0.51310 | 165.91800 | 48 | | | 23 | 24 |
| 10 | Cleanup Hitter | | 0.50000 | 12.6354 | -1.61460 | 251.71100 | 48 | | | 21 | 21 |
| 11 | System Average | | 0.51064 | 9.8685 | -1.51330 | 173.59100 | 48 | | | 24 | 23 |
| 12 | Donchess Inference | | 0.65957 | 9.4879 | -1.02700 | 168.98000 | 48 | | | 31 | 16 |
| 13 | Versus Sports Simulator | | 0.53191 | 10.4227 | -1.33020 | 182.53300 | 48 | | | 25 | 22 |
| 14 | Daniel Curry Index | | 0.53191 | 9.6848 | -0.49810 | 171.46000 | 48 | | | 25 | 22 |
| 15 | Ashby AccuRatings | | 0.55814 | 9.9375 | -0.27080 | 174.68600 | 48 | | | 24 | 19 |
| 16 | FF-Winners | | 0.56818 | 9.9375 | -3.14580 | 177.85600 | 48 | | | 25 | 19 |
| 17 | Line (opening) | | 0.57143 | 10.1875 | -0.10420 | 177.11400 | 48 | | | 24 | 18 |
| 18 | Odds Shark | | 0.58696 | 9.9809 | -1.63190 | 174.46100 | 47 | | | 27 | 19 |
| 19 | Pi-Rate Ratings | | 0.59091 | 9.7500 | -1.08330 | 166.52800 | 48 | | | 26 | 18 |
| 20 | Talisman Red | | 0.61702 | 9.4229 | -2.23960 | 201.07700 | 48 | | | 29 | 18 |
| 21 | Line (updated) | | 0.61765 | 9.6042 | -1.08330 | 164.14200 | 48 | | | 21 | 13 |
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread = percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses