Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)
Through 2023-02-13
| Rank |
System |
Pct. Correct |
Against Spread |
Absolute Error |
Bias |
Mean Square Error |
games |
suw |
sul |
atsw |
atsl |
| 1 | Roundtable | | 0.47768 | 10.9671 | 0.53910 | 192.10200 | 243 | | | 107 | 117 |
| 2 | Line (Midweek) | | | 10.4507 | 0.12990 | 176.25700 | 284 | | | | |
| 3 | TuringFantasy.com | | 0.26667 | 13.0625 | 3.56250 | 233.76900 | 16 | | | 4 | 11 |
| 4 | Bihl Rankings | | 0.42177 | 11.6070 | -0.39460 | 228.53600 | 150 | | | 62 | 85 |
| 5 | Stephen Kerns | | 0.44569 | 12.0563 | 0.58010 | 246.44400 | 284 | | | 119 | 148 |
| 6 | System Average | | 0.45714 | 10.7782 | -0.01110 | 187.44900 | 284 | | | 128 | 152 |
| 7 | Pi-Rate Ratings | | 0.45833 | 10.9965 | 0.64770 | 190.34500 | 284 | | | 121 | 143 |
| 8 | Cleanup Hitter | | 0.46350 | 12.9521 | -0.24910 | 258.86600 | 282 | | | 127 | 147 |
| 9 | System Median | | 0.46545 | 10.8362 | 0.07990 | 187.64900 | 284 | | | 128 | 147 |
| 10 | Laffaye RWP | | 0.46565 | 11.2726 | -0.44280 | 199.85200 | 266 | | | 122 | 140 |
| 11 | Massey Ratings | | 0.47312 | 10.8671 | 0.63520 | 189.62200 | 284 | | | 132 | 147 |
| 12 | Versus Sports Simulator | | 0.47500 | 11.5873 | 0.08790 | 224.29000 | 284 | | | 133 | 147 |
| 13 | Daniel Curry Index | | 0.47500 | 11.5352 | -0.21250 | 206.56800 | 284 | | | 133 | 147 |
| 14 | FF-Winners | | 0.55351 | 10.6303 | -2.17790 | 186.88000 | 284 | | | 150 | 121 |
| 15 | Ashby AccuRatings | | 0.47876 | 10.8345 | 1.19930 | 183.90600 | 284 | | | 124 | 135 |
| 16 | ARGH Power Ratings | | 0.47893 | 10.9225 | -0.09960 | 194.41300 | 284 | | | 125 | 136 |
| 17 | John Coffey | | 0.48000 | 10.7063 | -0.22680 | 187.21400 | 204 | | | 96 | 104 |
| 18 | Line (opening) | | 0.49153 | 10.6866 | 0.41640 | 182.38200 | 284 | | | 116 | 120 |
| 19 | Sagarin | | 0.50357 | 10.9446 | -1.32630 | 201.93600 | 284 | | | 141 | 139 |
| 20 | Line (updated) | | 0.50617 | 10.4349 | 0.10500 | 174.88200 | 284 | | | 82 | 80 |
| 21 | RP Excel 2 | | 0.50916 | 11.7972 | -0.11740 | 225.67600 | 281 | | | 139 | 134 |
| 22 | Donchess Inference | | 0.51071 | 10.9497 | 0.06310 | 191.38800 | 284 | | | 143 | 137 |
| 23 | Dan Hanson | | 0.51073 | 10.6802 | -3.38080 | 190.41600 | 236 | | | 119 | 114 |
| 24 | RP Excel | | 0.52015 | 12.5658 | 0.64410 | 244.87800 | 281 | | | 142 | 131 |
| 25 | Odds Shark | | 0.52536 | 11.0668 | 1.91960 | 190.04400 | 283 | | | 145 | 131 |
| 26 | Talisman Red | | 0.52688 | 11.4623 | -0.13630 | 216.76000 | 284 | | | 147 | 132 |
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread = percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses