Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

Through 2021-12-06
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1RP Excel0.4970812.21352.17980227.749001788586
2Line (Midweek)10.89691.70620175.15800194
3John Coffey0.4181811.70242.42010199.890001144664
4Bihl Rankings0.4210512.85602.78310240.94600964055
5ARGH Power Ratings0.4382011.38141.18560190.8900019478100
6Line (opening)0.4409911.25262.06700182.852001947190
7Massey Ratings0.4427111.56222.87830196.0170019485107
8Sagarin0.4531311.75991.07590208.6260019487105
9FF-Winners0.4606711.13921.22160181.173001948296
10Versus Sports Simulator0.4635412.13601.65750231.1220019489103
11Stephen Kerns0.4731212.96392.23200258.835001948898
12Roundtable0.4771211.50622.79010204.149001627380
13Line (updated)0.4878010.86341.54900173.461001944042
14TuringFantasy.com0.5691511.28353.18040196.9320019410781
15System Median0.5026711.01161.40370181.648001949493
16Ashby AccuRatings0.5028211.12890.88140185.269001948988
17RP Excel 20.5086713.44381.64610302.013001788885
18System Average0.5156311.02401.22620183.650001949993
19Cleanup Hitter0.5157912.38140.31440253.407001949892
20Daniel Curry Index0.5312511.47641.33030200.4470019410290
21Odds Shark0.5315811.35880.49380190.8450019410189
22Donchess Inference0.5364610.95181.53040177.9770019410389
23Pi-Rate Ratings0.5393311.07221.82990186.707001949682
24Talisman Red0.5502611.40460.37890207.6460019410485
25Laffaye RWP0.5625011.10651.16850187.6140019410884
26Dan Hanson0.5687511.2364-2.12440195.052001629169
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses