Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

Through 2022-01-17
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Ashby AccuRatings0.4941611.08990.44240187.35500278127130
2Line (Midweek)10.73560.48020176.83600278
3Bihl Rankings0.4025212.48091.29860234.589001626495
4ARGH Power Ratings0.4257811.33450.62230193.12500278109147
5Sagarin0.4359011.62860.41930207.22100278119154
6John Coffey0.4427111.37371.05780196.0820019885107
7Versus Sports Simulator0.4452611.97420.93810224.06200278122152
8Massey Ratings0.4468911.42792.07120196.37500278122151
9System Median0.4644211.02030.68560185.36100278124143
10Roundtable0.4654411.23482.39130200.22700230101116
11Stephen Kerns0.4676812.49641.61150242.66700278123140
12Line (opening)0.4678110.98920.97480182.92100278109124
13FF-Winners0.4739010.96040.11150183.60800278118131
14TuringFantasy.com0.5378811.45090.97090206.77800275142122
15RP Excel0.5040012.23661.39690228.58800262126124
16System Average0.5073010.98940.41690186.24600278139135
17Cleanup Hitter0.5092912.3651-0.45860251.77500278137132
18Daniel Curry Index0.5109511.5322-0.14740208.75300278140134
19RP Excel 20.5198413.80080.19920316.16800261131121
20Laffaye RWP0.5201511.03270.52760189.48500277142131
21Talisman Red0.5203011.5989-0.46730216.83100278141130
22Line (updated)0.5203310.71040.36510175.155002786459
23Dan Hanson0.5206611.5355-3.41570208.52800246126116
24Donchess Inference0.5219010.86580.74020181.41600278143131
25Odds Shark0.5222211.1590-0.47410189.47500278141129
26Pi-Rate Ratings0.5271311.02161.33810186.63200278136122
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses