Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)
2010 Retrodiction Results
Through
| Rank |
System |
Pct. Correct |
Against Spread |
Absolute Error |
Bias |
Mean Square Error |
games |
suw |
sul |
atsw |
atsl |
| 1 | System Average | 0.72659 | 0.00000 | 9.6064 | 0.63500 | 152.70200 | 267 | 194 | 73 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Roger Johnson | 0.72285 | 0.00000 | 9.7103 | 0.31000 | 158.70100 | 267 | 193 | 74 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Covers.com | 0.72285 | 0.00000 | 9.9251 | 1.32660 | 167.50800 | 267 | 193 | 74 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | System Median | 0.71910 | 0.00000 | 9.6197 | 0.59690 | 154.21000 | 267 | 192 | 75 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Sagarin | 0.71910 | 0.00000 | 9.7084 | 0.12880 | 155.97200 | 267 | 192 | 75 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | CPA Rankings | 0.71536 | 0.00000 | 9.1169 | 0.02270 | 141.63200 | 267 | 191 | 76 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | CPA Retro | 0.71536 | 0.00000 | 9.4701 | 0.00810 | 153.00300 | 267 | 191 | 76 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Sagarin Elo | 0.71536 | 0.00000 | 9.8964 | 0.11820 | 164.33400 | 267 | 191 | 76 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Least Abs. Val Reg | 0.70787 | 0.00000 | 9.4960 | -0.28410 | 161.83100 | 267 | 189 | 78 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Sagarin Predictive | 0.70787 | 0.00000 | 9.6898 | 0.13660 | 152.86600 | 267 | 189 | 78 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Ed Bemiss | 0.70787 | 0.00000 | 9.9888 | 1.29400 | 163.84900 | 267 | 189 | 78 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Stephen Kerns | 0.70412 | 0.00000 | 10.0640 | 1.23260 | 160.07200 | 267 | 188 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Logistic Regression | 0.70412 | 0.00000 | 10.0515 | 0.19660 | 173.66000 | 267 | 188 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | PerformanZ Ratings | 0.70412 | 0.00000 | 9.7948 | 0.36670 | 158.51000 | 267 | 188 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Sonny Moore | 0.70037 | 0.00000 | 9.8337 | 0.50810 | 158.96100 | 267 | 187 | 80 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | LS - w/ team HFA | 0.69663 | 0.00000 | 8.9820 | 0.04920 | 137.23800 | 267 | 186 | 81 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Least Squares | 0.69663 | 0.00000 | 9.7106 | -0.35710 | 154.16200 | 267 | 186 | 81 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | Ed Kambour | 0.69288 | 0.00000 | 9.7717 | 0.37620 | 157.43000 | 267 | 185 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 | Pythagorean Ratings | 0.69288 | 0.00000 | 9.9671 | 1.29120 | 165.55500 | 267 | 185 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 | JFM Power Ratings | 0.68539 | 0.00000 | 9.8939 | 1.13910 | 159.77300 | 267 | 183 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 | Beck Elo | 0.68539 | 0.00000 | 9.9887 | 1.19440 | 161.53500 | 267 | 183 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 | NutShell Sports | 0.68165 | 0.00000 | 11.1090 | 1.18310 | 191.17300 | 267 | 182 | 85 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 | Stat Fox | 0.67041 | 0.00000 | 10.1161 | 1.17980 | 161.01700 | 267 | 179 | 88 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 | Scoring Effeciency | 0.66667 | 0.00000 | 10.2003 | 1.29630 | 173.77300 | 267 | 178 | 89 | 0 | 0 |
| 25 | Ashby Accuratings | 0.64794 | 0.00000 | 10.1161 | 1.22470 | 167.41400 | 267 | 173 | 94 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 | Pigskin Index | 0.64419 | 0.00000 | 10.0337 | 1.19480 | 162.81500 | 267 | 172 | 95 | 0 | 0 |
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread = percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses