Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2015 Retrodiction Results

Through
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1CPA Retro0.783650.000009.3071-1.02630145.473002081634500
2Logistic Regression0.735580.0000011.24730.11360247.510002081535500
3Sagarin Recent0.730770.000009.08270.61000133.632002081525600
4Sagarin Golden Mean0.725960.000009.02980.61670133.276002081515700
5Sagarin0.721150.000009.02960.62340132.492002081505800
6Beck Elo0.721150.000009.20581.50490136.410002081505800
7Ed Kambour0.716350.000009.12800.84240134.438002081495900
8Dwiggins0.716350.000009.14861.57840132.579002081495900
9Pythagorean Ratings0.711540.000009.22691.56070138.961002081486000
10Sport Trends0.711540.000009.10101.54330132.912002081486000
11Sonny Moore0.711540.000009.07880.80560130.975002081486000
12Sagarin Predictive0.711540.000009.03140.64500131.361002081486000
13Roger Johnson0.711540.000008.9330-0.03470131.942002081486000
14Least Abs. Val Reg0.711540.000008.70660.78190142.718002081486000
15PerformanZ Ratings0.706730.000008.85050.53810129.042002081476100
16Least Squares0.706730.000009.00320.24810131.490002081476100
17Turnover Adj. Reg.0.706730.000009.23740.28810139.187002081476100
18LS - w/ team HFA0.701920.000008.59920.39270117.265002081466200
19Covers.com0.697120.000009.36061.54330144.205002081456300
20Scoring Effeciency0.692310.000009.42741.55380147.340002081446400
21YourLinx0.692310.000009.59971.45430153.262002081446400
22CPA Rankings0.677880.000009.2076-0.84020137.662002081416700
23Stat Fox0.677880.000009.34621.50960133.999002081416700
24Pigskin Index0.673080.000009.20191.49040138.845002081406800
25Points per game0.673080.000009.52220.55840149.151002081406800
26NutShell Sports0.668270.000009.64521.52980154.484002081396900
27Ashby Accuratings0.658650.000009.15870.48560135.706002081377100
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses