ThePredictionTracker NFL RESULTS

Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2015 Retrodiction Results

Through

Rank	System	Pct. Correct	Absolute Error	Bias	Mean Square Error	games	suw	sul
1	CPA Retro	0.78365	9.3071	-1.02630	145.47300	208	163	45
2	Logistic Regression	0.73558	11.2473	0.11360	247.51000	208	153	55
3	Sagarin Recent	0.73077	9.0827	0.61000	133.63200	208	152	56
4	Sagarin Golden Mean	0.72596	9.0298	0.61670	133.27600	208	151	57
5	Sagarin	0.72115	9.0296	0.62340	132.49200	208	150	58
6	Beck Elo	0.72115	9.2058	1.50490	136.41000	208	150	58
7	Ed Kambour	0.71635	9.1280	0.84240	134.43800	208	149	59
8	Dwiggins	0.71635	9.1486	1.57840	132.57900	208	149	59
9	Pythagorean Ratings	0.71154	9.2269	1.56070	138.96100	208	148	60
10	Sport Trends	0.71154	9.1010	1.54330	132.91200	208	148	60
11	Sonny Moore	0.71154	9.0788	0.80560	130.97500	208	148	60
12	Sagarin Predictive	0.71154	9.0314	0.64500	131.36100	208	148	60
13	Roger Johnson	0.71154	8.9330	-0.03470	131.94200	208	148	60
14	Least Abs. Val Reg	0.71154	8.7066	0.78190	142.71800	208	148	60
15	PerformanZ Ratings	0.70673	8.8505	0.53810	129.04200	208	147	61
16	Least Squares	0.70673	9.0032	0.24810	131.49000	208	147	61
17	Turnover Adj. Reg.	0.70673	9.2374	0.28810	139.18700	208	147	61
18	LS - w/ team HFA	0.70192	8.5992	0.39270	117.26500	208	146	62
19	Covers.com	0.69712	9.3606	1.54330	144.20500	208	145	63
20	Scoring Effeciency	0.69231	9.4274	1.55380	147.34000	208	144	64
21	YourLinx	0.69231	9.5997	1.45430	153.26200	208	144	64
22	CPA Rankings	0.67788	9.2076	-0.84020	137.66200	208	141	67
23	Stat Fox	0.67788	9.3462	1.50960	133.99900	208	141	67
24	Pigskin Index	0.67308	9.2019	1.49040	138.84500	208	140	68
25	Points per game	0.67308	9.5222	0.55840	149.15100	208	140	68
26	NutShell Sports	0.66827	9.6452	1.52980	154.48400	208	139	69
27	Ashby Accuratings	0.65865	9.1587	0.48560	135.70600	208	137	71

pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses