Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2017 Retrodiction Results

Through
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1LS - w/ team HFA0.719230.000007.86150.2778099.342002601877300
2Sagarin Predictive0.688460.000008.29900.03510113.230002601798100
3Sagarin0.715380.000008.27060.13030113.484002601867400
4Least Squares0.700000.000008.3406-0.08510114.072002601827800
5Sagarin Golden Mean0.738460.000008.27370.27520114.417002601926800
6Sagarin Recent0.742310.000008.28270.27350114.888002601936700
7PerformanZ Ratings0.719230.000008.2417-0.37780115.373002601877300
8Ed Kambour0.688460.000008.3140-0.27570115.433002601798100
9Pythagorean Ratings0.707690.000008.40650.22010115.878002601847600
10Ashby Accuratings0.653850.000008.3731-0.75000116.748002601709000
11Pigskin Index0.700000.000008.46540.23460119.557002601827800
12Sonny Moore0.676920.000008.5593-0.47580119.626002601768400
13Roger Johnson0.704760.000008.52100.56140119.646002101486200
14Beck Elo0.723080.000008.45750.23450119.890002601887200
15Stat Fox0.680770.000008.58080.25770120.565002601778300
16Dwiggins0.711540.000008.52170.19210120.840002601857500
17Turnover Adj. Reg.0.692310.000008.64790.18210122.106002601808000
18Least Abs. Val Reg0.730770.000008.0457-0.09080123.014002601907000
19Scoring Effeciency0.715380.000008.67890.19960124.974002601867400
20Covers.com0.684620.000008.65000.21150126.856002601788200
21Logistic Regression0.723080.000008.6112-1.42160127.317002601887200
22NutShell Sports0.680770.000008.65030.20310129.643002601778300
23YourLinx0.723080.000008.69240.16780132.416002601887200
24Points per game0.634620.000009.1475-0.79290133.488002601659500
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses