Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2015 Retrodiction Results

Through
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Pythagorean Ratings0.711540.000009.22691.56070138.961002081486000
2Ashby Accuratings0.658650.000009.15870.48560135.706002081377100
3NutShell Sports0.668270.000009.64521.52980154.484002081396900
4Points per game0.673080.000009.52220.55840149.151002081406800
5Pigskin Index0.673080.000009.20191.49040138.845002081406800
6Stat Fox0.677880.000009.34621.50960133.999002081416700
7CPA Rankings0.677880.000009.2076-0.84020137.662002081416700
8YourLinx0.692310.000009.59971.45430153.262002081446400
9Scoring Effeciency0.692310.000009.42741.55380147.340002081446400
10Covers.com0.697120.000009.36061.54330144.205002081456300
11LS - w/ team HFA0.701920.000008.59920.39270117.265002081466200
12Turnover Adj. Reg.0.706730.000009.23740.28810139.187002081476100
13Least Squares0.706730.000009.00320.24810131.490002081476100
14PerformanZ Ratings0.706730.000008.85050.53810129.042002081476100
15CPA Retro0.783650.000009.3071-1.02630145.473002081634500
16Sport Trends0.711540.000009.10101.54330132.912002081486000
17Sonny Moore0.711540.000009.07880.80560130.975002081486000
18Sagarin Predictive0.711540.000009.03140.64500131.361002081486000
19Roger Johnson0.711540.000008.9330-0.03470131.942002081486000
20Least Abs. Val Reg0.711540.000008.70660.78190142.718002081486000
21Dwiggins0.716350.000009.14861.57840132.579002081495900
22Ed Kambour0.716350.000009.12800.84240134.438002081495900
23Beck Elo0.721150.000009.20581.50490136.410002081505800
24Sagarin0.721150.000009.02960.62340132.492002081505800
25Sagarin Golden Mean0.725960.000009.02980.61670133.276002081515700
26Sagarin Recent0.730770.000009.08270.61000133.632002081525600
27Logistic Regression0.735580.0000011.24730.11360247.510002081535500
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses