ThePredictionTracker NFL RESULTS

Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2023 Last Week

Through 2023-09-25

Rank	System	Pct. Correct	Against Spread	Absolute Error	Bias	Mean Square Error	games	suw	sul	atsw	atsl
1	FF-Winners	0.81250	0.57143	13.8750	-2.37500	330.27200	16	13	3	8	6
2	Pi-Rate Mean	0.75000	0.68750	13.0687	-0.56870	290.21700	16	12	4	11	5
3	Talisman Red	0.75000	0.50000	14.4938	-1.44870	356.99900	16	12	4	8	8
4	Massey Ratings	0.75000	0.37500	14.3594	-2.62940	342.21200	16	12	4	6	10
5	Sagarin Rating	0.75000	0.68750	14.1100	-1.46000	334.17500	16	12	4	11	5
6	Laffaye RWP	0.75000	0.62500	13.8994	1.04560	341.22100	16	12	4	10	6
7	Sagarin Points	0.75000	0.60000	13.8031	-2.07190	331.43300	16	12	4	9	6
8	TeamRankings.com	0.75000	0.62500	13.6750	-1.86250	327.01400	16	12	4	10	6
9	Line (opening)	0.75000	0.56250	13.6250	-2.37500	322.74100	16	12	4	9	7
10	Pi-Rate Bias	0.75000	0.62500	13.5188	-0.48120	295.89600	16	12	4	10	6
11	LS - w/ team HFA	0.75000	0.50000	13.4812	-0.93500	281.81900	16	12	4	8	8
12	Pi-Rate Ratings	0.75000	0.68750	13.3313	-0.54370	294.13200	16	12	4	11	5
13	Logistic Regression	0.68750	0.37500	15.6244	-2.30060	367.96600	16	11	5	6	10
14	Dokter Entropy	0.68750	0.43750	14.8462	-1.36620	366.84200	16	11	5	7	9
15	PerformanZ Ratings	0.68750	0.37500	14.4875	-1.56750	342.36000	16	11	5	6	10
16	Donchess Inference	0.68750	0.62500	14.4875	-1.86250	384.19300	16	11	5	10	6
17	ARGH Power Ratings	0.68750	0.43750	14.4375	-2.81250	345.19300	16	11	5	7	9
18	Sagarin Recent	0.68750	0.62500	14.2263	-1.12380	331.30900	16	11	5	10	6
19	System Median	0.68750	0.43750	14.2212	-1.23250	334.96500	16	11	5	7	9
20	Daniel Curry Index	0.68750	0.50000	14.0919	0.97560	327.84700	16	11	5	8	8
21	System Average	0.68750	0.43750	13.9963	-0.99380	331.26700	16	11	5	7	9
22	Computer Adjusted Line	0.68750	0.40000	13.9688	-2.53130	337.08400	16	11	5	4	6
23	Line (Midweek)	0.68750		13.8750	-2.31250	332.04100	16	11	5
24	Line (updated)	0.68750	0.41667	13.8750	-2.68750	336.04900	16	11	5	5	7
25	ESPN FPI	0.68750	0.62500	13.8494	-2.46810	333.05500	16	11	5	10	6
26	Dunkel Index	0.68750	0.37500	13.2944	-2.80060	367.98400	16	11	5	6	10
27	Stat Fox	0.68750	0.56250	12.9387	0.18870	322.44800	16	11	5	9	7
28	RP Excel	0.68750	0.62500	14.0000	4.25000	292.87100	16	11	5	10	6
29	Game Time Decision	0.62500	0.40000	14.5000	-1.12500	340.17100	16	10	6	6	9
30	Dwiggins	0.62500	0.37500	16.7500	1.85630	434.27300	16	10	6	6	10
31	Dan Hanson	0.62500	0.37500	15.2188	-4.69880	376.91800	16	10	6	6	10
32	Least Squares	0.62500	0.56250	14.5850	-1.10630	329.78000	16	10	6	9	7
33	Least Abs. Val Reg	0.62500	0.64286	14.5781	-0.49940	325.20900	16	10	6	9	5
34	Ashby AccuRatings	0.62500	0.50000	14.5631	-1.68690	344.89000	16	10	6	7	7
35	Beck Elo	0.62500	0.37500	14.4150	0.64630	337.12900	16	10	6	6	10
36	Sagarin Golden Mean	0.62500	0.50000	14.4050	-1.53620	345.16300	16	10	6	8	8
37	Cleanup Hitter	0.62500	0.43750	14.2500	-0.56250	332.10500	16	10	6	7	9
38	Sonny Moore	0.62500	0.56250	14.1869	-1.27440	336.25100	16	10	6	9	7
39	Lou St. John	0.62500	0.50000	14.0044	-0.89560	335.17600	16	10	6	8	8
40	Pigskin Index	0.62500	0.68750	13.6256	0.00060	311.25500	16	10	6	11	5
41	Turnover Adj. regression	0.56250	0.56250	14.1400	-1.72620	303.17300	16	9	7	9	7
42	Versus Sports Simulator	0.56250	0.43750	16.3925	-1.20880	413.26900	16	9	7	7	9
43	Stephen Kerns	0.56250	0.31250	16.3938	0.65620	395.13000	16	9	7	5	11
44	Odds Shark	0.53333	0.33333	16.3533	1.43330	430.91600	15	8	7	5	10
45	Points Per Game	0.50000	0.37500	18.1256	-1.43690	490.90700	16	8	8	6	10
46	Scoring Effeciency	0.43750	0.18750	15.8531	-1.34940	388.42400	16	7	9	3	13
47	Pythagorean Ratings	0.43750	0.43750	15.8650	-0.67500	383.91800	16	7	9	7	9
48	Roundtable	0.43750	0.18750	19.4375	-3.31250	511.25200	16	7	9	3	13

pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses