Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2022 Last Week

Through 2022-10-03
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Scoring Effeciency0.687500.533336.36500.9375056.850001611587
2Dunkel Index0.687500.666676.8694-2.5144074.0870016115105
3FF-Winners0.687500.428576.87500.0000062.375001611568
4Stat Fox0.687500.533337.06190.9381068.621001611587
5Lou St. John0.687500.266677.41500.3438069.6220016115411
6Pigskin Index0.687500.266677.74881.2512078.0080016115411
7RP Excel 20.687500.571436.1250-1.5000055.359001611586
8Donchess Inference0.625000.333337.0937-0.0437065.0510016106510
9Sagarin Points0.625000.333337.8469-0.1131078.9380016106510
10Game Time Decision0.625000.230777.81250.9375079.3830016106310
11Turnover Adj. regressio0.625000.533337.71122.3987090.074001610687
12Pi-Rate Mean0.625000.533337.41251.9375071.615001610687
13Brent Craig0.625000.400007.40630.4000076.294001610669
14TeamRankings.com0.625000.400007.3812-0.4063069.560001610669
15Computer Adjusted Line0.625000.500006.84380.4688062.189001610644
16Line (Midweek)0.625006.78130.4688061.2520016106
17Line (updated)0.625001.000006.68750.4375059.707001610630
18Sagarin Recent0.625000.400006.6125-0.1200061.353001610669
19Least Squares0.562500.533337.84063.0181095.59600169787
20LS - w/ team HFA0.562500.466679.6663-0.98370122.84100169778
21Dan Hanson0.562500.466678.86254.14630114.37300169778
22System Median0.562500.333337.77690.6531077.528001697510
23Pi-Rate Ratings0.562500.533337.56252.2625075.97900169787
24Pi-Rate Bias0.562500.533337.46872.2813073.57500169787
25Sagarin Rating0.562500.466677.3219-0.1106071.99600169778
26Talisman Red0.562500.466677.26310.6306068.66700169778
27Odds Shark0.562500.600006.91874.8438075.38200169796
28Cleanup Hitter0.562500.714296.78191.5319062.560001697104
29Dokter Entropy0.562500.400007.52630.1362069.04900169769
30Sonny Moore0.500000.400008.06690.6244090.02900168869
31Pythagorean Ratings0.500000.333339.60372.38750119.692001688510
32Logistic Regression0.500000.400009.1925-0.15250120.50000168869
33RP Excel0.500000.357148.3125-0.5625088.79300168859
34Sagarin Golden Mean0.500000.400008.2900-0.5112091.33500168869
35System Average0.500000.400007.97370.7575082.41100168869
36ESPN FPI0.500000.466677.95811.0569086.27000168878
37Line (opening)0.500000.285717.5000-0.3750075.772001688410
38ARGH Power Ratings0.500000.333337.4219-1.0781077.064001688510
39Points Per Game0.437500.466677.5581-0.4669076.71800167978
40Dwiggins0.437500.2666711.54370.86880177.658001679411
41Stephen Kerns0.437500.2000011.3188-0.41880150.728001679312
42Beck Elo0.437500.400009.40691.65190116.02600167969
43Kasulis Enhanced Spread0.437500.266679.35000.61250117.137001679411
44Least Abs. Val Reg0.437500.466678.14562.8294098.97000167978
45Kasulis ESP20.437500.200007.90620.7563082.607001679312
46Massey Ratings0.437500.400007.8281-0.0081077.06400167969
47Daniel Curry Index0.437500.400007.75000.7087086.11200167969
48Ashby AccuRatings0.437500.400007.62500.2512074.99600167969
49PerformanZ Ratings0.375000.200009.9169-0.00440120.2380016610312
50Versus Sports Simulator0.375000.3333311.46000.96880165.7580016610510
51Roundtable0.312500.2666713.25000.37500229.7410016511411
52Roger Johnson0.312500.2666720.6338-0.18120584.7190016511411
53Laffaye RWP0.187500.2000016.68061.01060335.9910016313312
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses