Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2021 Last Week

Through 2021-12-06
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1RP Excel 20.857140.5384610.4286-1.42860165.854001412276
2Dan Hanson0.785710.3571411.46001.35860184.832001411359
3Kasulis Enhanced Spread0.714290.357149.8500-1.19290160.341001410459
4Sagarin Recent0.714290.2142910.19790.92360163.0970014104311
5Scoring Effeciency0.714290.2857110.49073.41210165.1400014104410
6LS - w/ team HFA0.714290.3571410.70140.00290187.861001410459
7Dwiggins0.642860.3571410.04292.99290142.94400149559
8TuringFantasy0.642860.3571410.64290.64290159.75600149559
9Stephen Kerns0.642860.5000010.45000.97860197.95700149577
10Logistic Regression0.642860.461549.76860.71570143.95500149567
11Daniel Curry Index0.642860.500009.7314-0.10570151.91700149577
12Massey Ratings0.642860.500009.26570.82860130.29800149577
13FF-Winners0.642860.363649.14292.00000126.00000149547
14Kasulis ESP20.642860.285719.12140.06430137.000001495410
15Lou St. John0.642860.500009.0036-0.75640125.07300149577
16RP Excel0.642860.615389.00002.0000098.57100149585
17Dunkel Index0.642860.500009.12292.77140117.39600149577
18Game Time Decision0.642860.500008.99931.85790129.02900149566
19Line (opening)0.642860.333338.92861.92860123.16300149548
20Dokter Entropy0.642860.428578.77713.07860118.37500149568
21Least Squares0.571430.642869.3221-1.35070130.12800148695
22System Median0.571430.461549.46001.51000132.28300148667
23Points Per Game0.571430.571439.51710.11140141.10900148686
24Sonny Moore0.571430.428579.58861.57570127.33000148668
25Laffaye RWP0.571430.500009.59361.67790137.49800148677
26John Coffey0.571430.357149.62931.73070134.76000148659
27Sagarin Rating0.571430.357149.63861.68430132.31700148659
28Donchess Inference0.571430.357149.65003.00710125.69800148659
29Roger Johnson0.571430.357149.67860.49860137.78500148659
30Odds Shark0.571430.571439.79293.15000168.97800148686
31ARGH Power Ratings0.571430.357149.80360.66070134.61600148659
32Pythagorean Ratings0.571430.3571410.00142.58000153.18200148659
33Turnover Adj. regressio0.571430.2857110.27640.66640165.146001486410
34Computer Adjusted Line0.571430.500009.00001.64290120.37900148644
35Sagarin Points0.571430.357149.27071.77070120.88100148659
36Pi-Rate Ratings0.571430.714298.58572.21430124.165001486104
37Pi-Rate Bias0.571430.714298.63572.25000126.612001486104
38Line (updated)0.571430.571438.82141.67860118.60200148643
39TeamRankings.com0.571430.571438.85001.25000119.53600148686
40Line (Midweek)0.571438.92861.35710119.833001486
41Roundtable0.571430.615388.92860.21430111.92500148685
42ESPN FPI0.571430.500008.97002.12000116.04000148677
43Versus Sports Simulator0.571430.642869.04430.34140124.37800148695
44Stat Fox0.571430.642869.07141.35710133.94000148695
45Bihl Rankings0.571430.642869.2557-0.28000125.54100148695
46System Average0.571430.571439.25791.26360130.04900148686
47Least Abs. Val Reg0.571430.571439.2900-2.15570146.12500148686
48Pi-Rate Mean0.500000.714298.60711.96430124.605001477104
49Sagarin Golden Mean0.500000.357149.55712.17290122.27900147759
50Pigskin Index0.500000.357149.64362.35790139.83100147759
51Beck Elo0.500000.428579.81212.87500150.77300147768
52Ashby AccuRatings0.500000.2857110.28573.00000153.071001477410
53PerformanZ Ratings0.500000.4285710.7186-0.06290186.88600147768
54Talisman Red0.500000.3571411.1279-1.59360169.23900147759
55Cleanup Hitter0.428570.2307711.78644.14360183.504001468310
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses