Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)
2021 Last Week
Through 2022-02-13
| Rank |
System |
Pct. Correct |
Against Spread |
Absolute Error |
Bias |
Mean Square Error |
games |
suw |
sul |
atsw |
atsl |
| 1 | Roundtable | 0.83333 | 0.80000 | 11.5000 | -6.16670 | 208.16200 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| 2 | Beck Elo | 0.69231 | 0.53846 | 8.1423 | -2.20540 | 105.07200 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 6 |
| 3 | TuringFantasy | 0.69231 | 0.58333 | 8.9231 | -3.23080 | 121.19700 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 5 |
| 4 | Turnover Adj. regressio | 0.69231 | 0.61538 | 8.0277 | -3.92460 | 120.85300 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 5 |
| 5 | RP Excel 2 | 0.63636 | 0.60000 | 8.6364 | 1.00000 | 126.36400 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 4 |
| 6 | John Coffey | 0.61538 | 0.53846 | 8.6862 | -2.23540 | 130.42800 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 6 |
| 7 | ARGH Power Ratings | 0.61538 | 0.53846 | 8.9231 | -3.38460 | 137.58000 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 6 |
| 8 | Sagarin Golden Mean | 0.61538 | 0.38462 | 8.6954 | -2.43380 | 122.22900 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 8 |
| 9 | Least Squares | 0.61538 | 0.46154 | 8.7023 | -2.67770 | 131.67500 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| 10 | Donchess Inference | 0.61538 | 0.38462 | 8.7231 | -2.61540 | 126.10000 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 8 |
| 11 | TeamRankings.com | 0.61538 | 0.38462 | 8.8000 | -1.95380 | 129.53900 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 8 |
| 12 | Sonny Moore | 0.61538 | 0.53846 | 8.8446 | -4.27540 | 136.48300 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 6 |
| 13 | Pi-Rate Mean | 0.61538 | 0.53846 | 8.8923 | -1.61540 | 125.08100 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 6 |
| 14 | Dokter Entropy | 0.61538 | 0.46154 | 9.0062 | -0.97080 | 128.56500 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| 15 | Scoring Effeciency | 0.61538 | 0.38462 | 9.0062 | -2.42620 | 130.97400 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 8 |
| 16 | Pi-Rate Ratings | 0.61538 | 0.46154 | 9.0231 | -1.60770 | 126.19900 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| 17 | Pi-Rate Bias | 0.61538 | 0.50000 | 9.0308 | -1.70770 | 126.66200 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
| 18 | Dan Hanson | 0.61538 | 0.38462 | 9.3408 | -1.74080 | 134.81800 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 8 |
| 19 | Dunkel Index | 0.61538 | 0.30769 | 9.4238 | -0.93150 | 128.95800 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| 20 | Logistic Regression | 0.61538 | 0.53846 | 9.5223 | -4.41620 | 157.64100 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 6 |
| 21 | Game Time Decision | 0.61538 | 0.46154 | 8.6154 | -1.53850 | 120.97200 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| 22 | Roger Johnson | 0.61538 | 0.61538 | 8.6369 | -3.12770 | 127.21200 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 5 |
| 23 | Odds Shark | 0.61538 | 0.53846 | 7.8846 | 2.56150 | 112.75900 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 6 |
| 24 | Line (opening) | 0.61538 | 0.81818 | 7.9231 | -2.07690 | 109.09100 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 2 |
| 25 | FF-Winners | 0.61538 | 0.70000 | 8.1538 | -2.15380 | 110.25900 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 3 |
| 26 | Kasulis ESP2 | 0.61538 | 0.63636 | 8.2692 | -3.03850 | 113.65200 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
| 27 | Computer Adjusted Line | 0.61538 | 0.75000 | 8.2692 | -2.11540 | 112.75200 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| 28 | Line (updated) | 0.61538 | 1.00000 | 8.2692 | -2.03850 | 112.73800 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| 29 | Pigskin Index | 0.61538 | 0.46154 | 8.3077 | -1.69230 | 108.85700 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| 30 | Sagarin Rating | 0.61538 | 0.61538 | 8.3677 | -2.72460 | 113.94100 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 5 |
| 31 | Line (Midweek) | 0.61538 | | 8.3846 | -2.15380 | 116.72000 | 13 | 8 | 5 | | |
| 32 | Sagarin Recent | 0.61538 | 0.61538 | 8.3954 | -2.94620 | 103.96200 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 5 |
| 33 | System Average | 0.61538 | 0.53846 | 8.4346 | -2.25620 | 120.10000 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 6 |
| 34 | Sagarin Points | 0.61538 | 0.46154 | 8.5369 | -2.65850 | 121.86500 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| 35 | System Median | 0.61538 | 0.53846 | 8.5515 | -2.33770 | 123.56100 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 6 |
| 36 | Laffaye RWP | 0.58333 | 0.41667 | 8.6308 | -0.13580 | 117.69800 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 7 |
| 37 | RP Excel | 0.58333 | 0.33333 | 10.1667 | -5.16670 | 183.60900 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 8 |
| 38 | Ashby AccuRatings | 0.53846 | 0.33333 | 8.4623 | -2.30690 | 119.44100 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 8 |
| 39 | Lou St. John | 0.53846 | 0.46154 | 9.6562 | -1.93000 | 153.17000 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
| 40 | Cleanup Hitter | 0.53846 | 0.46154 | 9.5000 | -3.34620 | 129.92700 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
| 41 | Points Per Game | 0.53846 | 0.46154 | 9.2508 | -1.91850 | 133.29600 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
| 42 | Versus Sports Simulator | 0.53846 | 0.38462 | 9.1100 | -1.75460 | 131.90600 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 8 |
| 43 | Pythagorean Ratings | 0.53846 | 0.46154 | 9.0723 | -2.10000 | 128.48600 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
| 44 | Least Abs. Val Reg | 0.53846 | 0.46154 | 9.0115 | -2.74850 | 143.22400 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
| 45 | Bihl Rankings | 0.53846 | 0.50000 | 8.8638 | -3.27770 | 136.83600 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| 46 | Massey Ratings | 0.53846 | 0.38462 | 8.8077 | -3.55850 | 128.57100 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 8 |
| 47 | Dwiggins | 0.53846 | 0.61538 | 8.6077 | -0.63080 | 111.26600 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 5 |
| 48 | Kasulis Enhanced Spread | 0.53846 | 0.53846 | 8.5923 | -3.71540 | 118.87300 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 6 |
| 49 | Daniel Curry Index | 0.53846 | 0.61538 | 8.5669 | -0.28690 | 99.85500 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 5 |
| 50 | Stat Fox | 0.53846 | 0.61538 | 8.5385 | -0.84620 | 119.56000 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 5 |
| 51 | Talisman Red | 0.53846 | 0.53846 | 8.4969 | -3.96770 | 136.23000 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 6 |
| 52 | Stephen Kerns | 0.46154 | 0.53846 | 9.6385 | -2.43850 | 158.57400 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 6 |
| 53 | PerformanZ Ratings | 0.46154 | 0.38462 | 10.2177 | -4.34850 | 163.43500 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 8 |
| 54 | LS - w/ team HFA | 0.46154 | 0.38462 | 10.8154 | -3.51690 | 199.01900 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 8 |
| 55 | ESPN FPI | 0.28571 | 0.57143 | 5.9329 | 3.29290 | 43.63000 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread = percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses