Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2010 Last Week

Through
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Least Squares0.818180.818187.78453.49550127.49400119292
2Sagarin Predictive0.818180.818187.71643.88360128.98600119292
3Lee Burdorf0.818180.818189.08183.11820150.55300119292
4Least Abs. Val Reg0.818180.636368.76362.35450143.12500119274
5LS - w/ team HFA0.818180.636368.68642.80090149.54700119274
6Roger Johnson0.818180.600008.44553.66360131.11000119264
7Stephen Kerns0.818180.818188.25452.80000127.70900119292
8Massey Ratings0.818180.636368.25003.43000129.12800119274
9Beck Elo0.818180.727278.18733.57640132.99900119283
10Austin Sports0.818180.909098.17185.19180142.229001192101
11Dwiggins0.750000.750008.82500.77500152.1070043131
12Schmidt Comp. Ratings0.727270.727278.46094.88820140.49800118383
13Yarnell0.727270.8000011.54556.45450195.75800118382
14Game Time Decision0.727270.454559.22645.13730160.20200118356
15Steven Jens0.727270.500008.80915.02730150.02200118355
16Bihl Rankings0.727270.727278.73555.36820149.42800118383
17Kasulis Enhanced Spread0.727270.545458.72453.33000143.17400118365
18System Median0.727270.727278.52824.50820145.50300118383
19System Average0.727270.727278.50554.48730144.01500118383
20Stat Fox0.727270.800008.27274.27270152.61300118382
21Dunkel Index0.727270.545458.25641.99820119.02300118365
22Ashby AccuRatings0.727270.818188.18182.91090141.04600118392
23Pat Laffaye0.727270.888897.98183.72730137.00200118381
24Sportrends0.727270.727277.77363.77360132.13400118383
25ARGH Power Ratings0.700000.777789.20005.20000167.49600107372
26Cover810.666670.333333.9000-0.5667021.9630032112
27Sonny Moore0.636360.545458.95454.97820164.30700117465
28PerformanZ Ratings0.636360.454559.45734.48820167.48600117456
29CPA Rankings0.636360.636368.99735.00820152.04300117474
30Wunderdog Sports0.636360.750008.81824.63640143.95500117462
31Pigskin Index0.636360.636368.54734.54730143.80800117474
32Sagarin0.636360.727278.49363.89360141.04800117483
33Kambour Rating0.636360.818188.48184.60000140.62200117492
34PickingPros.com0.636360.727278.29184.45730140.14500117483
35Michael Robert Ratings0.636360.636368.06184.16180127.74700117474
36Eric Hollobaugh0.636360.727278.76095.45180158.84600117483
37Atomic Football0.625000.7500010.20385.64880164.8760085362
38Upset Report0.545450.636369.90916.27270183.78700116574
39What If Sports0.545450.5555611.25456.52730199.58500116554
40Reistertown Index0.545450.4444410.90913.45450202.00600116545
41Line (opening)0.545450.1428610.18184.90910174.99100116516
42NutShell Sports0.545450.5454510.10364.99270181.58800116565
43JFM Power Ratings0.545450.454559.89005.58450168.35100116556
44Sagarin Elo0.545450.545459.68733.50910161.72400116565
45Line (updated)0.545459.59095.04550167.799001165
46Computer Adjusted Line0.545451.000009.40914.95450164.88200116530
47John Coffey0.545450.727279.18095.40450162.92700116583
48Scoring Effeciency0.545450.636369.16555.72000159.93300116574
49Pythagorean Ratings0.545450.636369.06365.55090158.03500116574
50Strengthranking.com0.545450.727278.05552.18270115.13800116583
51NFL Pickles0.545450.636369.62733.73640148.98500116574
52RP Excel0.454550.4545511.54556.81820182.41000115656
53CPA Retro Rankings0.454550.2727311.20275.76640195.48200115638
54Jim Armstrong0.454550.3636410.67647.31450196.63400115647
55David and Pasteur0.363640.545459.51185.40270160.21800114765
56Dokter Entropy0.363640.636369.62826.01360167.47500114774
57Logistic Regression0.363640.454559.92733.04000157.32500114756
58Covers.com0.363640.5454510.52736.20000193.36200114765
59Nutshell Combo0.363640.5454510.55915.51550193.14600114765
60Nutshell Girl0.363640.3636410.87276.05270198.68000114747
61YourLinx0.363640.2727311.55553.60640196.61400114738
62Hank Trexler0.272730.3000010.54554.36360174.99600113837
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses