Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2007 Last Week

Through
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Dwiggins1.000000.500008.5750-3.27500126.5210044022
2Ed Bemiss0.750000.2500011.2250-7.62500240.2170043113
3Sport Trends0.727270.727278.6364-3.38180117.51500118383
4CPA Retro Rankings0.636360.636367.87273.4945079.43400117474
5Least Abs. Val Reg0.636360.818188.10641.99550102.38600117492
6PerformanZ Ratings0.636360.818188.1645-0.7809097.09100117492
7Stephen Kerns0.636360.636369.06362.62730113.17000117474
8Cover810.625000.3333310.25003.75000147.2420085324
9TheSportsCruncher0.600000.4444410.50003.60000164.05400106445
10Sonny Moore0.545450.545458.7082-0.18270109.75300116565
11Computer Adjusted Line0.545451.000009.50003.31820123.93100116540
12Game Time Decision0.545450.727278.81822.90910110.91200116583
13Sagarin0.545450.700008.82182.04730109.87400116573
14Lee Burdorf0.545450.600008.9000-2.99090147.20400116564
15Hank Trexler0.545450.727278.90912.54550112.32000116583
16Reistertown Index0.545450.800009.18182.09090100.60300116582
17Sagarin Elo0.545450.545459.42002.16180120.33100116565
18Line (updated)0.545459.72733.45450128.324001165
19ARGH Power Ratings0.545450.545459.81822.90910121.24200116565
20Upset Report0.545450.6000010.24551.50000180.22400116564
21System Median0.545450.818188.59731.92450107.00200116592
22Steven Jens0.545450.636368.57271.48180113.79800116574
23Sagarin Predictive0.545450.727278.56362.18180108.09400116583
24Jeff Imes0.545450.636368.51731.67910109.14200116574
25Mike Greenfield0.545450.727278.45450.94550112.94600116583
26NutShell Sports0.545450.727278.22001.44730114.70300116583
27Stat Fox0.545451.000008.18182.1818096.476001165110
28Pigskin Index0.545450.727278.09090.45640114.77900116583
29JFM Power Ratings0.545450.818187.98551.0382093.75600116592
30Beck Elo0.545450.636367.7655-1.38000113.09100116574
31Logistic Regression0.545450.818187.3964-1.34000100.50300116592
32CPA Rankings0.545450.636368.64554.1764095.74300116574
33Brian Gabrielle0.500000.500009.08335.0833084.8180063333
34Grid Iron Gold0.500000.7142910.6250-2.62500140.0760084452
35Pigskin Herald0.500000.600009.97002.21000119.17700105564
36Tom Benson0.454550.3636412.78647.50640200.89900115647
37Ashby AccuRatings0.454550.5555610.72734.72730145.60500115654
38Sourjax0.454550.5454510.47273.95270127.63900115665
39Roger Johnson0.454550.818188.72731.66180112.93100115692
40Eric Hollobaugh0.454550.4545510.35274.17270140.05400115656
41NutShell Retro0.454550.545459.91643.23090120.71500115665
42Line (opening)0.454550.636369.54553.54550117.35700115674
43Pythagorean Ratings0.454550.545459.47551.97550116.31300115665
44Kasulis Enhanced Spread0.454550.545459.4091-2.22730138.71700115665
45Scoring Effeciency0.454550.727279.31091.70360113.06800115683
46Michael Robert Ratings0.454550.545459.24362.78000116.62800115665
47John Coffey0.454550.545459.15912.75180111.93200115665
48Covers.com0.454550.818188.97450.40910106.58800115692
49Dokter Entropy0.454550.636368.81730.76820107.91800115674
50System Average0.454550.727278.65361.91550109.25500115683
51Kambour Rating0.454550.818188.02912.1909090.63700115692
52LS - w/ team HFA0.454550.818186.88092.2391075.25200115692
53Bihl Rankings0.428570.571439.31433.05430129.7770073443
54Jeff Self0.400000.600009.7360-0.86000132.2040052332
55Least Squares0.363640.636369.34272.11000124.95000114774
56Dunkel Index0.363640.636369.94273.96270133.01900114774
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses