Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2015 Last Week

Through 2016-02-08
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Nutshell Middle Game0.909090.6000010.18090.90000217.619001110164
2MDS Model0.909090.6000010.3464-0.41100211.888001110164
3Dokter Entropy0.909090.800009.7691-0.10300195.047001110182
4System Median0.818180.6000010.6773-0.39900212.68400119264
5RP Excel0.818180.7777810.81820.90000209.21900119272
6System Average0.818180.6000010.6173-0.37200213.53400119264
7ThePowerRank.com0.818180.6000010.3727-0.72000201.66000119264
8Donchess Inference0.818180.7000010.2345-0.52400207.68100119273
9Sagarin Golden Mean0.818180.7000010.1255-0.77400197.66500119273
10ESPN FPI0.818180.7000010.03000.45800214.24400119273
11DirectorOfInformation.c0.818180.700009.9764-1.06700213.37200119273
12What If Sports0.818180.700009.8273-0.36000209.06900119273
13Roundtable0.900000.777789.49900.70100181.24700109172
14Covers.com0.727270.5000010.50001.10000227.77900118344
15NutShell Sports0.727270.5000011.09910.29100239.47500118355
16Dan Hanson0.727270.5000011.04180.37300266.78400118355
17IronRank.com0.727270.5000010.98820.79000219.43200118355
18Pythagorean Ratings0.727270.7000010.82451.06800224.75000118373
19Sagarin Points0.727270.7000010.7973-1.45500213.46100118373
20Kambour Rating0.727270.5000010.7100-1.04200204.75100118355
21CPA Retro Rankings0.727270.7000010.6764-1.23500206.64600118373
22PointShare0.727270.6666710.5727-0.98000209.42000118363
23Talisman Red0.727270.7000010.5645-1.17100194.93400118373
24Ashby AccuRatings0.727270.7000010.4536-1.19900210.58800118373
25Logistic Regression0.727270.7000010.40550.90900213.77000118373
26Line (updated)0.727270.5000010.2273-0.25000205.41900118322
27Line (Midweek)0.7272710.1818-0.30000201.791001183
28Computer Adjusted Line0.727270.5714310.1818-0.20000204.49600118343
29Line (opening)0.727270.5000010.0455-0.25000204.41900118322
30Cleanup Hitter0.727270.800009.68271.70100246.16500118382
31John Coffey0.727270.7000010.52361.09200203.76700118373
32ProComputerGambler0.727270.700009.13640.91700131.64400118373
33Steven Jens0.636360.6000011.85450.09000224.05200117464
34PerformanZ Ratings0.636360.6000011.09000.63300228.54000117464
35FF-Winners0.636360.5555611.1818-0.20000220.39600117454
36Dunkel Index0.636360.5000011.3536-0.26100217.18600117455
37Pi-Rate Ratings0.636360.4000011.4273-0.49000220.04500117446
38Pigskin Index0.636360.5555611.54450.10100236.48500117454
39Pi-Rate Mean0.636360.4000011.7273-0.23000225.99000117446
40Dwiggins0.636360.5000011.7636-0.40000212.26900117455
41Pi-Rate Bias0.636360.4000011.80000.44000228.36500117446
42ARGH Power Ratings0.636360.7777810.47730.67500195.61100117472
43Sagarin Recent0.636360.7000011.0491-1.28400204.48500117473
44Kasulis ESP20.636360.5000010.8455-0.60000225.82400117455
45Sonny Moore0.636360.7000010.82270.15200208.86700117473
46Turner Rateform0.636360.6000010.77183.49400212.32400117464
47Sagarin Rating0.636360.7000010.5664-1.19000203.77800117473
48Laffaye RWP0.636360.8000010.4382-0.40600208.79600117482
49Roger Johnson0.636360.7000010.4182-1.52600210.63500117473
50Game Time Decision0.636360.7000010.13730.20100206.63000117473
51Kalin Ratings0.636360.7000011.0673-1.43500207.70000117473
52Points Per Game0.545450.4000011.58360.67700229.92900116546
53YourLinx0.545450.5000011.84451.00400241.58600116555
54CPA Rankings0.545450.5000011.3500-2.99700223.15300116555
55Turnover Adj. regressio0.545450.6000011.0364-1.13300247.45800116564
56Scoring Effeciency0.545450.6000010.90821.19000232.88800116564
57Least Abs. Val Reg0.545450.6666710.8382-0.44000213.88300116563
58ComPughter Ratings0.500000.5555611.2740-2.34400237.19500105554
59Massey Ratings0.454550.7000011.3673-2.89300217.74300115673
60LS - w/ team HFA0.454550.4000012.0018-1.10500264.19100115646
61Kasulis Enhanced Spread0.454550.5000012.1818-1.06000259.41800115655
62Least Squares0.454550.5000012.2464-1.90500240.73000115655
63Beck Elo0.454550.6000012.2927-1.78200240.50200115664
64Stat Fox0.454550.3000012.7273-0.40000233.58400115637
65Daniel Curry Index0.454550.4000013.08090.89300245.82200115646
66Lee Burdorf0.454550.5000014.3818-1.08000284.92500115655
67Lou St. John0.363640.5000013.0518-2.91700276.71600114755
68Sportrends0.750000.7500012.625012.37500225.4020043131
69Bihl Rankings0.600001.0000012.682011.72500180.4710053250
70Stephen Kerns0.000001.0000015.00000.000000.0000010110
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses