Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)
2015 Last Week
Through 2016-02-08
| Rank |
System |
Pct. Correct |
Against Spread |
Absolute Error |
Bias |
Mean Square Error |
games |
suw |
sul |
atsw |
atsl |
| 1 | Nutshell Middle Game | 0.90909 | 0.60000 | 10.1809 | 0.90000 | 217.61900 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 2 | MDS Model | 0.90909 | 0.60000 | 10.3464 | -0.41100 | 211.88800 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 3 | Dokter Entropy | 0.90909 | 0.80000 | 9.7691 | -0.10300 | 195.04700 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 2 |
| 4 | System Median | 0.81818 | 0.60000 | 10.6773 | -0.39900 | 212.68400 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 4 |
| 5 | RP Excel | 0.81818 | 0.77778 | 10.8182 | 0.90000 | 209.21900 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 2 |
| 6 | System Average | 0.81818 | 0.60000 | 10.6173 | -0.37200 | 213.53400 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 4 |
| 7 | ThePowerRank.com | 0.81818 | 0.60000 | 10.3727 | -0.72000 | 201.66000 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 4 |
| 8 | Donchess Inference | 0.81818 | 0.70000 | 10.2345 | -0.52400 | 207.68100 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 3 |
| 9 | Sagarin Golden Mean | 0.81818 | 0.70000 | 10.1255 | -0.77400 | 197.66500 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 3 |
| 10 | ESPN FPI | 0.81818 | 0.70000 | 10.0300 | 0.45800 | 214.24400 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 3 |
| 11 | DirectorOfInformation.c | 0.81818 | 0.70000 | 9.9764 | -1.06700 | 213.37200 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 3 |
| 12 | What If Sports | 0.81818 | 0.70000 | 9.8273 | -0.36000 | 209.06900 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 3 |
| 13 | Roundtable | 0.90000 | 0.77778 | 9.4990 | 0.70100 | 181.24700 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 2 |
| 14 | Covers.com | 0.72727 | 0.50000 | 10.5000 | 1.10000 | 227.77900 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| 15 | NutShell Sports | 0.72727 | 0.50000 | 11.0991 | 0.29100 | 239.47500 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 5 |
| 16 | Dan Hanson | 0.72727 | 0.50000 | 11.0418 | 0.37300 | 266.78400 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 5 |
| 17 | IronRank.com | 0.72727 | 0.50000 | 10.9882 | 0.79000 | 219.43200 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 5 |
| 18 | Pythagorean Ratings | 0.72727 | 0.70000 | 10.8245 | 1.06800 | 224.75000 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| 19 | Sagarin Points | 0.72727 | 0.70000 | 10.7973 | -1.45500 | 213.46100 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| 20 | Kambour Rating | 0.72727 | 0.50000 | 10.7100 | -1.04200 | 204.75100 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 5 |
| 21 | CPA Retro Rankings | 0.72727 | 0.70000 | 10.6764 | -1.23500 | 206.64600 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| 22 | PointShare | 0.72727 | 0.66667 | 10.5727 | -0.98000 | 209.42000 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| 23 | Talisman Red | 0.72727 | 0.70000 | 10.5645 | -1.17100 | 194.93400 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| 24 | Ashby AccuRatings | 0.72727 | 0.70000 | 10.4536 | -1.19900 | 210.58800 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| 25 | Logistic Regression | 0.72727 | 0.70000 | 10.4055 | 0.90900 | 213.77000 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| 26 | Line (updated) | 0.72727 | 0.50000 | 10.2273 | -0.25000 | 205.41900 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| 27 | Line (Midweek) | 0.72727 | | 10.1818 | -0.30000 | 201.79100 | 11 | 8 | 3 | | |
| 28 | Computer Adjusted Line | 0.72727 | 0.57143 | 10.1818 | -0.20000 | 204.49600 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 29 | Line (opening) | 0.72727 | 0.50000 | 10.0455 | -0.25000 | 204.41900 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| 30 | Cleanup Hitter | 0.72727 | 0.80000 | 9.6827 | 1.70100 | 246.16500 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 2 |
| 31 | John Coffey | 0.72727 | 0.70000 | 10.5236 | 1.09200 | 203.76700 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| 32 | ProComputerGambler | 0.72727 | 0.70000 | 9.1364 | 0.91700 | 131.64400 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| 33 | Steven Jens | 0.63636 | 0.60000 | 11.8545 | 0.09000 | 224.05200 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 4 |
| 34 | PerformanZ Ratings | 0.63636 | 0.60000 | 11.0900 | 0.63300 | 228.54000 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 4 |
| 35 | FF-Winners | 0.63636 | 0.55556 | 11.1818 | -0.20000 | 220.39600 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| 36 | Dunkel Index | 0.63636 | 0.50000 | 11.3536 | -0.26100 | 217.18600 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| 37 | Pi-Rate Ratings | 0.63636 | 0.40000 | 11.4273 | -0.49000 | 220.04500 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| 38 | Pigskin Index | 0.63636 | 0.55556 | 11.5445 | 0.10100 | 236.48500 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| 39 | Pi-Rate Mean | 0.63636 | 0.40000 | 11.7273 | -0.23000 | 225.99000 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| 40 | Dwiggins | 0.63636 | 0.50000 | 11.7636 | -0.40000 | 212.26900 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| 41 | Pi-Rate Bias | 0.63636 | 0.40000 | 11.8000 | 0.44000 | 228.36500 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| 42 | ARGH Power Ratings | 0.63636 | 0.77778 | 10.4773 | 0.67500 | 195.61100 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 2 |
| 43 | Sagarin Recent | 0.63636 | 0.70000 | 11.0491 | -1.28400 | 204.48500 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 3 |
| 44 | Kasulis ESP2 | 0.63636 | 0.50000 | 10.8455 | -0.60000 | 225.82400 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| 45 | Sonny Moore | 0.63636 | 0.70000 | 10.8227 | 0.15200 | 208.86700 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 3 |
| 46 | Turner Rateform | 0.63636 | 0.60000 | 10.7718 | 3.49400 | 212.32400 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 4 |
| 47 | Sagarin Rating | 0.63636 | 0.70000 | 10.5664 | -1.19000 | 203.77800 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 3 |
| 48 | Laffaye RWP | 0.63636 | 0.80000 | 10.4382 | -0.40600 | 208.79600 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 2 |
| 49 | Roger Johnson | 0.63636 | 0.70000 | 10.4182 | -1.52600 | 210.63500 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 3 |
| 50 | Game Time Decision | 0.63636 | 0.70000 | 10.1373 | 0.20100 | 206.63000 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 3 |
| 51 | Kalin Ratings | 0.63636 | 0.70000 | 11.0673 | -1.43500 | 207.70000 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 3 |
| 52 | Points Per Game | 0.54545 | 0.40000 | 11.5836 | 0.67700 | 229.92900 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| 53 | YourLinx | 0.54545 | 0.50000 | 11.8445 | 1.00400 | 241.58600 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| 54 | CPA Rankings | 0.54545 | 0.50000 | 11.3500 | -2.99700 | 223.15300 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| 55 | Turnover Adj. regressio | 0.54545 | 0.60000 | 11.0364 | -1.13300 | 247.45800 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| 56 | Scoring Effeciency | 0.54545 | 0.60000 | 10.9082 | 1.19000 | 232.88800 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| 57 | Least Abs. Val Reg | 0.54545 | 0.66667 | 10.8382 | -0.44000 | 213.88300 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 3 |
| 58 | ComPughter Ratings | 0.50000 | 0.55556 | 11.2740 | -2.34400 | 237.19500 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 59 | Massey Ratings | 0.45455 | 0.70000 | 11.3673 | -2.89300 | 217.74300 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 3 |
| 60 | LS - w/ team HFA | 0.45455 | 0.40000 | 12.0018 | -1.10500 | 264.19100 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| 61 | Kasulis Enhanced Spread | 0.45455 | 0.50000 | 12.1818 | -1.06000 | 259.41800 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| 62 | Least Squares | 0.45455 | 0.50000 | 12.2464 | -1.90500 | 240.73000 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| 63 | Beck Elo | 0.45455 | 0.60000 | 12.2927 | -1.78200 | 240.50200 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 4 |
| 64 | Stat Fox | 0.45455 | 0.30000 | 12.7273 | -0.40000 | 233.58400 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 7 |
| 65 | Daniel Curry Index | 0.45455 | 0.40000 | 13.0809 | 0.89300 | 245.82200 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| 66 | Lee Burdorf | 0.45455 | 0.50000 | 14.3818 | -1.08000 | 284.92500 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| 67 | Lou St. John | 0.36364 | 0.50000 | 13.0518 | -2.91700 | 276.71600 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 5 |
| 68 | Sportrends | 0.75000 | 0.75000 | 12.6250 | 12.37500 | 225.40200 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 69 | Bihl Rankings | 0.60000 | 1.00000 | 12.6820 | 11.72500 | 180.47100 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| 70 | Stephen Kerns | 0.00000 | 1.00000 | 15.0000 | 0.00000 | 0.00000 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread = percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses