Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)
2007 Last Week
Through
| Rank |
System |
Pct. Correct |
Against Spread |
Absolute Error |
Bias |
Mean Square Error |
games |
suw |
sul |
atsw |
atsl |
| 1 | Sport Trends | 0.72727 | 0.72727 | 8.6364 | -3.38180 | 117.51500 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 3 |
| 2 | CPA Retro Rankings | 0.63636 | 0.63636 | 7.8727 | 3.49450 | 79.43400 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 4 |
| 3 | Least Abs. Val Reg | 0.63636 | 0.81818 | 8.1064 | 1.99550 | 102.38600 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 2 |
| 4 | PerformanZ Ratings | 0.63636 | 0.81818 | 8.1645 | -0.78090 | 97.09100 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 2 |
| 5 | Stephen Kerns | 0.63636 | 0.63636 | 9.0636 | 2.62730 | 113.17000 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 4 |
| 6 | System Median | 0.54545 | 0.81818 | 8.5973 | 1.92450 | 107.00200 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 2 |
| 7 | Hank Trexler | 0.54545 | 0.72727 | 8.9091 | 2.54550 | 112.32000 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 3 |
| 8 | CPA Rankings | 0.54545 | 0.63636 | 8.6455 | 4.17640 | 95.74300 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
| 9 | Sonny Moore | 0.54545 | 0.54545 | 8.7082 | -0.18270 | 109.75300 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
| 10 | Game Time Decision | 0.54545 | 0.72727 | 8.8182 | 2.90910 | 110.91200 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 3 |
| 11 | Sagarin | 0.54545 | 0.70000 | 8.8218 | 2.04730 | 109.87400 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 3 |
| 12 | Lee Burdorf | 0.54545 | 0.60000 | 8.9000 | -2.99090 | 147.20400 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| 13 | Reistertown Index | 0.54545 | 0.80000 | 9.1818 | 2.09090 | 100.60300 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 2 |
| 14 | Sagarin Elo | 0.54545 | 0.54545 | 9.4200 | 2.16180 | 120.33100 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
| 15 | Computer Adjusted Line | 0.54545 | 1.00000 | 9.5000 | 3.31820 | 123.93100 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
| 16 | Line (updated) | 0.54545 | | 9.7273 | 3.45450 | 128.32400 | 11 | 6 | 5 | | |
| 17 | ARGH Power Ratings | 0.54545 | 0.54545 | 9.8182 | 2.90910 | 121.24200 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
| 18 | Upset Report | 0.54545 | 0.60000 | 10.2455 | 1.50000 | 180.22400 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| 19 | Sagarin Predictive | 0.54545 | 0.72727 | 8.5636 | 2.18180 | 108.09400 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 3 |
| 20 | TheSportsCruncher | 0.60000 | 0.44444 | 10.5000 | 3.60000 | 164.05400 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| 21 | Logistic Regression | 0.54545 | 0.81818 | 7.3964 | -1.34000 | 100.50300 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 2 |
| 22 | Beck Elo | 0.54545 | 0.63636 | 7.7655 | -1.38000 | 113.09100 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
| 23 | JFM Power Ratings | 0.54545 | 0.81818 | 7.9855 | 1.03820 | 93.75600 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 2 |
| 24 | Steven Jens | 0.54545 | 0.63636 | 8.5727 | 1.48180 | 113.79800 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
| 25 | Pigskin Index | 0.54545 | 0.72727 | 8.0909 | 0.45640 | 114.77900 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 3 |
| 26 | Stat Fox | 0.54545 | 1.00000 | 8.1818 | 2.18180 | 96.47600 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| 27 | NutShell Sports | 0.54545 | 0.72727 | 8.2200 | 1.44730 | 114.70300 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 3 |
| 28 | Mike Greenfield | 0.54545 | 0.72727 | 8.4545 | 0.94550 | 112.94600 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 3 |
| 29 | Jeff Imes | 0.54545 | 0.63636 | 8.5173 | 1.67910 | 109.14200 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
| 30 | Eric Hollobaugh | 0.45455 | 0.45455 | 10.3527 | 4.17270 | 140.05400 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| 31 | NutShell Retro | 0.45455 | 0.54545 | 9.9164 | 3.23090 | 120.71500 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 |
| 32 | Line (opening) | 0.45455 | 0.63636 | 9.5455 | 3.54550 | 117.35700 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 4 |
| 33 | Pythagorean Ratings | 0.45455 | 0.54545 | 9.4755 | 1.97550 | 116.31300 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 |
| 34 | Kasulis Enhanced Spread | 0.45455 | 0.54545 | 9.4091 | -2.22730 | 138.71700 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 |
| 35 | Sourjax | 0.45455 | 0.54545 | 10.4727 | 3.95270 | 127.63900 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 |
| 36 | Scoring Effeciency | 0.45455 | 0.72727 | 9.3109 | 1.70360 | 113.06800 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 3 |
| 37 | Michael Robert Ratings | 0.45455 | 0.54545 | 9.2436 | 2.78000 | 116.62800 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 |
| 38 | John Coffey | 0.45455 | 0.54545 | 9.1591 | 2.75180 | 111.93200 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 |
| 39 | Covers.com | 0.45455 | 0.81818 | 8.9745 | 0.40910 | 106.58800 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 2 |
| 40 | Dokter Entropy | 0.45455 | 0.63636 | 8.8173 | 0.76820 | 107.91800 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 4 |
| 41 | Roger Johnson | 0.45455 | 0.81818 | 8.7273 | 1.66180 | 112.93100 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 2 |
| 42 | System Average | 0.45455 | 0.72727 | 8.6536 | 1.91550 | 109.25500 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 3 |
| 43 | Kambour Rating | 0.45455 | 0.81818 | 8.0291 | 2.19090 | 90.63700 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 2 |
| 44 | LS - w/ team HFA | 0.45455 | 0.81818 | 6.8809 | 2.23910 | 75.25200 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 2 |
| 45 | Ashby AccuRatings | 0.45455 | 0.55556 | 10.7273 | 4.72730 | 145.60500 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
| 46 | Pigskin Herald | 0.50000 | 0.60000 | 9.9700 | 2.21000 | 119.17700 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| 47 | Tom Benson | 0.45455 | 0.36364 | 12.7864 | 7.50640 | 200.89900 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 7 |
| 48 | Cover81 | 0.62500 | 0.33333 | 10.2500 | 3.75000 | 147.24200 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 49 | Least Squares | 0.36364 | 0.63636 | 9.3427 | 2.11000 | 124.95000 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 4 |
| 50 | Dunkel Index | 0.36364 | 0.63636 | 9.9427 | 3.96270 | 133.01900 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 4 |
| 51 | Grid Iron Gold | 0.50000 | 0.71429 | 10.6250 | -2.62500 | 140.07600 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| 52 | Dwiggins | 1.00000 | 0.50000 | 8.5750 | -3.27500 | 126.52100 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 53 | Bihl Rankings | 0.42857 | 0.57143 | 9.3143 | 3.05430 | 129.77700 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 54 | Brian Gabrielle | 0.50000 | 0.50000 | 9.0833 | 5.08330 | 84.81800 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 55 | Ed Bemiss | 0.75000 | 0.25000 | 11.2250 | -7.62500 | 240.21700 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 56 | Jeff Self | 0.40000 | 0.60000 | 9.7360 | -0.86000 | 132.20400 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread = percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses