ThePredictionTracker NFL RESULTS

Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2022 Last Week

Through 2023-02-13

Rank	System	Pct. Correct	Against Spread	Absolute Error	Bias	Mean Square Error	games	suw	sul	atsw	atsl
1	Roundtable	0.80000	0.60000	6.4000	4.40000	57.32800	5	4	1	3	2
2	Pi-Rate Mean	0.84615	0.61538	9.2769	0.55380	150.01600	13	11	2	8	5
3	Pi-Rate Ratings	0.84615	0.66667	9.4308	0.96920	148.32900	13	11	2	8	4
4	Turnover Adj. regressio	0.84615	0.69231	9.5646	-0.54000	166.08500	13	11	2	9	4
5	Laffaye RWP	0.77778	0.66667	8.3867	1.86220	111.31000	9	7	2	6	3
6	RP Excel	0.80000	0.80000	9.4000	1.60000	157.74400	10	8	2	8	2
7	Pi-Rate Bias	0.84615	0.61538	9.2154	0.38460	149.32700	13	11	2	8	5
8	Stephen Kerns	0.76923	0.61538	9.4000	1.00000	146.95700	13	10	3	8	5
9	Donchess Inference	0.76923	0.69231	9.5923	1.57690	142.58800	13	10	3	9	4
10	John Coffey	0.76923	0.53846	9.4015	0.25230	149.03300	13	10	3	7	6
11	LS - w/ team HFA	0.76923	0.69231	9.4438	0.12380	163.14500	13	10	3	9	4
12	Ashby AccuRatings	0.76923	0.70000	9.4615	0.23080	167.61100	13	10	3	7	3
13	Scoring Effeciency	0.76923	0.61538	9.5100	-0.20380	161.16600	13	10	3	8	5
14	Sagarin Golden Mean	0.76923	0.53846	9.5715	-0.06230	161.04400	13	10	3	7	6
15	ESPN FPI	0.76923	0.61538	10.1608	1.25920	161.05600	13	10	3	8	5
16	Daniel Curry Index	0.76923	0.53846	10.2346	0.67150	189.63500	13	10	3	7	6
17	Dan Hanson	0.76923	0.53846	10.4754	-1.63230	203.43900	13	10	3	7	6
18	Dwiggins	0.76923	0.53846	10.5154	0.26150	178.14200	13	10	3	7	6
19	RP Excel 2	0.70000	0.33333	12.3000	5.30000	214.49100	10	7	3	3	6
20	Stat Fox	0.76923	0.75000	9.3838	1.38540	164.43100	13	10	3	9	3
21	Sonny Moore	0.76923	0.69231	9.3985	-0.49380	170.27700	13	10	3	9	4
22	Game Time Decision	0.76923	0.75000	8.8846	0.96150	145.98700	13	10	3	9	3
23	Sagarin Rating	0.76923	0.69231	8.8538	-0.64920	156.38600	13	10	3	9	4
24	Sagarin Recent	0.76923	0.76923	8.9469	-1.22380	161.60100	13	10	3	10	3
25	Dokter Entropy	0.76923	0.61538	8.9992	1.17310	131.01500	13	10	3	8	5
26	System Average	0.76923	0.84615	9.0015	0.12620	152.66600	13	10	3	11	2
27	Sagarin Points	0.76923	0.76923	9.0100	-0.40690	155.60100	13	10	3	10	3
28	System Median	0.76923	0.83333	9.0546	0.01620	151.83700	13	10	3	10	2
29	Roger Johnson	0.76923	0.61538	9.0908	-0.54310	147.51300	13	10	3	8	5
30	Pythagorean Ratings	0.76923	0.76923	9.1185	0.31230	150.98100	13	10	3	10	3
31	Talisman Red	0.76923	0.69231	9.1346	-0.52690	155.27900	13	10	3	9	4
32	Cleanup Hitter	0.76923	0.69231	9.1546	-0.46080	150.06500	13	10	3	9	4
33	TeamRankings.com	0.76923	0.66667	9.1854	-0.36850	156.48800	13	10	3	8	4
34	Versus Sports Simulator	0.76923	0.69231	9.2000	0.33540	149.89900	13	10	3	9	4
35	Dunkel Index	0.76923	0.61538	9.2415	-1.41230	154.63800	13	10	3	8	5
36	FF-Winners	0.69231	0.88889	9.0769	-0.15380	145.99800	13	9	4	8	1
37	Odds Shark	0.69231	0.46154	11.4154	4.33850	180.76600	13	9	4	6	7
38	Line (Midweek)	0.69231		9.7692	0.38460	157.48900	13	9	4
39	Pigskin Index	0.69231	0.75000	9.6923	0.46150	179.52200	13	9	4	9	3
40	Line (updated)	0.69231	0.55556	9.6154	0.30770	155.83900	13	9	4	5	4
41	Beck Elo	0.69231	0.69231	9.5438	-0.12380	164.08800	13	9	4	9	4
42	ARGH Power Ratings	0.69231	0.46154	9.5385	-1.07690	150.52600	13	9	4	6	7
43	Bihl Rankings	0.69231	0.53846	9.4892	-1.16770	149.36000	13	9	4	7	6
44	Computer Adjusted Line	0.69231	0.85714	9.4231	0.34620	154.24100	13	9	4	6	1
45	Least Squares	0.69231	0.76923	9.0931	-0.22380	145.12300	13	9	4	10	3
46	Points Per Game	0.69231	0.84615	8.7923	0.28460	146.96300	13	9	4	11	2
47	Least Abs. Val Reg	0.69231	0.66667	8.7438	-0.90850	155.91500	13	9	4	8	4
48	Line (opening)	0.61538	0.70000	9.3462	-0.03850	160.48100	13	8	5	7	3
49	Logistic Regression	0.61538	0.53846	9.3831	-1.94920	141.06500	13	8	5	7	6
50	Massey Ratings	0.61538	0.61538	9.6838	-1.37460	166.70200	13	8	5	8	5
51	PerformanZ Ratings	0.61538	0.69231	9.8446	-1.13690	165.70300	13	8	5	9	4
52	Lou St. John	0.61538	0.61538	10.5200	0.02920	176.92800	13	8	5	8	5

pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses