Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2021 Last Week

Through 2022-02-13
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Kasulis Enhanced Spread0.538460.538468.5923-3.71540118.87300137676
2ARGH Power Ratings0.615380.538468.9231-3.38460137.58000138576
3Dokter Entropy0.615380.461549.0062-0.97080128.56500138567
4Scoring Effeciency0.615380.384629.0062-2.42620130.97400138558
5Pi-Rate Ratings0.615380.461549.0231-1.60770126.19900138567
6Pi-Rate Bias0.615380.500009.0308-1.70770126.66200138566
7Dan Hanson0.615380.384629.3408-1.74080134.81800138558
8Dunkel Index0.615380.307699.4238-0.93150128.95800138549
9Logistic Regression0.615380.538469.5223-4.41620157.64100138576
10Ashby AccuRatings0.538460.333338.4623-2.30690119.44100137648
11Talisman Red0.538460.538468.4969-3.96770136.23000137676
12Stat Fox0.538460.615388.5385-0.84620119.56000137685
13Daniel Curry Index0.538460.615388.5669-0.2869099.85500137685
14Beck Elo0.692310.538468.1423-2.20540105.07200139476
15Dwiggins0.538460.615388.6077-0.63080111.26600137685
16Massey Ratings0.538460.384628.8077-3.55850128.57100137658
17Bihl Rankings0.538460.500008.8638-3.27770136.83600137666
18Least Abs. Val Reg0.538460.461549.0115-2.74850143.22400137667
19Pythagorean Ratings0.538460.461549.0723-2.10000128.48600137667
20Versus Sports Simulator0.538460.384629.1100-1.75460131.90600137658
21Points Per Game0.538460.461549.2508-1.91850133.29600137667
22Cleanup Hitter0.538460.461549.5000-3.34620129.92700137667
23Lou St. John0.538460.461549.6562-1.93000153.17000137667
24Stephen Kerns0.461540.538469.6385-2.43850158.57400136776
25PerformanZ Ratings0.461540.3846210.2177-4.34850163.43500136758
26LS - w/ team HFA0.461540.3846210.8154-3.51690199.01900136758
27Sonny Moore0.615380.538468.8446-4.27540136.48300138576
28Turnover Adj. regressio0.692310.615388.0277-3.92460120.85300139485
29TuringFantasy0.692310.583338.9231-3.23080121.19700139475
30Odds Shark0.615380.538467.88462.56150112.75900138576
31Line (opening)0.615380.818187.9231-2.07690109.09100138592
32FF-Winners0.615380.700008.1538-2.15380110.25900138573
33Kasulis ESP20.615380.636368.2692-3.03850113.65200138574
34Computer Adjusted Line0.615380.750008.2692-2.11540112.75200138531
35Line (updated)0.615381.000008.2692-2.03850112.73800138520
36Pigskin Index0.615380.461548.3077-1.69230108.85700138567
37Sagarin Rating0.615380.615388.3677-2.72460113.94100138585
38Line (Midweek)0.615388.3846-2.15380116.720001385
39Sagarin Recent0.615380.615388.3954-2.94620103.96200138585
40System Average0.615380.538468.4346-2.25620120.10000138576
41Sagarin Points0.615380.461548.5369-2.65850121.86500138567
42System Median0.615380.538468.5515-2.33770123.56100138576
43Game Time Decision0.615380.461548.6154-1.53850120.97200138567
44Roger Johnson0.615380.615388.6369-3.12770127.21200138585
45John Coffey0.615380.538468.6862-2.23540130.42800138576
46Sagarin Golden Mean0.615380.384628.6954-2.43380122.22900138558
47Least Squares0.615380.461548.7023-2.67770131.67500138567
48Donchess Inference0.615380.384628.7231-2.61540126.10000138558
49TeamRankings.com0.615380.384628.8000-1.95380129.53900138558
50Pi-Rate Mean0.615380.538468.8923-1.61540125.08100138576
51RP Excel0.583330.3333310.1667-5.16670183.60900127548
52Laffaye RWP0.583330.416678.6308-0.13580117.69800127557
53RP Excel 20.636360.600008.63641.00000126.36400117464
54ESPN FPI0.285710.571435.93293.2929043.6300072543
55Roundtable0.833330.8000011.5000-6.16670208.1620065141
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses