Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2021 Last Week

Through 2022-01-17
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Odds Shark0.833330.833337.5833-2.91670107.1240065151
2Stat Fox0.833330.8333311.5000-6.16670187.1620065151
3Daniel Curry Index0.833330.6666710.7783-7.48830137.3480065142
4Roundtable0.833330.8000011.5000-6.16670208.1620065141
5Pi-Rate Mean0.833330.6666712.6667-6.96670220.3440065142
6Pi-Rate Bias0.833330.6666712.6167-7.35000217.6650065142
7Dokter Entropy0.833330.6666712.4750-8.06170205.4070065142
8RP Excel 21.000000.6000010.6000-5.80000190.6720055032
9Versus Sports Simulator0.833330.5000013.0783-7.56170228.3880065133
10Pi-Rate Ratings0.833330.5000012.6500-7.15000218.6480065133
11Dunkel Index0.833330.5000012.0917-7.91830192.1180065133
12Dwiggins0.833330.5000012.0417-7.22500184.3300065133
13Pigskin Index0.833330.5000011.8333-7.83330179.9400065133
14FF-Winners0.833330.6000011.8333-8.83330186.1620065132
15Laffaye RWP0.800000.6000012.5260-6.98200213.6560054132
16Line (opening)0.833330.7500011.6667-8.66670187.8150065131
17Ashby AccuRatings0.833330.6000011.5000-8.50000191.7920065132
18Cleanup Hitter0.833330.3333314.0000-11.16670217.4680065124
19Lou St. John0.833330.3333313.9500-8.66670261.4180065124
20TuringFantasy0.833330.4000013.8333-9.16670219.8290065123
21Points Per Game0.833330.3333313.6667-7.59000235.7560065124
22Pythagorean Ratings0.833330.3333313.4817-8.68830227.6210065124
23Talisman Red0.666670.3333313.0600-10.30000240.7380064224
24Roger Johnson0.833330.3333313.4733-10.22670228.4190065124
25Kasulis Enhanced Spread0.833330.3333313.4667-10.43330213.1480065124
26Turnover Adj. regressio0.833330.3333313.2467-10.30000224.4250065124
27System Median0.833330.3333312.8500-9.02330215.4530065124
28Sagarin Recent0.833330.3333312.7817-9.57830177.6610065124
29Line (updated)0.833331.0000011.6667-8.66670186.8980065120
30Computer Adjusted Line0.833330.6666711.7500-8.75000188.1150065121
31Beck Elo0.833330.3333312.2233-8.56330180.0150065124
32System Average0.833330.3333312.6217-8.86170209.2190065124
33Sagarin Points0.833330.3333312.6300-9.47330208.3920065124
34Game Time Decision0.833330.3333312.6667-8.33330202.0930065124
35Sagarin Rating0.833330.3333312.6967-9.56330194.9940065124
36Sagarin Golden Mean0.833330.3333312.7950-9.76500203.2030065124
37TeamRankings.com0.833330.3333312.7667-8.60000220.5100065124
38Kasulis ESP20.833330.5000012.6833-9.68330200.4140065122
39Sonny Moore0.833330.1666714.2533-11.51330248.7020065115
40Stephen Kerns0.500000.1666715.3167-9.11670294.5660063315
41LS - w/ team HFA0.666670.1666715.6667-10.94330335.2120064215
42RP Excel0.666670.1666715.3333-11.33330314.2590064215
43Least Abs. Val Reg0.666670.1666713.7633-10.05000258.4240064215
44Dan Hanson0.833330.1666713.3217-10.17830215.0000065115
45John Coffey0.833330.1666713.3383-9.51830229.6840065115
46Donchess Inference0.833330.1666713.4000-9.93330220.3580065115
47Least Squares0.833330.1666713.5917-8.67170240.0700065115
48Scoring Effeciency0.833330.1666713.5800-9.40670233.8590065115
49ARGH Power Ratings0.833330.0000014.3333-10.66670251.3700065106
50Bihl Rankings0.833330.0000013.9367-9.90670249.1790065105
51PerformanZ Ratings0.666670.0000015.7550-11.08830290.6760064206
52Logistic Regression0.666670.0000016.4700-12.80670295.7660064206
53Massey Ratings0.833330.0000013.4800-10.44330226.5170065106
54Line (Midweek)0.8333311.9167-8.91670194.87400651
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses