Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2007 Last Week

Through
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Stat Fox0.545451.000008.18182.1818096.476001165110
2Least Abs. Val Reg0.636360.818188.10641.99550102.38600117492
3PerformanZ Ratings0.636360.818188.1645-0.7809097.09100117492
4Covers.com0.454550.818188.97450.40910106.58800115692
5System Median0.545450.818188.59731.92450107.00200116592
6Roger Johnson0.454550.818188.72731.66180112.93100115692
7Logistic Regression0.545450.818187.3964-1.34000100.50300116592
8Kambour Rating0.454550.818188.02912.1909090.63700115692
9JFM Power Ratings0.545450.818187.98551.0382093.75600116592
10LS - w/ team HFA0.454550.818186.88092.2391075.25200115692
11Game Time Decision0.545450.727278.81822.90910110.91200116583
12Hank Trexler0.545450.727278.90912.54550112.32000116583
13Reistertown Index0.545450.800009.18182.09090100.60300116582
14Sport Trends0.727270.727278.6364-3.38180117.51500118383
15Sagarin Predictive0.545450.727278.56362.18180108.09400116583
16Mike Greenfield0.545450.727278.45450.94550112.94600116583
17NutShell Sports0.545450.727278.22001.44730114.70300116583
18Pigskin Index0.545450.727278.09090.45640114.77900116583
19System Average0.454550.727278.65361.91550109.25500115683
20Scoring Effeciency0.454550.727279.31091.70360113.06800115683
21Dokter Entropy0.454550.636368.81730.76820107.91800115674
22Line (opening)0.454550.636369.54553.54550117.35700115674
23Dunkel Index0.363640.636369.94273.96270133.01900114774
24Sagarin0.545450.700008.82182.04730109.87400116573
25CPA Rankings0.545450.636368.64554.1764095.74300116574
26Steven Jens0.545450.636368.57271.48180113.79800116574
27CPA Retro Rankings0.636360.636367.87273.4945079.43400117474
28Stephen Kerns0.636360.636369.06362.62730113.17000117474
29Least Squares0.363640.636369.34272.11000124.95000114774
30Jeff Imes0.545450.636368.51731.67910109.14200116574
31Beck Elo0.545450.636367.7655-1.38000113.09100116574
32Lee Burdorf0.545450.600008.9000-2.99090147.20400116564
33Pythagorean Ratings0.454550.545459.47551.97550116.31300115665
34Kasulis Enhanced Spread0.454550.545459.4091-2.22730138.71700115665
35NutShell Retro0.454550.545459.91643.23090120.71500115665
36Michael Robert Ratings0.454550.545459.24362.78000116.62800115665
37John Coffey0.454550.545459.15912.75180111.93200115665
38Pigskin Herald0.500000.600009.97002.21000119.17700105564
39Upset Report0.545450.6000010.24551.50000180.22400116564
40ARGH Power Ratings0.545450.545459.81822.90910121.24200116565
41Sourjax0.454550.5454510.47273.95270127.63900115665
42Sagarin Elo0.545450.545459.42002.16180120.33100116565
43Sonny Moore0.545450.545458.7082-0.18270109.75300116565
44Ashby AccuRatings0.454550.5555610.72734.72730145.60500115654
45Grid Iron Gold0.500000.7142910.6250-2.62500140.0760084452
46Eric Hollobaugh0.454550.4545510.35274.17270140.05400115656
47Tom Benson0.454550.3636412.78647.50640200.89900115647
48Computer Adjusted Line0.545451.000009.50003.31820123.93100116540
49Bihl Rankings0.428570.571439.31433.05430129.7770073443
50TheSportsCruncher0.600000.4444410.50003.60000164.05400106445
51Jeff Self0.400000.600009.7360-0.86000132.2040052332
52Brian Gabrielle0.500000.500009.08335.0833084.8180063333
53Cover810.625000.3333310.25003.75000147.2420085324
54Dwiggins1.000000.500008.5750-3.27500126.5210044022
55Ed Bemiss0.750000.2500011.2250-7.62500240.2170043113
56Line (updated)0.545459.72733.45450128.324001165
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses