Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)
2010 Last Week
Through
| Rank |
System |
Pct. Correct |
Against Spread |
Absolute Error |
Bias |
Mean Square Error |
games |
suw |
sul |
atsw |
atsl |
| 1 | Cover81 | 0.66667 | 0.33333 | 3.9000 | -0.56670 | 21.96300 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 2 | Sagarin Predictive | 0.81818 | 0.81818 | 7.7164 | 3.88360 | 128.98600 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 2 |
| 3 | Sportrends | 0.72727 | 0.72727 | 7.7736 | 3.77360 | 132.13400 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 3 |
| 4 | Least Squares | 0.81818 | 0.81818 | 7.7845 | 3.49550 | 127.49400 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 2 |
| 5 | Pat Laffaye | 0.72727 | 0.88889 | 7.9818 | 3.72730 | 137.00200 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| 6 | Strengthranking.com | 0.54545 | 0.72727 | 8.0555 | 2.18270 | 115.13800 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 3 |
| 7 | Michael Robert Ratings | 0.63636 | 0.63636 | 8.0618 | 4.16180 | 127.74700 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 4 |
| 8 | Austin Sports | 0.81818 | 0.90909 | 8.1718 | 5.19180 | 142.22900 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 10 | 1 |
| 9 | Ashby AccuRatings | 0.72727 | 0.81818 | 8.1818 | 2.91090 | 141.04600 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 2 |
| 10 | Beck Elo | 0.81818 | 0.72727 | 8.1873 | 3.57640 | 132.99900 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 3 |
| 11 | Massey Ratings | 0.81818 | 0.63636 | 8.2500 | 3.43000 | 129.12800 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 4 |
| 12 | Stephen Kerns | 0.81818 | 0.81818 | 8.2545 | 2.80000 | 127.70900 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 2 |
| 13 | Dunkel Index | 0.72727 | 0.54545 | 8.2564 | 1.99820 | 119.02300 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 5 |
| 14 | Stat Fox | 0.72727 | 0.80000 | 8.2727 | 4.27270 | 152.61300 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 2 |
| 15 | PickingPros.com | 0.63636 | 0.72727 | 8.2918 | 4.45730 | 140.14500 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 3 |
| 16 | Roger Johnson | 0.81818 | 0.60000 | 8.4455 | 3.66360 | 131.11000 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 4 |
| 17 | Schmidt Comp. Ratings | 0.72727 | 0.72727 | 8.4609 | 4.88820 | 140.49800 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 3 |
| 18 | Kambour Rating | 0.63636 | 0.81818 | 8.4818 | 4.60000 | 140.62200 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 2 |
| 19 | Sagarin | 0.63636 | 0.72727 | 8.4936 | 3.89360 | 141.04800 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 3 |
| 20 | System Average | 0.72727 | 0.72727 | 8.5055 | 4.48730 | 144.01500 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 3 |
| 21 | System Median | 0.72727 | 0.72727 | 8.5282 | 4.50820 | 145.50300 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 3 |
| 22 | Pigskin Index | 0.63636 | 0.63636 | 8.5473 | 4.54730 | 143.80800 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 4 |
| 23 | LS - w/ team HFA | 0.81818 | 0.63636 | 8.6864 | 2.80090 | 149.54700 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 4 |
| 24 | Kasulis Enhanced Spread | 0.72727 | 0.54545 | 8.7245 | 3.33000 | 143.17400 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 5 |
| 25 | Bihl Rankings | 0.72727 | 0.72727 | 8.7355 | 5.36820 | 149.42800 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 3 |
| 26 | Eric Hollobaugh | 0.63636 | 0.72727 | 8.7609 | 5.45180 | 158.84600 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 3 |
| 27 | Least Abs. Val Reg | 0.81818 | 0.63636 | 8.7636 | 2.35450 | 143.12500 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 4 |
| 28 | Steven Jens | 0.72727 | 0.50000 | 8.8091 | 5.02730 | 150.02200 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 5 |
| 29 | Wunderdog Sports | 0.63636 | 0.75000 | 8.8182 | 4.63640 | 143.95500 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 2 |
| 30 | Dwiggins | 0.75000 | 0.75000 | 8.8250 | 0.77500 | 152.10700 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 31 | Sonny Moore | 0.63636 | 0.54545 | 8.9545 | 4.97820 | 164.30700 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 5 |
| 32 | CPA Rankings | 0.63636 | 0.63636 | 8.9973 | 5.00820 | 152.04300 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 4 |
| 33 | Pythagorean Ratings | 0.54545 | 0.63636 | 9.0636 | 5.55090 | 158.03500 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
| 34 | Lee Burdorf | 0.81818 | 0.81818 | 9.0818 | 3.11820 | 150.55300 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 2 |
| 35 | Scoring Effeciency | 0.54545 | 0.63636 | 9.1655 | 5.72000 | 159.93300 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
| 36 | John Coffey | 0.54545 | 0.72727 | 9.1809 | 5.40450 | 162.92700 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 3 |
| 37 | ARGH Power Ratings | 0.70000 | 0.77778 | 9.2000 | 5.20000 | 167.49600 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 2 |
| 38 | Game Time Decision | 0.72727 | 0.45455 | 9.2264 | 5.13730 | 160.20200 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 39 | Computer Adjusted Line | 0.54545 | 1.00000 | 9.4091 | 4.95450 | 164.88200 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
| 40 | PerformanZ Ratings | 0.63636 | 0.45455 | 9.4573 | 4.48820 | 167.48600 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| 41 | David and Pasteur | 0.36364 | 0.54545 | 9.5118 | 5.40270 | 160.21800 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 5 |
| 42 | Line (updated) | 0.54545 | | 9.5909 | 5.04550 | 167.79900 | 11 | 6 | 5 | | |
| 43 | NFL Pickles | 0.54545 | 0.63636 | 9.6273 | 3.73640 | 148.98500 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
| 44 | Dokter Entropy | 0.36364 | 0.63636 | 9.6282 | 6.01360 | 167.47500 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 4 |
| 45 | Sagarin Elo | 0.54545 | 0.54545 | 9.6873 | 3.50910 | 161.72400 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
| 46 | JFM Power Ratings | 0.54545 | 0.45455 | 9.8900 | 5.58450 | 168.35100 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| 47 | Upset Report | 0.54545 | 0.63636 | 9.9091 | 6.27270 | 183.78700 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
| 48 | Logistic Regression | 0.36364 | 0.45455 | 9.9273 | 3.04000 | 157.32500 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 49 | NutShell Sports | 0.54545 | 0.54545 | 10.1036 | 4.99270 | 181.58800 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
| 50 | Line (opening) | 0.54545 | 0.14286 | 10.1818 | 4.90910 | 174.99100 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| 51 | Atomic Football | 0.62500 | 0.75000 | 10.2038 | 5.64880 | 164.87600 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 2 |
| 52 | Covers.com | 0.36364 | 0.54545 | 10.5273 | 6.20000 | 193.36200 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 5 |
| 53 | Hank Trexler | 0.27273 | 0.30000 | 10.5455 | 4.36360 | 174.99600 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 7 |
| 54 | Nutshell Combo | 0.36364 | 0.54545 | 10.5591 | 5.51550 | 193.14600 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 5 |
| 55 | Jim Armstrong | 0.45455 | 0.36364 | 10.6764 | 7.31450 | 196.63400 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 7 |
| 56 | Nutshell Girl | 0.36364 | 0.36364 | 10.8727 | 6.05270 | 198.68000 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 7 |
| 57 | Reistertown Index | 0.54545 | 0.44444 | 10.9091 | 3.45450 | 202.00600 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| 58 | CPA Retro Rankings | 0.45455 | 0.27273 | 11.2027 | 5.76640 | 195.48200 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 8 |
| 59 | What If Sports | 0.54545 | 0.55556 | 11.2545 | 6.52730 | 199.58500 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 60 | RP Excel | 0.45455 | 0.45455 | 11.5455 | 6.81820 | 182.41000 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| 61 | Yarnell | 0.72727 | 0.80000 | 11.5455 | 6.45450 | 195.75800 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 2 |
| 62 | YourLinx | 0.36364 | 0.27273 | 11.5555 | 3.60640 | 196.61400 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 8 |
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread = percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses