Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)
2017 Last Week
Through 2018-02-05
Rank |
System |
Pct. Correct |
Against Spread |
Absolute Error |
Bias |
Mean Square Error |
games |
suw |
sul |
atsw |
atsl |
1 | Talisman Red | 0.81818 | 0.60000 | 8.2209 | 0.14640 | 138.49000 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 4 |
2 | Least Abs. Val Reg | 0.81818 | 0.60000 | 6.9600 | -0.00550 | 121.47300 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 4 |
3 | Logistic Regression | 0.81818 | 0.90000 | 8.4736 | -1.45000 | 121.23400 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 1 |
4 | John Coffey | 0.72727 | 1.00000 | 7.5182 | 0.84910 | 120.27000 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
5 | Daniel Curry Index | 0.72727 | 0.70000 | 9.7655 | 1.54730 | 154.69400 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
6 | NutShell Sports | 0.72727 | 0.60000 | 9.2455 | 1.60910 | 166.78900 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 4 |
7 | Dan Hanson | 0.72727 | 0.70000 | 8.8536 | 0.41000 | 131.21500 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
8 | Sagarin Golden Mean | 0.72727 | 0.70000 | 8.5755 | 0.96640 | 130.52200 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
9 | Pi-Rate Bias | 0.72727 | 0.70000 | 8.2182 | 1.23640 | 138.30100 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
10 | Bihl Rankings | 0.72727 | 0.70000 | 8.1482 | 1.63360 | 131.86100 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
11 | Sonny Moore | 0.72727 | 0.80000 | 7.9436 | 0.90550 | 123.58900 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 2 |
12 | Stat Fox | 0.72727 | 0.66667 | 7.9091 | 0.81820 | 121.48500 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
13 | Pythagorean Ratings | 0.72727 | 0.70000 | 7.7973 | 0.56640 | 129.65200 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
14 | Least Squares | 0.72727 | 0.88889 | 7.6818 | 0.53820 | 126.52700 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
15 | Lou St. John | 0.72727 | 0.90000 | 7.5445 | -1.14090 | 135.82400 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
16 | RP Excel 2 | 0.71429 | 0.71429 | 10.7143 | 2.14290 | 176.05800 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
17 | Roundtable | 0.71429 | 1.00000 | 7.8571 | -1.28570 | 130.47800 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
18 | ARGH Power Ratings | 0.66667 | 0.87500 | 5.6667 | 3.00000 | 58.44400 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
19 | Stephen Kerns | 0.63636 | 0.70000 | 8.1182 | 0.13640 | 128.46800 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 3 |
20 | ComPughter Ratings | 0.63636 | 0.70000 | 8.1400 | 0.67090 | 148.95500 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 3 |
21 | LS - w/ team HFA | 0.63636 | 0.60000 | 8.1900 | 0.17550 | 124.01100 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 4 |
22 | Pi-Rate Ratings | 0.63636 | 0.80000 | 8.2455 | 1.19090 | 138.39900 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 2 |
23 | Pigskin Index | 0.63636 | 0.88889 | 8.2727 | 0.27270 | 138.44800 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
24 | Pi-Rate Mean | 0.63636 | 0.80000 | 8.4182 | 1.27270 | 143.39500 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 2 |
25 | Laffaye RWP | 0.63636 | 0.70000 | 8.4809 | 1.45000 | 145.49400 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 3 |
26 | Donchess Inference | 0.63636 | 0.90000 | 8.4918 | 0.82820 | 143.15700 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 1 |
27 | ESPN FPI | 0.63636 | 0.80000 | 8.5955 | 2.49730 | 130.85300 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 2 |
28 | Kasulis Enhanced Spread | 0.63636 | 0.70000 | 8.6182 | -0.58180 | 151.04200 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 3 |
29 | Points Per Game | 0.63636 | 0.60000 | 8.6827 | 0.67730 | 137.46400 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 4 |
30 | FF-Winners | 0.63636 | 0.66667 | 8.8182 | 1.00000 | 133.09100 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
31 | Covers.com | 0.63636 | 0.70000 | 9.0000 | 0.18180 | 136.08800 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 3 |
32 | Sagarin Recent | 0.63636 | 0.90000 | 9.0036 | -2.12910 | 146.63000 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 1 |
33 | TeamRankings.com | 0.63636 | 0.80000 | 8.1000 | 1.39090 | 128.86100 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 2 |
34 | Turner Rateform | 0.63636 | 0.90000 | 8.1182 | -0.57640 | 137.72400 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 1 |
35 | Scoring Effeciency | 0.63636 | 0.80000 | 7.5455 | 0.13090 | 126.98600 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 2 |
36 | PerformanZ Ratings | 0.63636 | 0.80000 | 7.6973 | -0.95730 | 130.97500 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 2 |
37 | Ashby AccuRatings | 0.63636 | 0.80000 | 7.8182 | 1.09090 | 120.61900 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 2 |
38 | Cleanup Hitter | 0.63636 | 0.90000 | 7.8182 | -2.72550 | 122.47700 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 1 |
39 | Dwiggins | 0.63636 | 0.80000 | 7.8636 | 0.98180 | 129.04200 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 2 |
40 | System Median | 0.63636 | 0.80000 | 7.8800 | 0.62180 | 127.98000 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 2 |
41 | Roger Johnson | 0.63636 | 0.90000 | 7.8927 | 0.03820 | 135.22600 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 1 |
42 | ThePowerRank.com | 0.63636 | 0.90000 | 7.9364 | 0.28180 | 123.77900 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 1 |
43 | Sagarin Points | 0.63636 | 0.80000 | 7.9827 | 1.15730 | 125.89400 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 2 |
44 | System Average | 0.63636 | 0.80000 | 7.9845 | 0.43550 | 131.48300 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 2 |
45 | Sagarin Rating | 0.63636 | 0.80000 | 8.0155 | 0.47910 | 126.19900 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 2 |
46 | Turnover Adj. regressio | 0.63636 | 0.80000 | 8.0273 | -0.42360 | 129.82400 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 2 |
47 | RP Excel | 0.57143 | 0.66667 | 10.7143 | -0.14290 | 223.56900 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
48 | Kalin Ratings | 0.57143 | 0.83333 | 9.9514 | -3.20000 | 186.70000 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
49 | Beck Elo | 0.54545 | 0.90000 | 8.2255 | -1.19820 | 141.84000 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 1 |
50 | Game Time Decision | 0.54545 | 0.70000 | 10.2718 | 1.63730 | 194.47400 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 3 |
51 | Dunkel Index | 0.54545 | 0.50000 | 10.0755 | 3.82090 | 175.79100 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
52 | Lee Burdorf | 0.54545 | 0.60000 | 9.4364 | -0.67270 | 161.71000 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
53 | YourLinx | 0.54545 | 0.90000 | 9.0109 | -1.16550 | 140.62300 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 1 |
54 | What If Sports | 0.54545 | 0.90000 | 8.9273 | -3.72730 | 158.95000 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 1 |
55 | Dokter Entropy | 0.54545 | 0.70000 | 8.4482 | 1.68640 | 143.05700 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 3 |
56 | Massey Ratings | 0.54545 | 1.00000 | 7.8009 | 0.12270 | 133.56700 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
57 | TheSportsCruncher | 0.50000 | 0.42857 | 8.7750 | 2.05000 | 93.27200 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
58 | Kasulis ESP2 | 0.45455 | 0.70000 | 9.1636 | 0.01820 | 163.14500 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 3 |
59 | Computer Adjusted Line | 0.45455 | 1.00000 | 9.3182 | 0.86360 | 166.86400 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
60 | ProComputerGambler | 0.45455 | 0.50000 | 9.3655 | 0.86180 | 169.51900 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
61 | Line (updated) | 0.45455 | 1.00000 | 9.6818 | 0.77270 | 181.10500 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 0 |
62 | Line (opening) | 0.45455 | 0.80000 | 9.6818 | 0.40910 | 178.28000 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 |
63 | Line (Midweek) | 0.45455 | | 9.9545 | 0.95450 | 184.84900 | 11 | 5 | 6 | | |
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread = percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses