Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2022 Second Half Totals

Through 2023-02-13
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Sagarin Points0.721090.534728.8493-0.04920139.53500148106417767
2FF-Winners0.707480.609098.6014-0.41220129.96500148104436743
3Sagarin Rating0.707480.520838.7928-0.06220138.86200148104437569
4Line (updated)0.700680.563228.6385-0.32090130.48100148103444938
5Computer Adjusted Line0.700680.548398.6689-0.20270131.08100148103445142
6Scoring Effeciency0.700680.465289.06120.67040141.00200148103446777
7Donchess Inference0.693880.535219.12700.45810140.60300148102457666
8Pigskin Index0.687070.514938.89861.12860137.23900148101466965
9Sagarin Golden Mean0.687070.500009.1376-0.02610145.89600148101467272
10Versus Sports Simulator0.687070.458339.25030.45390143.41900148101466678
11System Median0.680270.492868.92910.19130136.22800148100476971
12Pi-Rate Ratings0.680270.482279.52770.57640147.38800148100476873
13John Coffey0.680270.465289.33760.40210145.02000148100476777
14Massey Ratings0.680270.486119.1520-0.60390142.48200148100477074
15ESPN FPI0.680270.534729.1413-0.28550140.84700148100477767
16Game Time Decision0.680270.514298.96961.02380136.77400148100477268
17System Average0.680270.500008.95200.21740136.51900148100477272
18Cleanup Hitter0.680270.557978.86510.39900138.41300148100477761
19Roundtable0.673910.500009.59701.03630151.0690013993456565
20Pi-Rate Bias0.673470.471839.45610.56820144.4060014899486775
21Pi-Rate Mean0.673470.458339.42640.54670144.9290014899486678
22Pythagorean Ratings0.673470.472229.12610.78080138.9380014899486876
23Ashby AccuRatings0.673470.481489.0880-0.01950142.8920014899486570
24Sonny Moore0.673470.465289.06640.02040138.1740014899486777
25Least Squares0.673470.513899.0666-0.12110139.5740014899487470
26Sagarin Recent0.673470.527788.7537-0.22990137.8020014899487668
27TeamRankings.com0.673470.524488.9906-0.29180139.6950014899487568
28Roger Johnson0.673470.503509.0050-0.22360139.1000014899487271
29Turnover Adj. regressio0.673470.520839.0412-0.60570140.2600014899487569
30Line (Midweek)0.666678.7568-0.51350132.366001489849
31Beck Elo0.666670.513899.00211.19720141.5360014898497470
32Dokter Entropy0.666670.454559.14300.32590140.1740014898496578
33Lou St. John0.666670.465289.15870.00260142.0970014898496777
34Dwiggins0.666670.534729.37871.65980149.1570014898497767
35Stat Fox0.666670.451859.39211.21660143.6370014898496174
36PerformanZ Ratings0.653060.479179.6070-0.66360147.5030014896516975
37RP Excel 20.652780.478579.86900.26900152.9310014594506773
38Laffaye RWP0.650350.521439.48181.00710147.6600014493507367
39Dunkel Index0.646260.465289.4222-1.82220147.0430014895526777
40Talisman Red0.646260.517489.29590.59360145.6270014895527469
41Least Abs. Val Reg0.646260.538469.0565-0.22720142.7710014895527766
42Line (opening)0.646260.509098.9696-0.32770135.2040014895525654
43Daniel Curry Index0.639460.444449.73210.03720157.1300014894536480
44Odds Shark0.636990.4859210.41233.88580167.7510014793536973
45Dan Hanson0.633590.492199.3674-0.18300148.7080013283486365
46Stephen Kerns0.632650.482529.3200-0.08680145.2910014893546974
47Points Per Game0.632650.489519.3363-0.09260143.1340014893547073
48Bihl Rankings0.632480.512829.3288-1.62470145.6840011874436057
49ARGH Power Ratings0.625850.492549.3074-1.38850145.2860014892556668
50LS - w/ team HFA0.619050.4475510.0173-0.29920164.4310014891566479
51Logistic Regression0.605440.541679.7247-1.76590162.1270014889587866
52RP Excel0.604170.448829.8069-0.41380159.9850014587575770
53Brent Craig0.535710.346159.83113.51110170.15900281513917
54Kasulis Enhanced Spread0.533330.642868.30671.42670107.77800158795
55Kasulis ESP20.466670.600008.39331.08670107.77800157896
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses