Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2021 Second Half Totals

Through 2022-02-13
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Kasulis ESP20.668920.4421811.1530-2.15840196.4340014999496582
2Donchess Inference0.648650.4452111.1128-1.09530197.3060014996526581
3Sagarin Recent0.648650.4189212.0138-1.96090221.2300014996526286
4Line (updated)0.641890.6263710.7013-1.56040183.6430014995535734
5Computer Adjusted Line0.635140.5900010.7685-1.58050185.7370014994545941
6Line (Midweek)0.6351410.9262-1.72480190.051001499454
7Dokter Entropy0.635140.5100711.1237-0.22420197.0560014994547673
8Dan Hanson0.635140.4698011.9835-2.00120229.2760014994547079
9RP Excel 20.630140.5314712.8912-2.79590277.1240014792547667
10Kasulis Enhanced Spread0.628380.4256811.6886-2.57850211.0010014993556385
11Daniel Curry Index0.628380.5234911.7609-0.50020216.1140014993557871
12Pigskin Index0.628380.4722211.3759-0.08680204.1260014993556876
13Line (opening)0.621620.5520010.7987-1.39600187.9370014992566956
14FF-Winners0.621620.5528510.9195-1.44300190.4360014992566855
15Sonny Moore0.621620.4563811.4017-1.52860205.0670014992566881
16Beck Elo0.621620.4832211.66290.20300214.5380014992567277
17Roundtable0.616000.5000011.9286-0.27760232.9000012677485959
18Sagarin Points0.614860.4765111.2915-2.14560201.6660014991577178
19Turnover Adj. regressio0.614860.4362411.7438-2.40600215.6740014991576584
20Dwiggins0.614860.4765111.51810.45030206.1340014991577178
21Pi-Rate Ratings0.614860.5405411.4007-0.54830208.0000014991578068
22ESPN FPI0.612680.4685311.1271-1.02780197.1010014387556776
23Game Time Decision0.612070.4351911.41870.78690207.8980011771454761
24TeamRankings.com0.608110.5034511.2342-1.22480201.7150014990587372
25Sagarin Rating0.608110.4966411.4851-2.05360205.5630014990587475
26Stat Fox0.608110.5138911.5368-0.27470211.7900014990587470
27Versus Sports Simulator0.608110.4932411.6278-1.00620214.9570014990587375
28Laffaye RWP0.605440.4797311.5690-0.09700212.0050014889587177
29RP Excel0.605440.4825211.8581-3.72300222.4540014889586974
30Dunkel Index0.601350.4832211.2403-0.35370202.2050014989597277
31Odds Shark0.601350.5067612.47463.43970258.4940014989597573
32Roger Johnson0.601350.4429511.5845-2.49030211.5470014989596683
33Pi-Rate Bias0.601350.5202711.4672-0.52210210.0790014989597771
34System Median0.601350.4507011.3587-1.42860203.0420014989596478
35System Average0.601350.4698011.3140-1.41300201.2740014989597079
36Sagarin Golden Mean0.601350.4459511.4741-2.04260208.2000014989596682
37Scoring Effeciency0.594590.4496611.4672-0.40100204.7270014988606782
38Bihl Rankings0.590910.4697011.5717-2.29020214.6310013378546270
39Pythagorean Ratings0.587840.5234911.3422-0.40600201.3970014987617871
40Pi-Rate Mean0.587840.5306111.4161-0.53150208.2760014987617869
41Ashby AccuRatings0.587840.4436611.4295-1.21410202.2400014987616379
42Massey Ratings0.587840.4563811.5041-2.96580209.5310014987616881
43John Coffey0.587840.4161111.6093-0.98850213.0730014987616287
44Points Per Game0.581080.5202711.6164-1.45950216.0870014986627771
45Logistic Regression0.581080.4594612.3696-2.92640242.3150014986626880
46Least Abs. Val Reg0.581080.4966412.0577-3.37570225.7090014986627475
47ARGH Power Ratings0.575760.4000011.7707-1.53010217.9740013376565075
48Lou St. John0.574320.4966411.5787-3.11930210.2740014985637475
49Least Squares0.574320.4496611.8709-2.95650212.5730014985636782
50Stephen Kerns0.574320.4797311.9611-1.39260228.0790014985637177
51LS - w/ team HFA0.574320.4496612.7973-2.93170255.0600014985636782
52PerformanZ Ratings0.567570.4630912.0597-2.86080226.2590014984646980
53Cleanup Hitter0.554050.4620711.7150-0.69420218.8650014982666778
54Talisman Red0.547300.4698012.0993-3.39740224.4550014981677079
55TuringFantasy0.544830.4647911.8082-2.31510216.3060014679666676
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses