Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2021 Second Half Totals

Through 2021-12-06
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Dokter Entropy0.649120.5344812.12881.46400235.916005837203127
2Kasulis ESP20.649120.3793112.6276-0.14480245.941005837202236
3RP Excel0.649120.5714311.8793-1.08620226.549005837203224
4Turnover Adj. regressio0.631580.3448313.09790.36790262.914005836212038
5Game Time Decision0.614040.4423112.87882.05220256.453005835222329
6Pigskin Index0.614040.4736812.99982.41430259.787005835222730
7Donchess Inference0.614040.4000013.06901.32410261.921005835222233
8Kasulis Enhanced Spread0.614040.3965513.0828-0.77590262.082005835222335
9Daniel Curry Index0.614040.4482813.66381.76620283.805005835222632
10Sagarin Recent0.614040.3448313.72641.05780282.933005835222038
11Line (Midweek)0.5964912.34480.51720234.97000583423
12RP Excel 20.596490.5178614.1724-1.48280307.652005834232927
13Dwiggins0.596490.3793113.57412.82070272.347005834232236
14Scoring Effeciency0.596490.4655212.93022.21360253.438005834232731
15ESPN FPI0.578950.4310312.60550.97860248.158005833242533
16Dan Hanson0.578950.5000013.45970.18830274.616005833242929
17Versus Sports Simulator0.578950.4210513.45331.15020279.415005833242433
18Sagarin Rating0.578950.4482812.99470.87190255.809005833242632
19Pi-Rate Bias0.578950.5172412.91381.72410267.478005833243028
20Pi-Rate Ratings0.578950.5614012.86571.65530264.138005833243225
21Stat Fox0.578950.5535712.79291.96600261.718005833243125
22Least Abs. Val Reg0.578950.5172412.7895-1.03430259.713005833243028
23TeamRankings.com0.578950.4821412.67931.01030251.892005833242729
24Sagarin Points0.578950.4827612.62710.66360244.809005833242830
25Computer Adjusted Line0.578950.5588212.34480.55170234.633005833241915
26Line (updated)0.578950.6333312.28450.52590233.189005833241911
27Pi-Rate Mean0.561400.5344812.83101.71380263.682005832253127
28PerformanZ Ratings0.561400.4482813.6157-0.54710285.648005832252632
29ARGH Power Ratings0.561400.3272713.4871-0.00430272.788005832251837
30Bihl Rankings0.561400.3793113.4247-0.11160275.930005832252236
31Sonny Moore0.561400.3448313.26470.69980260.735005832252038
32Points Per Game0.561400.5000013.08810.44050274.400005832252929
33System Median0.561400.3636413.03100.96170257.503005832252035
34Sagarin Golden Mean0.561400.3965512.98220.99020257.499005832252335
35Dunkel Index0.561400.4137912.95411.54860257.127005832252434
36Massey Ratings0.561400.4137912.9340-0.79600258.211005832252434
37System Average0.561400.4137912.91260.88020254.175005832252434
38Pythagorean Ratings0.561400.5000012.90121.94740253.368005832252929
39Line (opening)0.561400.5111112.41380.74140236.137005832252322
40Ashby AccuRatings0.561400.4181813.00001.34550252.654005832252332
41Beck Elo0.543860.4482813.74833.01930285.758005831262632
42Laffaye RWP0.543860.3275914.05261.68740295.054005831261939
43Odds Shark0.543860.4912313.66724.87070311.595005831262829
44Stephen Kerns0.543860.4482813.39141.66550287.004005831262632
45Roger Johnson0.543860.3275913.3716-0.38640269.592005831261939
46FF-Winners0.543860.5581412.53450.74140240.456005831262419
47Lou St. John0.526320.5172412.7503-1.12790246.624005830273028
48Least Squares0.526320.3965513.2491-0.96430258.620005830272335
49Logistic Regression0.508770.4210513.6217-0.47170291.781005829282433
50Roundtable0.508770.3818213.77601.53470294.571005829282134
51TuringFantasy0.491230.4655213.1552-0.22410255.051005828292731
52Talisman Red0.491230.4310313.6943-1.46160272.858005828292533
53John Coffey0.491230.3103413.70831.43210282.824005828291840
54Cleanup Hitter0.473680.4107113.38842.19880270.412005827302333
55LS - w/ team HFA0.473680.4482814.8550-0.22780335.949005827302632
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses