ThePredictionTracker NFL RESULTS

Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2017 Second Half Totals

Through 2018-02-05

Rank	System	Pct. Correct	Against Spread	Absolute Error	Bias	Mean Square Error	games	suw	sul	atsw	atsl
1	Least Abs. Val Reg	0.72593	0.54331	9.9477	-0.90460	168.85200	135	98	37	69	58
2	Lou St. John	0.72593	0.51538	9.8064	-1.62580	161.82700	135	98	37	67	63
3	Computer Adjusted Line	0.71852	0.57143	9.4741	-1.05930	151.62900	135	97	38	56	42
4	Game Time Decision	0.71852	0.56780	9.5406	-0.28830	155.54400	135	97	38	67	51
5	TeamRankings.com	0.71852	0.57364	9.7393	-0.03410	168.32700	135	97	38	74	55
6	ProComputerGambler	0.71852	0.47692	9.7837	-2.01600	160.43600	135	97	38	62	68
7	Pi-Rate Mean	0.71852	0.55039	9.7991	-0.15170	165.31300	135	97	38	71	58
8	ESPN FPI	0.71852	0.54615	9.8516	0.57360	166.38000	135	97	38	71	59
9	Sagarin Golden Mean	0.71852	0.53077	9.9876	-0.70780	172.31900	135	97	38	69	61
10	ComPughter Ratings	0.71852	0.56154	10.0567	-1.04250	173.26600	135	97	38	73	57
11	Sonny Moore	0.71852	0.60000	10.1067	-0.46460	170.11300	135	97	38	78	52
12	Stephen Kerns	0.71852	0.54615	10.3964	-1.34880	176.02100	135	97	38	71	59
13	Line (updated)	0.71852	0.62222	9.3926	-1.08890	150.31000	135	97	38	56	34
14	TheSportsCruncher	0.71538	0.52846	9.7315	-1.26850	149.18700	130	93	37	65	58
15	Roger Johnson	0.71111	0.53077	9.9773	-1.56930	165.77000	135	96	39	69	61
16	Daniel Curry Index	0.71111	0.53077	10.6432	-0.40070	181.45600	135	96	39	69	61
17	Bihl Rankings	0.71111	0.53077	10.0916	0.26690	170.84500	135	96	39	69	61
18	John Coffey	0.71111	0.56154	10.0138	-0.44090	165.55200	135	96	39	73	57
19	Least Squares	0.71111	0.57031	9.9021	-1.74270	165.25200	135	96	39	73	55
20	Sagarin Rating	0.71111	0.51538	9.8153	-0.79430	164.92000	135	96	39	67	63
21	Donchess Inference	0.71111	0.58462	9.6147	-0.25580	158.65700	135	96	39	76	54
22	Roundtable	0.70992	0.58678	10.7250	-0.54170	192.23200	131	93	38	71	50
23	ARGH Power Ratings	0.70677	0.55372	9.9229	-1.00190	163.37500	133	94	39	67	54
24	Line (Midweek)	0.70370		9.6185	-0.98890	155.98300	135	95	40
25	Pythagorean Ratings	0.70370	0.55385	9.7318	-0.28130	163.44300	135	95	40	72	58
26	Stat Fox	0.70370	0.55200	9.7556	-0.19940	166.69100	135	95	40	69	56
27	Massey Ratings	0.70370	0.54615	9.9701	-1.11490	167.45400	135	95	40	71	59
28	YourLinx	0.70370	0.53846	10.1853	-0.34670	175.43400	135	95	40	70	60
29	Talisman Red	0.69630	0.44615	10.3849	-1.66500	178.67600	135	94	41	58	72
30	FF-Winners	0.69630	0.52066	10.1852	-0.64440	180.95200	135	94	41	63	58
31	Ashby AccuRatings	0.69630	0.46032	10.0815	-0.96980	170.45700	135	94	41	58	68
32	Dwiggins	0.69630	0.51938	9.9381	-0.45740	165.61000	135	94	41	67	62
33	Pi-Rate Ratings	0.69630	0.57480	9.8207	-0.17330	164.48400	135	94	41	73	54
34	Line (opening)	0.69630	0.57843	9.5370	-0.87040	152.79300	135	94	41	59	43
35	ThePowerRank.com	0.69630	0.53125	9.9913	-0.58210	168.29800	135	94	41	68	60
36	Steven Jens	0.69106	0.52941	9.9471	0.70660	165.33100	123	85	38	63	56
37	System Average	0.68889	0.55814	9.8115	-0.70730	162.78900	135	93	42	72	57
38	Sagarin Points	0.68889	0.55385	9.8360	-0.77880	166.37900	135	93	42	72	58
39	Pi-Rate Bias	0.68889	0.57480	9.8511	-0.15020	164.05100	135	93	42	73	54
40	Dokter Entropy	0.68889	0.50769	9.9496	-1.03610	164.04000	135	93	42	66	64
41	Covers.com	0.68889	0.52033	10.0888	-0.12590	176.41100	135	93	42	64	59
42	Beck Elo	0.68889	0.53846	10.0895	-1.04770	167.10700	135	93	42	70	60
43	Sagarin Recent	0.68889	0.50000	10.1701	-1.13800	166.28900	135	93	42	64	64
44	Logistic Regression	0.68889	0.50388	10.3101	-1.76000	172.47100	135	93	42	65	64
45	Turnover Adj. regressio	0.68889	0.47692	10.3694	-1.64820	172.38700	135	93	42	62	68
46	Dunkel Index	0.68889	0.53488	11.4865	-0.09330	217.53400	135	93	42	69	60
47	RP Excel 2	0.68702	0.49593	11.3282	-0.53440	206.05900	131	90	41	61	62
48	Scoring Effeciency	0.68148	0.48462	9.8944	-0.26530	166.81400	135	92	43	63	67
49	System Median	0.68148	0.56250	9.8129	-0.67850	162.52800	135	92	43	72	56
50	Turner Rateform	0.68148	0.53488	10.0769	-0.08340	174.18900	135	92	43	69	60
51	Laffaye RWP	0.67619	0.57426	10.0610	-0.52920	172.47200	105	71	34	58	43
52	Kasulis ESP2	0.67407	0.50820	9.8007	-0.91480	160.18800	135	91	44	62	60
53	Kasulis Enhanced Spread	0.67407	0.52381	9.9504	-1.00220	165.44300	135	91	44	66	60
54	Pigskin Index	0.66667	0.53279	9.8076	-0.05850	163.57000	135	90	45	65	57
55	LS - w/ team HFA	0.66667	0.46457	10.5957	-1.55420	187.88900	135	90	45	59	68
56	NutShell Sports	0.66667	0.53125	11.6109	-0.73280	231.39500	135	90	45	68	60
57	Dan Hanson	0.65926	0.45385	10.9035	-1.09470	185.63500	135	89	46	59	71
58	What If Sports	0.65926	0.39535	10.9304	-2.81040	191.03300	135	89	46	51	78
59	PerformanZ Ratings	0.65926	0.53077	10.3761	-1.02640	171.95200	135	89	46	69	61
60	Kalin Ratings	0.65649	0.53175	9.9947	-0.81140	169.34700	131	86	45	67	59
61	Lee Burdorf	0.65414	0.50000	10.8977	-0.53980	191.13000	133	87	46	64	64
62	Points Per Game	0.65185	0.48462	10.5478	-1.26630	185.49600	135	88	47	63	67
63	Cleanup Hitter	0.65185	0.49600	10.7258	-0.71070	192.36500	135	88	47	62	63
64	IronRank.com	0.64228	0.44538	10.9461	-0.44870	199.44200	123	79	44	53	66
65	RP Excel	0.60305	0.42975	12.1756	-1.39690	235.06100	131	79	52	52	69

pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses