Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)
2017 Second Half Totals
Through 2018-02-05
Rank |
System |
Pct. Correct |
Against Spread |
Absolute Error |
Bias |
Mean Square Error |
games |
suw |
sul |
atsw |
atsl |
1 | Least Abs. Val Reg | 0.72593 | 0.54331 | 9.9477 | -0.90460 | 168.85200 | 135 | 98 | 37 | 69 | 58 |
2 | Lou St. John | 0.72593 | 0.51538 | 9.8064 | -1.62580 | 161.82700 | 135 | 98 | 37 | 67 | 63 |
3 | Computer Adjusted Line | 0.71852 | 0.57143 | 9.4741 | -1.05930 | 151.62900 | 135 | 97 | 38 | 56 | 42 |
4 | Game Time Decision | 0.71852 | 0.56780 | 9.5406 | -0.28830 | 155.54400 | 135 | 97 | 38 | 67 | 51 |
5 | TeamRankings.com | 0.71852 | 0.57364 | 9.7393 | -0.03410 | 168.32700 | 135 | 97 | 38 | 74 | 55 |
6 | ProComputerGambler | 0.71852 | 0.47692 | 9.7837 | -2.01600 | 160.43600 | 135 | 97 | 38 | 62 | 68 |
7 | Pi-Rate Mean | 0.71852 | 0.55039 | 9.7991 | -0.15170 | 165.31300 | 135 | 97 | 38 | 71 | 58 |
8 | ESPN FPI | 0.71852 | 0.54615 | 9.8516 | 0.57360 | 166.38000 | 135 | 97 | 38 | 71 | 59 |
9 | Sagarin Golden Mean | 0.71852 | 0.53077 | 9.9876 | -0.70780 | 172.31900 | 135 | 97 | 38 | 69 | 61 |
10 | ComPughter Ratings | 0.71852 | 0.56154 | 10.0567 | -1.04250 | 173.26600 | 135 | 97 | 38 | 73 | 57 |
11 | Sonny Moore | 0.71852 | 0.60000 | 10.1067 | -0.46460 | 170.11300 | 135 | 97 | 38 | 78 | 52 |
12 | Stephen Kerns | 0.71852 | 0.54615 | 10.3964 | -1.34880 | 176.02100 | 135 | 97 | 38 | 71 | 59 |
13 | Line (updated) | 0.71852 | 0.62222 | 9.3926 | -1.08890 | 150.31000 | 135 | 97 | 38 | 56 | 34 |
14 | TheSportsCruncher | 0.71538 | 0.52846 | 9.7315 | -1.26850 | 149.18700 | 130 | 93 | 37 | 65 | 58 |
15 | Roger Johnson | 0.71111 | 0.53077 | 9.9773 | -1.56930 | 165.77000 | 135 | 96 | 39 | 69 | 61 |
16 | Daniel Curry Index | 0.71111 | 0.53077 | 10.6432 | -0.40070 | 181.45600 | 135 | 96 | 39 | 69 | 61 |
17 | Bihl Rankings | 0.71111 | 0.53077 | 10.0916 | 0.26690 | 170.84500 | 135 | 96 | 39 | 69 | 61 |
18 | John Coffey | 0.71111 | 0.56154 | 10.0138 | -0.44090 | 165.55200 | 135 | 96 | 39 | 73 | 57 |
19 | Least Squares | 0.71111 | 0.57031 | 9.9021 | -1.74270 | 165.25200 | 135 | 96 | 39 | 73 | 55 |
20 | Sagarin Rating | 0.71111 | 0.51538 | 9.8153 | -0.79430 | 164.92000 | 135 | 96 | 39 | 67 | 63 |
21 | Donchess Inference | 0.71111 | 0.58462 | 9.6147 | -0.25580 | 158.65700 | 135 | 96 | 39 | 76 | 54 |
22 | Roundtable | 0.70992 | 0.58678 | 10.7250 | -0.54170 | 192.23200 | 131 | 93 | 38 | 71 | 50 |
23 | ARGH Power Ratings | 0.70677 | 0.55372 | 9.9229 | -1.00190 | 163.37500 | 133 | 94 | 39 | 67 | 54 |
24 | Line (Midweek) | 0.70370 | | 9.6185 | -0.98890 | 155.98300 | 135 | 95 | 40 | | |
25 | Pythagorean Ratings | 0.70370 | 0.55385 | 9.7318 | -0.28130 | 163.44300 | 135 | 95 | 40 | 72 | 58 |
26 | Stat Fox | 0.70370 | 0.55200 | 9.7556 | -0.19940 | 166.69100 | 135 | 95 | 40 | 69 | 56 |
27 | Massey Ratings | 0.70370 | 0.54615 | 9.9701 | -1.11490 | 167.45400 | 135 | 95 | 40 | 71 | 59 |
28 | YourLinx | 0.70370 | 0.53846 | 10.1853 | -0.34670 | 175.43400 | 135 | 95 | 40 | 70 | 60 |
29 | Talisman Red | 0.69630 | 0.44615 | 10.3849 | -1.66500 | 178.67600 | 135 | 94 | 41 | 58 | 72 |
30 | FF-Winners | 0.69630 | 0.52066 | 10.1852 | -0.64440 | 180.95200 | 135 | 94 | 41 | 63 | 58 |
31 | Ashby AccuRatings | 0.69630 | 0.46032 | 10.0815 | -0.96980 | 170.45700 | 135 | 94 | 41 | 58 | 68 |
32 | Dwiggins | 0.69630 | 0.51938 | 9.9381 | -0.45740 | 165.61000 | 135 | 94 | 41 | 67 | 62 |
33 | Pi-Rate Ratings | 0.69630 | 0.57480 | 9.8207 | -0.17330 | 164.48400 | 135 | 94 | 41 | 73 | 54 |
34 | Line (opening) | 0.69630 | 0.57843 | 9.5370 | -0.87040 | 152.79300 | 135 | 94 | 41 | 59 | 43 |
35 | ThePowerRank.com | 0.69630 | 0.53125 | 9.9913 | -0.58210 | 168.29800 | 135 | 94 | 41 | 68 | 60 |
36 | Steven Jens | 0.69106 | 0.52941 | 9.9471 | 0.70660 | 165.33100 | 123 | 85 | 38 | 63 | 56 |
37 | System Average | 0.68889 | 0.55814 | 9.8115 | -0.70730 | 162.78900 | 135 | 93 | 42 | 72 | 57 |
38 | Sagarin Points | 0.68889 | 0.55385 | 9.8360 | -0.77880 | 166.37900 | 135 | 93 | 42 | 72 | 58 |
39 | Pi-Rate Bias | 0.68889 | 0.57480 | 9.8511 | -0.15020 | 164.05100 | 135 | 93 | 42 | 73 | 54 |
40 | Dokter Entropy | 0.68889 | 0.50769 | 9.9496 | -1.03610 | 164.04000 | 135 | 93 | 42 | 66 | 64 |
41 | Covers.com | 0.68889 | 0.52033 | 10.0888 | -0.12590 | 176.41100 | 135 | 93 | 42 | 64 | 59 |
42 | Beck Elo | 0.68889 | 0.53846 | 10.0895 | -1.04770 | 167.10700 | 135 | 93 | 42 | 70 | 60 |
43 | Sagarin Recent | 0.68889 | 0.50000 | 10.1701 | -1.13800 | 166.28900 | 135 | 93 | 42 | 64 | 64 |
44 | Logistic Regression | 0.68889 | 0.50388 | 10.3101 | -1.76000 | 172.47100 | 135 | 93 | 42 | 65 | 64 |
45 | Turnover Adj. regressio | 0.68889 | 0.47692 | 10.3694 | -1.64820 | 172.38700 | 135 | 93 | 42 | 62 | 68 |
46 | Dunkel Index | 0.68889 | 0.53488 | 11.4865 | -0.09330 | 217.53400 | 135 | 93 | 42 | 69 | 60 |
47 | RP Excel 2 | 0.68702 | 0.49593 | 11.3282 | -0.53440 | 206.05900 | 131 | 90 | 41 | 61 | 62 |
48 | Scoring Effeciency | 0.68148 | 0.48462 | 9.8944 | -0.26530 | 166.81400 | 135 | 92 | 43 | 63 | 67 |
49 | System Median | 0.68148 | 0.56250 | 9.8129 | -0.67850 | 162.52800 | 135 | 92 | 43 | 72 | 56 |
50 | Turner Rateform | 0.68148 | 0.53488 | 10.0769 | -0.08340 | 174.18900 | 135 | 92 | 43 | 69 | 60 |
51 | Laffaye RWP | 0.67619 | 0.57426 | 10.0610 | -0.52920 | 172.47200 | 105 | 71 | 34 | 58 | 43 |
52 | Kasulis ESP2 | 0.67407 | 0.50820 | 9.8007 | -0.91480 | 160.18800 | 135 | 91 | 44 | 62 | 60 |
53 | Kasulis Enhanced Spread | 0.67407 | 0.52381 | 9.9504 | -1.00220 | 165.44300 | 135 | 91 | 44 | 66 | 60 |
54 | Pigskin Index | 0.66667 | 0.53279 | 9.8076 | -0.05850 | 163.57000 | 135 | 90 | 45 | 65 | 57 |
55 | LS - w/ team HFA | 0.66667 | 0.46457 | 10.5957 | -1.55420 | 187.88900 | 135 | 90 | 45 | 59 | 68 |
56 | NutShell Sports | 0.66667 | 0.53125 | 11.6109 | -0.73280 | 231.39500 | 135 | 90 | 45 | 68 | 60 |
57 | Dan Hanson | 0.65926 | 0.45385 | 10.9035 | -1.09470 | 185.63500 | 135 | 89 | 46 | 59 | 71 |
58 | What If Sports | 0.65926 | 0.39535 | 10.9304 | -2.81040 | 191.03300 | 135 | 89 | 46 | 51 | 78 |
59 | PerformanZ Ratings | 0.65926 | 0.53077 | 10.3761 | -1.02640 | 171.95200 | 135 | 89 | 46 | 69 | 61 |
60 | Kalin Ratings | 0.65649 | 0.53175 | 9.9947 | -0.81140 | 169.34700 | 131 | 86 | 45 | 67 | 59 |
61 | Lee Burdorf | 0.65414 | 0.50000 | 10.8977 | -0.53980 | 191.13000 | 133 | 87 | 46 | 64 | 64 |
62 | Points Per Game | 0.65185 | 0.48462 | 10.5478 | -1.26630 | 185.49600 | 135 | 88 | 47 | 63 | 67 |
63 | Cleanup Hitter | 0.65185 | 0.49600 | 10.7258 | -0.71070 | 192.36500 | 135 | 88 | 47 | 62 | 63 |
64 | IronRank.com | 0.64228 | 0.44538 | 10.9461 | -0.44870 | 199.44200 | 123 | 79 | 44 | 53 | 66 |
65 | RP Excel | 0.60305 | 0.42975 | 12.1756 | -1.39690 | 235.06100 | 131 | 79 | 52 | 52 | 69 |
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread = percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses