ThePredictionTracker NFL RESULTS

Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2022 Second Half Totals

Through 2023-02-13

Rank	System	Pct. Correct	Against Spread	Absolute Error	Bias	Mean Square Error	games	suw	sul	atsw	atsl
1	Sagarin Points	0.72109	0.53472	8.8493	-0.04920	139.53500	148	106	41	77	67
2	FF-Winners	0.70748	0.60909	8.6014	-0.41220	129.96500	148	104	43	67	43
3	Sagarin Rating	0.70748	0.52083	8.7928	-0.06220	138.86200	148	104	43	75	69
4	Line (updated)	0.70068	0.56322	8.6385	-0.32090	130.48100	148	103	44	49	38
5	Computer Adjusted Line	0.70068	0.54839	8.6689	-0.20270	131.08100	148	103	44	51	42
6	Scoring Effeciency	0.70068	0.46528	9.0612	0.67040	141.00200	148	103	44	67	77
7	Donchess Inference	0.69388	0.53521	9.1270	0.45810	140.60300	148	102	45	76	66
8	Pigskin Index	0.68707	0.51493	8.8986	1.12860	137.23900	148	101	46	69	65
9	Sagarin Golden Mean	0.68707	0.50000	9.1376	-0.02610	145.89600	148	101	46	72	72
10	Versus Sports Simulator	0.68707	0.45833	9.2503	0.45390	143.41900	148	101	46	66	78
11	System Median	0.68027	0.49286	8.9291	0.19130	136.22800	148	100	47	69	71
12	Pi-Rate Ratings	0.68027	0.48227	9.5277	0.57640	147.38800	148	100	47	68	73
13	John Coffey	0.68027	0.46528	9.3376	0.40210	145.02000	148	100	47	67	77
14	Massey Ratings	0.68027	0.48611	9.1520	-0.60390	142.48200	148	100	47	70	74
15	ESPN FPI	0.68027	0.53472	9.1413	-0.28550	140.84700	148	100	47	77	67
16	Game Time Decision	0.68027	0.51429	8.9696	1.02380	136.77400	148	100	47	72	68
17	System Average	0.68027	0.50000	8.9520	0.21740	136.51900	148	100	47	72	72
18	Cleanup Hitter	0.68027	0.55797	8.8651	0.39900	138.41300	148	100	47	77	61
19	Pi-Rate Bias	0.67347	0.47183	9.4561	0.56820	144.40600	148	99	48	67	75
20	Pi-Rate Mean	0.67347	0.45833	9.4264	0.54670	144.92900	148	99	48	66	78
21	Pythagorean Ratings	0.67347	0.47222	9.1261	0.78080	138.93800	148	99	48	68	76
22	Ashby AccuRatings	0.67347	0.48148	9.0880	-0.01950	142.89200	148	99	48	65	70
23	Least Squares	0.67347	0.51389	9.0666	-0.12110	139.57400	148	99	48	74	70
24	Turnover Adj. regressio	0.67347	0.52083	9.0412	-0.60570	140.26000	148	99	48	75	69
25	Roger Johnson	0.67347	0.50350	9.0050	-0.22360	139.10000	148	99	48	72	71
26	TeamRankings.com	0.67347	0.52448	8.9906	-0.29180	139.69500	148	99	48	75	68
27	Sagarin Recent	0.67347	0.52778	8.7537	-0.22990	137.80200	148	99	48	76	68
28	Sonny Moore	0.67347	0.46528	9.0664	0.02040	138.17400	148	99	48	67	77
29	Line (Midweek)	0.66667		8.7568	-0.51350	132.36600	148	98	49
30	Beck Elo	0.66667	0.51389	9.0021	1.19720	141.53600	148	98	49	74	70
31	Dokter Entropy	0.66667	0.45455	9.1430	0.32590	140.17400	148	98	49	65	78
32	Lou St. John	0.66667	0.46528	9.1587	0.00260	142.09700	148	98	49	67	77
33	Dwiggins	0.66667	0.53472	9.3787	1.65980	149.15700	148	98	49	77	67
34	Stat Fox	0.66667	0.45185	9.3921	1.21660	143.63700	148	98	49	61	74
35	PerformanZ Ratings	0.65306	0.47917	9.6070	-0.66360	147.50300	148	96	51	69	75
36	Talisman Red	0.64626	0.51748	9.2959	0.59360	145.62700	148	95	52	74	69
37	Dunkel Index	0.64626	0.46528	9.4222	-1.82220	147.04300	148	95	52	67	77
38	Least Abs. Val Reg	0.64626	0.53846	9.0565	-0.22720	142.77100	148	95	52	77	66
39	Line (opening)	0.64626	0.50909	8.9696	-0.32770	135.20400	148	95	52	56	54
40	RP Excel 2	0.65278	0.47857	9.8690	0.26900	152.93100	145	94	50	67	73
41	Daniel Curry Index	0.63946	0.44444	9.7321	0.03720	157.13000	148	94	53	64	80
42	Roundtable	0.67391	0.50000	9.5970	1.03630	151.06900	139	93	45	65	65
43	Laffaye RWP	0.65035	0.52143	9.4818	1.00710	147.66000	144	93	50	73	67
44	Odds Shark	0.63699	0.48592	10.4123	3.88580	167.75100	147	93	53	69	73
45	Stephen Kerns	0.63265	0.48252	9.3200	-0.08680	145.29100	148	93	54	69	74
46	Points Per Game	0.63265	0.48951	9.3363	-0.09260	143.13400	148	93	54	70	73
47	ARGH Power Ratings	0.62585	0.49254	9.3074	-1.38850	145.28600	148	92	55	66	68
48	LS - w/ team HFA	0.61905	0.44755	10.0173	-0.29920	164.43100	148	91	56	64	79
49	Logistic Regression	0.60544	0.54167	9.7247	-1.76590	162.12700	148	89	58	78	66
50	RP Excel	0.60417	0.44882	9.8069	-0.41380	159.98500	145	87	57	57	70
51	Dan Hanson	0.63359	0.49219	9.3674	-0.18300	148.70800	132	83	48	63	65
52	Bihl Rankings	0.63248	0.51282	9.3288	-1.62470	145.68400	118	74	43	60	57
53	Brent Craig	0.53571	0.34615	9.8311	3.51110	170.15900	28	15	13	9	17
54	Kasulis Enhanced Spread	0.53333	0.64286	8.3067	1.42670	107.77800	15	8	7	9	5
55	Kasulis ESP2	0.46667	0.60000	8.3933	1.08670	107.77800	15	7	8	9	6

pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses