Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2020 Second Half Totals

Through 2021-02-07
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1PerformanZ Ratings0.705880.5496210.12010.14820176.5270013696407259
2System Median0.698530.5572510.11231.52610174.6660013695417358
3Line (Midweek)0.6985310.18380.77210172.764001369541
4System Average0.691180.5190810.15631.64100175.4360013694426863
5Pi-Rate Ratings0.691180.5625010.23891.47290177.5480013694427256
6Lou St. John0.691180.5190810.2503-0.24570176.0960013694426863
7Computer Adjusted Line0.683820.5925910.15810.78310174.7000013693434833
8Pi-Rate Mean0.683820.5736410.19781.48160177.6240013693437455
9Sagarin Points0.683820.5468810.21800.28680175.0640013693437058
10Donchess Inference0.683820.5538510.22651.35000178.6450013693437258
11Pi-Rate Bias0.683820.5714310.26541.48900178.5020013693437254
12Kasulis ESP20.683820.4881910.38090.35590175.8900013693436265
13Covers.com0.683820.5360010.44482.71700184.9160013693436758
14Massey Ratings0.683820.5076910.49870.20740182.3080013693436664
15Line (updated)0.676470.5333310.21320.63240175.8830013692444035
16Kasulis Enhanced Spread0.676470.4846210.7294-0.06910184.2250013692446367
17Pythagorean Ratings0.676470.5496210.54072.61520187.9410013692447259
18Points Per Game0.676470.5801510.53671.69430184.8300013692447655
19Least Abs. Val Reg0.676470.5156310.42870.05060178.1620013692446662
20ProComputerGambler0.676470.5572510.37260.09740181.4950013692447358
21Sagarin Rating0.676470.5801510.13520.27370173.4060013692447655
22Sportsformulator0.679100.5200011.52242.38820208.3010013491436560
23Sagarin Golden Mean0.669120.5648910.13510.31620172.3710013691457457
24Stephen Kerns0.669120.5615410.32572.06250177.6600013691457357
25Sonny Moore0.669120.5419810.43971.90380186.7960013691457160
26Dunkel Index0.669120.4580211.40062.87000218.5840013691456071
27John Coffey0.661760.5038210.41652.41370182.3550013690466665
28ARGH Power Ratings0.661760.5040710.31801.37680179.8850013690466261
29ESPN FPI0.661760.5496210.26691.28240174.9130013690467259
30ThePowerRank.com0.661760.5511810.30150.87500176.8880013690467057
31Daniel Curry Index0.654410.5114510.87822.21010192.0620013689476764
32Logistic Regression0.654410.5076910.83100.04200188.8200013689476664
33Talisman Red0.654410.4961810.7382-0.24220185.4000013689476566
34Least Squares0.654410.5426410.39600.06100178.6200013689477059
35Sagarin Recent0.654410.5496210.38180.25420177.4570013689477259
36TeamRankings.com0.654410.5348810.22951.89710179.2830013689476960
37Line (opening)0.647060.5688110.19121.55150173.0230013688486247
38Dokter Entropy0.647060.5648910.21431.85870176.7520013688487457
39Turnover Adj. regressio0.647060.5648910.52960.37130176.7670013688487457
40Steven Jens0.647060.5419810.69013.98920191.7020013688487160
41Versus Sports Simulator0.639710.5572510.47032.38540187.3680013687497358
42FF-Winners0.639710.4750010.94121.07350189.4470013687495763
43Beck Elo0.639710.5648910.70923.35420191.1900013687497457
44Odds Shark0.639710.5572512.62876.78460244.4960013687497358
45Scoring Effeciency0.639710.5419810.66072.59180192.1020013687497160
46Pigskin Index0.639710.5245910.55882.92710187.6260013687496458
47Ashby AccuRatings0.639710.5396810.47071.75040185.3070013687496858
48LS - w/ team HFA0.649250.5348810.96430.20470211.1370013487476960
49Roundtable0.674420.5322610.64333.35670197.2350012987426658
50Cleanup Hitter0.632350.5234410.84202.29860194.2530013686506761
51Dan Hanson0.632350.4961810.9630-0.88180205.2340013686506566
52TuringFantasy0.625000.4880011.9485-0.21320220.1540013685516164
53Dwiggins0.610290.5343510.86954.04670198.1340013683537061
54Stat Fox0.602940.5433110.77212.81680190.2450013682546958
55Bihl Rankings0.658330.4741410.30320.94130177.7090012079415561
56Game Time Decision0.649120.5094310.77232.57960190.5390011474405452
57RP Excel0.660550.4615411.62391.42200226.3030010972374856
58RP Excel 20.610620.5188713.61060.60180290.9170011369445551
59Steven Jens 20.514020.5728213.87508.64510322.8640010755525944
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses