Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2015 Second Half Totals

Through 2016-02-08
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Talisman Red0.651850.5984810.67540.50810193.2600013588477953
2Nutshell Middle Game0.644440.5396811.18891.92920205.3310013587486858
3ThePowerRank.com0.637040.5757611.14081.66350212.7050013586497656
4Kambour Rating0.637040.5681811.20691.48250210.7800013586497557
5MDS Model0.629630.5454510.99551.77190204.2130013585507260
6Dokter Entropy0.629630.6106911.00791.75090197.0900013585508051
7Pi-Rate Ratings0.629630.5000011.37701.70820209.6800013585506565
8Logistic Regression0.622220.6046510.92710.62350197.6230013584517851
9Kalin Ratings0.622220.6060611.10701.42540201.3490013584518052
10Kasulis ESP20.622220.5116311.18301.01490204.0270013584516663
11Dunkel Index0.622220.5075811.61901.43870217.7960013584516765
12John Coffey0.614810.5681811.22591.89030200.1850013583527557
13RP Excel0.614810.6080011.92591.43280242.7910013583527649
14Pi-Rate Mean0.614810.5419811.44231.74190208.7550013583527160
15Steven Jens0.614810.5303011.40903.02320206.2980013583527062
16YourLinx0.614810.5343511.26762.03190203.8190013583527061
17Sagarin Golden Mean0.614810.5833311.04311.25840198.4540013583527755
18Roundtable0.616540.5238111.67671.94770216.0550013382516660
19Lee Burdorf0.607410.4545512.36442.03440238.4390013582536072
20Dwiggins0.607410.4923111.72591.95080209.2780013582536466
21Stat Fox0.607410.5403211.63701.97790212.6240013582536757
22Pi-Rate Bias0.607410.5538511.47111.80750211.5650013582537258
23Scoring Effeciency0.607410.5190811.32462.00960210.8280013582536863
24ESPN FPI0.607410.5227311.30001.78890207.7050013582536963
25Pythagorean Ratings0.607410.5151511.29811.98980208.2280013582536864
26Donchess Inference0.607410.5757611.16431.96360204.6670013582537656
27IronRank.com0.607410.5909111.15161.69220203.2230013582537854
28Sagarin Points0.607410.5833311.05471.18810199.3920013582537755
29Line (updated)0.607410.6049411.05191.29850196.9540013582534932
30Ashby AccuRatings0.607410.5920010.91131.03080198.4420013582537451
31Daniel Curry Index0.600000.5075811.82982.05370223.7000013581546765
32Lou St. John0.600000.4848511.49520.43590206.9210013581546468
33NutShell Sports0.600000.5384611.29701.64410204.5930013581547060
34Sagarin Recent0.600000.5909111.12961.27300199.5530013581547854
35Computer Adjusted Line0.600000.6352911.06301.36940197.9950013581545431
36System Average0.600000.5461511.14671.37690200.7990013581547159
37Roger Johnson0.592590.5378811.06470.50460198.1540013580557161
38Sagarin Rating0.592590.5757611.06911.24910199.2440013580557656
39System Median0.592590.5658911.10731.36990200.1000013580557356
40ARGH Power Ratings0.592590.5645211.36111.41600202.7440013580557054
41Pigskin Index0.592590.5378211.43702.25430210.4790013580556455
42ComPughter Ratings0.589550.5114511.44811.18660208.9190013479556764
43Turner Rateform0.585190.5227311.45532.29030208.5670013579566963
44Beck Elo0.585190.5151511.41521.39440206.0870013579566864
45What If Sports0.585190.5384611.3126-0.95300208.2150013579567060
46PointShare0.585190.5230811.23930.61960204.3900013579566862
47Kasulis Enhanced Spread0.585190.5454511.22380.68650205.1360013579567260
48DirectorOfInformation.c0.577780.5606111.13511.19490207.4160013578577458
49Dan Hanson0.577780.5151511.69100.90120226.1350013578576864
50Covers.com0.577780.4396611.43351.93300210.0800013578575165
51Massey Ratings0.570370.5606111.11110.35510197.6770013577587458
52Line (Midweek)0.5703711.25561.39180203.890001357758
53PerformanZ Ratings0.570370.5075811.51690.96000210.9850013577586765
54Least Squares0.570370.5075811.55180.40260211.5380013577586765
55CPA Retro Rankings0.570370.5303011.68070.26240210.4940013577587062
56Sonny Moore0.562960.5530311.35591.54460206.5820013576597359
57FF-Winners0.562960.5166711.52592.08210216.0800013576596258
58Sportrends0.585940.4869611.50012.56290208.6120012875535659
59Least Abs. Val Reg0.555560.5546911.38351.22630214.2200013575607157
60Turnover Adj. regressio0.555560.5151511.62180.74890218.3680013575606864
61LS - w/ team HFA0.548150.5151512.17540.06230240.6820013574616864
62Line (opening)0.548150.4772711.20001.38060204.1090013574614246
63Cleanup Hitter0.548150.5590611.40761.69050223.6780013574617156
64CPA Rankings0.548150.5378811.8342-0.09750213.2200013574617161
65Points Per Game0.540740.5303011.58630.81880218.7940013573627062
66Laffaye RWP0.579830.5603411.04870.96050196.9940011969506551
67Game Time Decision0.603600.4285711.20732.36830205.0680011167444256
68ProComputerGambler0.593410.5505611.36670.91560220.770009154374940
69Foreshadow Sports0.549450.3953512.61541.45050242.944009150413452
70Bihl Rankings0.509800.4509812.74674.28180236.233005126252328
71Stephen Kerns0.000001.0000015.00000.000000.0000010110
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses