Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2021 Second Half Totals

Through 2022-02-13
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Line (Midweek)0.6351410.9262-1.72480190.051001499454
2Line (updated)0.641890.6263710.7013-1.56040183.6430014995535734
3Computer Adjusted Line0.635140.5900010.7685-1.58050185.7370014994545941
4FF-Winners0.621620.5528510.9195-1.44300190.4360014992566855
5Line (opening)0.621620.5520010.7987-1.39600187.9370014992566956
6Roundtable0.616000.5000011.9286-0.27760232.9000012677485959
7Game Time Decision0.612070.4351911.41870.78690207.8980011771454761
8RP Excel 20.630140.5314712.8912-2.79590277.1240014792547667
9Pi-Rate Ratings0.614860.5405411.4007-0.54830208.0000014991578068
10Pi-Rate Mean0.587840.5306111.4161-0.53150208.2760014987617869
11Stat Fox0.608110.5138911.5368-0.27470211.7900014990587470
12Bihl Rankings0.590910.4697011.5717-2.29020214.6310013378546270
13Points Per Game0.581080.5202711.6164-1.45950216.0870014986627771
14Pi-Rate Bias0.601350.5202711.4672-0.52210210.0790014989597771
15Pythagorean Ratings0.587840.5234911.3422-0.40600201.3970014987617871
16Daniel Curry Index0.628380.5234911.7609-0.50020216.1140014993557871
17TeamRankings.com0.608110.5034511.2342-1.22480201.7150014990587372
18Dokter Entropy0.635140.5100711.1237-0.22420197.0560014994547673
19Odds Shark0.601350.5067612.47463.43970258.4940014989597573
20RP Excel0.605440.4825211.8581-3.72300222.4540014889586974
21Least Abs. Val Reg0.581080.4966412.0577-3.37570225.7090014986627475
22Lou St. John0.574320.4966411.5787-3.11930210.2740014985637475
23Sagarin Rating0.608110.4966411.4851-2.05360205.5630014990587475
24Versus Sports Simulator0.608110.4932411.6278-1.00620214.9570014990587375
25ARGH Power Ratings0.575760.4000011.7707-1.53010217.9740013376565075
26Pigskin Index0.628380.4722211.3759-0.08680204.1260014993556876
27ESPN FPI0.612680.4685311.1271-1.02780197.1010014387556776
28TuringFantasy0.544830.4647911.8082-2.31510216.3060014679666676
29Dunkel Index0.601350.4832211.2403-0.35370202.2050014989597277
30Stephen Kerns0.574320.4797311.9611-1.39260228.0790014985637177
31Laffaye RWP0.605440.4797311.5690-0.09700212.0050014889587177
32Beck Elo0.621620.4832211.66290.20300214.5380014992567277
33System Median0.601350.4507011.3587-1.42860203.0420014989596478
34Cleanup Hitter0.554050.4620711.7150-0.69420218.8650014982666778
35Dwiggins0.614860.4765111.51810.45030206.1340014991577178
36Sagarin Points0.614860.4765111.2915-2.14560201.6660014991577178
37Talisman Red0.547300.4698012.0993-3.39740224.4550014981677079
38System Average0.601350.4698011.3140-1.41300201.2740014989597079
39Dan Hanson0.635140.4698011.9835-2.00120229.2760014994547079
40Ashby AccuRatings0.587840.4436611.4295-1.21410202.2400014987616379
41PerformanZ Ratings0.567570.4630912.0597-2.86080226.2590014984646980
42Logistic Regression0.581080.4594612.3696-2.92640242.3150014986626880
43Donchess Inference0.648650.4452111.1128-1.09530197.3060014996526581
44Sonny Moore0.621620.4563811.4017-1.52860205.0670014992566881
45Massey Ratings0.587840.4563811.5041-2.96580209.5310014987616881
46Least Squares0.574320.4496611.8709-2.95650212.5730014985636782
47LS - w/ team HFA0.574320.4496612.7973-2.93170255.0600014985636782
48Scoring Effeciency0.594590.4496611.4672-0.40100204.7270014988606782
49Kasulis ESP20.668920.4421811.1530-2.15840196.4340014999496582
50Sagarin Golden Mean0.601350.4459511.4741-2.04260208.2000014989596682
51Roger Johnson0.601350.4429511.5845-2.49030211.5470014989596683
52Turnover Adj. regressio0.614860.4362411.7438-2.40600215.6740014991576584
53Kasulis Enhanced Spread0.628380.4256811.6886-2.57850211.0010014993556385
54Sagarin Recent0.648650.4189212.0138-1.96090221.2300014996526286
55John Coffey0.587840.4161111.6093-0.98850213.0730014987616287
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses