Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2021 Second Half Totals

Through 2022-01-17
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Kasulis ESP20.680850.4285711.4817-2.39580204.7680014296456080
2Donchess Inference0.659570.4388511.4282-1.32960205.4420014293486178
3Sagarin Recent0.659570.3971612.3775-2.19250230.7040014293485685
4Line (updated)0.652480.6263710.9648-1.81690190.7650014292495734
5Computer Adjusted Line0.645390.5858611.0387-1.83450193.0200014291505841
6Line (Midweek)0.6453911.2007-1.98940197.488001429150
7Dokter Entropy0.645390.5211311.3746-0.48700204.1290014291507468
8Daniel Curry Index0.645390.5211312.0118-0.81500223.8210014291507468
9Kasulis Enhanced Spread0.645390.4113512.0472-2.80630220.1860014291505883
10Dan Hanson0.645390.4647912.2820-2.37060238.0170014291506676
11RP Excel 20.642860.5289913.1418-3.19860286.0340014190507365
12Pigskin Index0.638300.4744511.6761-0.26710212.2370014290516572
13Dwiggins0.631210.4647911.80670.22500214.2640014289526676
14Sonny Moore0.631210.4366211.7563-1.69900213.9900014289526280
15FF-Winners0.631210.5423711.2113-1.69010198.1070014289526454
16Line (opening)0.631210.5339011.0986-1.64080195.6430014289526355
17ESPN FPI0.629630.4632411.3945-1.25020204.9170013685506373
18Sagarin Points0.624110.4718311.6002-2.40820209.8300014288536775
19Pi-Rate Ratings0.624110.5461011.6712-0.73020216.2790014288537764
20Stat Fox0.624110.5182511.8098-0.47130219.4550014288537166
21Versus Sports Simulator0.624110.5035511.9196-1.21460223.5050014288537170
22Beck Elo0.624110.4718312.00890.05310223.5830014288536775
23Game Time Decision0.623850.4257411.81810.56430218.4670011068414358
24TeamRankings.com0.617020.5072511.5218-1.46970209.6060014287547068
25Sagarin Rating0.617020.4788711.8217-2.30940214.0880014287546874
26Turnover Adj. regressio0.617020.4154912.1475-2.60060225.3560014287545983
27Roundtable0.616000.5000011.9286-0.27760232.9000012677485959
28Laffaye RWP0.614290.4893611.8530-0.33780220.4350014186546972
29RP Excel0.609930.4817512.1479-3.92250230.3210014286556671
30Odds Shark0.609930.5177312.68823.25150265.4630014286557368
31System Average0.609930.4577511.6328-1.65060209.5530014286556577
32Sagarin Golden Mean0.609930.4468111.7843-2.33300216.4810014286556378
33Pi-Rate Bias0.609930.5281711.7388-0.70200218.3950014286557567
34Roger Johnson0.609930.4225411.9342-2.75880220.6390014286556082
35Dunkel Index0.609930.5000011.4425-0.62040208.9180014286557171
36System Median0.609930.4370411.6787-1.66630211.3730014286555976
37Bihl Rankings0.608000.4480011.9637-2.55100224.9860012676495669
38Scoring Effeciency0.602840.4436611.7818-0.59610213.2900014285566379
39Ashby AccuRatings0.602840.4592611.7042-1.42190209.8460014285566273
40Pythagorean Ratings0.602840.5211311.6404-0.60080209.6800014285567468
41Massey Ratings0.602840.4436611.8344-3.22750218.3280014285566379
42Pi-Rate Mean0.595740.5357111.7000-0.70420216.7240014284577565
43Points Per Game0.595740.5177311.9196-1.67650224.8730014284577368
44John Coffey0.595740.3943711.9500-1.23480221.9400014284575686
45LS - w/ team HFA0.588650.4436613.1000-3.21660264.3210014283586379
46Least Abs. Val Reg0.588650.4859212.4087-3.71510235.2840014283586973
47Lou St. John0.588650.4929611.8549-3.46250218.1500014283587072
48ARGH Power Ratings0.584000.3644112.1865-1.77380228.6650012673524375
49Least Squares0.581560.4366212.2337-3.22350221.6090014282596280
50Stephen Kerns0.581560.4609912.3156-1.62320237.7900014282596576
51PerformanZ Ratings0.581560.4507012.3845-3.07230235.4560014282596478
52Logistic Regression0.581560.4326212.8035-3.20750253.3310014282596180
53Cleanup Hitter0.567380.4565212.0144-0.89390227.7460014280616375
54Talisman Red0.553190.4577512.4697-3.63690233.8450014278636577
55TuringFantasy0.543480.4518512.1655-2.52520225.8750013975636174
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses