Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2010 Season Totals

Through
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Cover810.660470.5123210.5856-0.31110190.824002151427310499
2Line (opening)0.657890.5257710.80080.74440194.669002661759110292
3Bihl Rankings0.646340.5652210.77752.44270204.25200164106589170
4Line (updated)0.6441910.82020.70790194.6100026717295
5Yarnell0.643980.5376311.54571.27520214.351001911236810086
6Computer Adjusted Line0.640450.5061710.82400.69290194.19100267171964140
7Game Time Decision0.640450.5240010.81081.33000194.3450026717196131119
8Michael Robert Ratings0.636700.5115410.83620.35150198.0230026717097133127
9John Coffey0.633510.5294110.83391.30480201.93200191121709988
10CPA Retro Rankings0.632960.4423111.55210.25000219.6540026716998115145
11Ashby AccuRatings0.632960.4831911.09741.21790201.5080026716998115123
12Austin Sports0.629630.6000011.14230.94190218.176001891197011174
13Dokter Entropy0.629210.4594611.06840.96460199.2800026716899119140
14Jim Armstrong0.629210.4728711.15731.28720202.6390026716899122136
15Stat Fox0.629210.4146311.48691.24000211.2880026716899102144
16PickingPros.com0.625570.5441911.49930.31510221.178002191378211798
17System Average0.625470.4923111.02590.61650199.31500267167100128132
18Stephen Kerns0.625470.5000011.4734-0.05170211.25300267167100129129
19Wunderdog Sports0.621720.4585211.01500.11610197.67400267166101105124
20Kambour Rating0.621720.5153811.52310.54670214.61600267166101134126
21JFM Power Ratings0.621720.4500011.45291.07080208.26700267166101117143
22David and Pasteur0.621720.5173710.99221.06030199.62000267166101134125
23Sagarin Predictive0.621720.5538510.98450.80510200.69500267166101144116
24Atomic Football0.621210.4549011.17630.54990202.11400264164100116139
25ARGH Power Ratings0.620000.4978011.1970-0.16300203.3550025015595113114
26Massey Ratings0.617980.4980711.07480.86170199.67400267165102129130
27CPA Rankings0.617980.5000011.46870.39930217.52900267165102130130
28Sagarin Elo0.617980.4692311.42220.61310208.76300267165102122138
29Upset Report0.617980.5387811.3933-0.13480209.73000267165102132113
30Pigskin Index0.617980.4938311.05611.21430199.55900267165102120123
31Sagarin0.617980.4961511.01750.72560200.68500267165102129131
32System Median0.617980.4922511.01460.69920199.09800267165102127131
33Covers.com0.614230.5156311.08770.96370206.09500267164103132124
34Nutshell Girl0.614230.4594611.20570.79980205.06500267164103119140
35Scoring Effeciency0.610490.5269211.16461.05190206.02100267163104137123
36Reistertown Index0.610490.5179311.31830.30720206.72400267163104130121
37Nutshell Combo0.610490.4341111.49810.78580209.00800267163104112146
38NFL Pickles0.610490.5136211.9532-0.70300228.06300267163104132125
39PerformanZ Ratings0.606740.5444011.22540.20290204.27500267162105141118
40Kasulis Enhanced Spread0.606740.4648411.40500.10340209.23300267162105119137
41Eric Hollobaugh0.604320.5882410.3521-0.11700176.5970013984558056
42Sportrends0.603000.5220911.40451.38260212.08300267161106130119
43Hank Trexler0.603000.4959711.1498-0.39330201.90600267161106123125
44NutShell Sports0.599250.4324312.06840.72040227.22000267160107112147
45Least Abs. Val Reg0.599250.4594611.9852-0.39530236.49600267160107119140
46Brent Craig0.593980.4803111.64691.18080220.4430013379546166
47Strengthranking.com0.593630.5122011.81270.70460220.38400251149102126120
48Roger Johnson0.593610.5071111.61700.40740226.2280021913089107104
49Schmidt Comp. Ratings0.591760.4807711.31371.10060208.59100267158109125135
50Nationalsportsrankings0.589840.4556511.46200.97270212.54200256151105113135
51Brian Gabrielle0.588540.4970811.32031.37260214.29300192113798586
52YourLinx0.588010.4346213.17810.38160270.06400267157110113147
53Least Squares0.588010.5057911.8537-0.28480232.07000267157110131128
54Pat Laffaye0.588010.5193811.79590.41540229.11800267157110134124
55Sonny Moore0.588010.4923111.14650.43590210.42500267157110128132
56Dwiggins0.586960.4864912.25000.58140240.7040023013595108114
57Dunkel Index0.584270.4500011.55740.19930217.69100267156111117143
58What If Sports0.580520.4136512.2584-0.61800234.40000267155112103146
59Steven Jens0.578950.4488211.53761.24970213.91400266154112114140
60Beck Elo0.573030.4807711.61940.44040219.43400267153114125135
61Lee Burdorf0.565540.4863812.29781.18620243.81500267151116125132
62Pythagorean Ratings0.565540.5269211.55440.32310224.84100267151116137123
63RP Excel0.554310.4782612.14981.28840245.18500267148119121132
64Logistic Regression0.535580.5019611.6609-0.32490221.94200267143124128127
65LS - w/ team HFA0.531840.4505912.4948-0.52880243.37200267142125114139
66Tom Benson0.437500.3571411.4088-10.73250199.91800167959
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses