ThePredictionTracker NFL RESULTS

Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2007 Season Totals

Through

Rank	System	Pct. Correct	Against Spread	Absolute Error	Bias	Mean Square Error	games	suw	sul	atsw	atsl
1	Sonny Moore	0.68914	0.51351	11.1158	-0.92680	193.51000	267	184	83	133	126
2	Line (updated)	0.68539		10.7135	-0.39140	178.85800	267	183	84
3	Computer Adjusted Line	0.68165	0.59524	10.6966	-0.39700	178.31200	267	182	85	50	34
4	Line (opening)	0.67416	0.49189	10.8727	-0.21720	182.16100	267	180	87	91	94
5	Lee Burdorf	0.67416	0.54264	11.6048	0.20040	211.53700	267	180	87	140	118
6	Pigskin Herald	0.67293	0.51779	11.3695	-0.60640	199.57900	266	179	87	131	122
7	CPA Retro Rankings	0.67041	0.50193	10.9536	-0.02750	191.85300	267	179	88	130	129
8	Beck Elo	0.67041	0.54826	11.0452	-0.67370	188.87300	267	179	88	142	117
9	Pythagorean Ratings	0.67041	0.51737	11.4344	-1.36430	206.84200	267	179	88	134	125
10	Hank Trexler	0.66667	0.50000	10.8652	-0.67790	185.22300	267	178	89	125	125
11	CPA Rankings	0.66667	0.52510	10.9995	-0.02460	187.94800	267	178	89	136	123
12	Sagarin	0.66667	0.56977	10.7854	-0.11250	183.97900	267	178	89	147	111
13	Dwiggins	0.68462	0.55422	11.2038	0.30930	197.22100	260	178	82	138	111
14	Steven Jens	0.66292	0.53755	11.0963	-1.06020	189.99300	267	177	90	136	117
15	Reistertown Index	0.66292	0.49167	11.3071	-0.88760	194.32300	267	177	90	118	122
16	Sagarin Elo	0.65918	0.54440	11.0281	-0.11830	191.41300	267	176	91	141	118
17	Jeff Imes	0.65918	0.56757	11.3751	0.96980	203.34800	267	176	91	147	112
18	Sport Trends	0.65918	0.50000	11.6221	-1.38010	213.00700	267	176	91	129	129
19	System Median	0.65543	0.56078	10.8281	-0.36570	182.47500	267	175	92	143	112
20	Least Squares	0.65543	0.52326	11.7110	-1.52690	209.23300	267	175	92	135	123
21	Kambour Rating	0.65169	0.54054	10.8506	-0.50390	183.40200	267	174	93	140	119
22	Sagarin Predictive	0.65169	0.58527	10.7894	-0.11970	183.68600	267	174	93	151	107
23	PerformanZ Ratings	0.65414	0.53488	11.2020	-1.39970	193.56900	266	174	92	138	120
24	System Average	0.65169	0.56371	10.7819	-0.43180	180.99400	267	174	93	146	113
25	Kasulis Enhanced Spread	0.64794	0.50391	11.0881	-0.89690	190.96300	267	173	94	129	127
26	Brian Gabrielle	0.65649	0.54237	10.8912	0.26950	184.83500	262	172	90	128	108
27	ARGH Power Ratings	0.68526	0.53571	11.0219	-0.76290	190.07300	251	172	79	120	104
28	NutShell Sports	0.64045	0.51351	11.1258	0.04860	192.45500	267	171	96	133	126
29	Stat Fox	0.64045	0.50206	11.2174	0.35630	192.74900	267	171	96	122	121
30	Pigskin Index	0.63670	0.54008	11.0077	0.28150	188.51600	267	170	97	128	109
31	JFM Power Ratings	0.63670	0.55598	11.0138	0.05710	186.99800	267	170	97	144	115
32	Stephen Kerns	0.63296	0.50965	11.9218	-0.60780	225.16400	267	169	98	132	127
33	Scoring Effeciency	0.63534	0.50000	11.3108	-0.23240	199.13900	266	169	97	129	129
34	Sports Report Elo	0.65625	0.54839	11.9478	-1.61560	227.02300	256	168	88	136	112
35	The Sports Report	0.65625	0.52419	12.3973	-1.57610	236.49400	256	168	88	130	118
36	Ashby AccuRatings	0.62547	0.49174	11.0040	0.37540	186.05100	267	167	100	119	123
37	Upset Report	0.65737	0.48954	11.4382	-2.43920	208.42300	251	165	86	117	122
38	Dokter Entropy	0.61798	0.47876	11.0782	0.20620	191.38700	267	165	102	124	135
39	LS - w/ team HFA	0.61423	0.53488	12.2272	-1.47210	243.73700	267	164	103	138	120
40	What If Sports	0.63672	0.48790	11.9708	0.31970	221.68800	256	163	93	121	127
41	Least Abs. Val Reg	0.61049	0.52157	12.2046	-1.65480	227.98500	267	163	104	133	122
42	NutShell Retro	0.64542	0.50204	11.1854	-0.76410	194.75000	251	162	89	123	122
43	Dunkel Index	0.60300	0.53876	11.3452	0.26120	194.29300	267	161	106	139	119
44	Tom Benson	0.59925	0.48450	11.6842	-0.35010	204.29300	267	160	107	125	133
45	Sports Report Pred	0.60938	0.48178	14.7464	-2.14390	369.30500	256	156	100	119	128
46	TSR Slots	0.58984	0.48988	14.7684	-2.00540	363.18000	256	151	105	121	126
47	Michael Robert Ratings	0.64255	0.50870	11.1192	0.16680	193.43000	235	151	84	117	113
48	Covers.com	0.56180	0.47104	11.9046	-0.85640	224.51700	267	150	117	122	137
49	Roger Johnson	0.68493	0.56019	10.9551	-0.97370	190.98700	219	150	69	121	95
50	Deslock Rankings	0.66518	0.51628	11.9157	-0.94660	215.85600	224	149	75	111	104
51	Grid Iron Gold	0.60081	0.47863	12.0141	-1.52170	227.78200	248	149	99	112	122
52	Logistic Regression	0.67123	0.53241	11.7291	-2.47790	228.20600	219	147	72	115	101
53	Eric Hollobaugh	0.70732	0.54455	11.0438	-0.10860	194.17700	205	145	60	110	92
54	Sourjax	0.65753	0.50943	11.1804	0.57140	196.64300	219	144	75	108	104
55	Mike Greenfield	0.69756	0.54455	10.9020	-1.44340	185.96100	205	143	62	110	92
56	John Coffey	0.67317	0.50495	10.8166	-0.32300	187.61100	205	138	67	102	100
57	Ed Bemiss	0.68000	0.55789	10.6620	-0.74490	182.35800	200	136	64	106	84
58	Jeff Self	0.63500	0.53299	11.3050	-0.46960	206.47000	200	127	73	105	92
59	Bihl Rankings	0.69032	0.56579	10.6999	0.44190	176.43200	155	107	48	86	66
60	TheSportsCruncher	0.68382	0.52672	11.1056	-0.41400	182.38400	136	93	43	69	62
61	Viacheslav	0.63889	0.48905	11.0149	0.57120	187.55100	144	92	52	67	70
62	Cover81	0.72000	0.58261	10.6640	-0.91840	171.26300	125	90	35	67	48
63	Game Time Decision	0.64167	0.54867	11.0752	-0.45800	182.18500	120	77	43	62	51

pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses