ThePredictionTracker NFL RESULTS

Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2010 Season Totals

Through

Rank	System	Pct. Correct	Against Spread	Absolute Error	Bias	Mean Square Error	games	suw	sul	atsw	atsl
1	Eric Hollobaugh	0.60432	0.58824	10.3521	-0.11700	176.59700	139	84	55	80	56
2	Cover81	0.66047	0.51232	10.5856	-0.31110	190.82400	215	142	73	104	99
3	Bihl Rankings	0.64634	0.56522	10.7775	2.44270	204.25200	164	106	58	91	70
4	Line (opening)	0.65789	0.52577	10.8008	0.74440	194.66900	266	175	91	102	92
5	Game Time Decision	0.64045	0.52400	10.8108	1.33000	194.34500	267	171	96	131	119
6	Line (updated)	0.64419		10.8202	0.70790	194.61000	267	172	95
7	Computer Adjusted Line	0.64045	0.50617	10.8240	0.69290	194.19100	267	171	96	41	40
8	John Coffey	0.63351	0.52941	10.8339	1.30480	201.93200	191	121	70	99	88
9	Michael Robert Ratings	0.63670	0.51154	10.8362	0.35150	198.02300	267	170	97	133	127
10	Sagarin Predictive	0.62172	0.55385	10.9845	0.80510	200.69500	267	166	101	144	116
11	David and Pasteur	0.62172	0.51737	10.9922	1.06030	199.62000	267	166	101	134	125
12	System Median	0.61798	0.49225	11.0146	0.69920	199.09800	267	165	102	127	131
13	Wunderdog Sports	0.62172	0.45852	11.0150	0.11610	197.67400	267	166	101	105	124
14	Sagarin	0.61798	0.49615	11.0175	0.72560	200.68500	267	165	102	129	131
15	System Average	0.62547	0.49231	11.0259	0.61650	199.31500	267	167	100	128	132
16	Pigskin Index	0.61798	0.49383	11.0561	1.21430	199.55900	267	165	102	120	123
17	Dokter Entropy	0.62921	0.45946	11.0684	0.96460	199.28000	267	168	99	119	140
18	Massey Ratings	0.61798	0.49807	11.0748	0.86170	199.67400	267	165	102	129	130
19	Covers.com	0.61423	0.51563	11.0877	0.96370	206.09500	267	164	103	132	124
20	Ashby AccuRatings	0.63296	0.48319	11.0974	1.21790	201.50800	267	169	98	115	123
21	Austin Sports	0.62963	0.60000	11.1423	0.94190	218.17600	189	119	70	111	74
22	Sonny Moore	0.58801	0.49231	11.1465	0.43590	210.42500	267	157	110	128	132
23	Hank Trexler	0.60300	0.49597	11.1498	-0.39330	201.90600	267	161	106	123	125
24	Jim Armstrong	0.62921	0.47287	11.1573	1.28720	202.63900	267	168	99	122	136
25	Scoring Effeciency	0.61049	0.52692	11.1646	1.05190	206.02100	267	163	104	137	123
26	Atomic Football	0.62121	0.45490	11.1763	0.54990	202.11400	264	164	100	116	139
27	ARGH Power Ratings	0.62000	0.49780	11.1970	-0.16300	203.35500	250	155	95	113	114
28	Nutshell Girl	0.61423	0.45946	11.2057	0.79980	205.06500	267	164	103	119	140
29	PerformanZ Ratings	0.60674	0.54440	11.2254	0.20290	204.27500	267	162	105	141	118
30	Schmidt Comp. Ratings	0.59176	0.48077	11.3137	1.10060	208.59100	267	158	109	125	135
31	Reistertown Index	0.61049	0.51793	11.3183	0.30720	206.72400	267	163	104	130	121
32	Brian Gabrielle	0.58854	0.49708	11.3203	1.37260	214.29300	192	113	79	85	86
33	Upset Report	0.61798	0.53878	11.3933	-0.13480	209.73000	267	165	102	132	113
34	Sportrends	0.60300	0.52209	11.4045	1.38260	212.08300	267	161	106	130	119
35	Kasulis Enhanced Spread	0.60674	0.46484	11.4050	0.10340	209.23300	267	162	105	119	137
36	Tom Benson	0.43750	0.35714	11.4088	-10.73250	199.91800	16	7	9	5	9
37	Sagarin Elo	0.61798	0.46923	11.4222	0.61310	208.76300	267	165	102	122	138
38	JFM Power Ratings	0.62172	0.45000	11.4529	1.07080	208.26700	267	166	101	117	143
39	Nationalsportsrankings	0.58984	0.45565	11.4620	0.97270	212.54200	256	151	105	113	135
40	CPA Rankings	0.61798	0.50000	11.4687	0.39930	217.52900	267	165	102	130	130
41	Stephen Kerns	0.62547	0.50000	11.4734	-0.05170	211.25300	267	167	100	129	129
42	Stat Fox	0.62921	0.41463	11.4869	1.24000	211.28800	267	168	99	102	144
43	Nutshell Combo	0.61049	0.43411	11.4981	0.78580	209.00800	267	163	104	112	146
44	PickingPros.com	0.62557	0.54419	11.4993	0.31510	221.17800	219	137	82	117	98
45	Kambour Rating	0.62172	0.51538	11.5231	0.54670	214.61600	267	166	101	134	126
46	Steven Jens	0.57895	0.44882	11.5376	1.24970	213.91400	266	154	112	114	140
47	Yarnell	0.64398	0.53763	11.5457	1.27520	214.35100	191	123	68	100	86
48	CPA Retro Rankings	0.63296	0.44231	11.5521	0.25000	219.65400	267	169	98	115	145
49	Pythagorean Ratings	0.56554	0.52692	11.5544	0.32310	224.84100	267	151	116	137	123
50	Dunkel Index	0.58427	0.45000	11.5574	0.19930	217.69100	267	156	111	117	143
51	Roger Johnson	0.59361	0.50711	11.6170	0.40740	226.22800	219	130	89	107	104
52	Beck Elo	0.57303	0.48077	11.6194	0.44040	219.43400	267	153	114	125	135
53	Brent Craig	0.59398	0.48031	11.6469	1.18080	220.44300	133	79	54	61	66
54	Logistic Regression	0.53558	0.50196	11.6609	-0.32490	221.94200	267	143	124	128	127
55	Pat Laffaye	0.58801	0.51938	11.7959	0.41540	229.11800	267	157	110	134	124
56	Strengthranking.com	0.59363	0.51220	11.8127	0.70460	220.38400	251	149	102	126	120
57	Least Squares	0.58801	0.50579	11.8537	-0.28480	232.07000	267	157	110	131	128
58	NFL Pickles	0.61049	0.51362	11.9532	-0.70300	228.06300	267	163	104	132	125
59	Least Abs. Val Reg	0.59925	0.45946	11.9852	-0.39530	236.49600	267	160	107	119	140
60	NutShell Sports	0.59925	0.43243	12.0684	0.72040	227.22000	267	160	107	112	147
61	RP Excel	0.55431	0.47826	12.1498	1.28840	245.18500	267	148	119	121	132
62	Dwiggins	0.58696	0.48649	12.2500	0.58140	240.70400	230	135	95	108	114
63	What If Sports	0.58052	0.41365	12.2584	-0.61800	234.40000	267	155	112	103	146
64	Lee Burdorf	0.56554	0.48638	12.2978	1.18620	243.81500	267	151	116	125	132
65	LS - w/ team HFA	0.53184	0.45059	12.4948	-0.52880	243.37200	267	142	125	114	139
66	YourLinx	0.58801	0.43462	13.1781	0.38160	270.06400	267	157	110	113	147

pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses