Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2021 Season Totals

Through 2022-01-17
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Kasulis ESP20.657040.4981710.9788-0.83780193.2580027818295136137
2Donchess Inference0.638990.4850710.99570.18920192.43200278177100130138
3Sonny Moore0.638990.4945811.3154-0.08950204.37900278177100137140
4RP Excel0.636020.5298811.3740-2.46560210.8620026216695133118
5Line (Midweek)0.6317710.9065-0.41370191.40800278175102
6Kasulis Enhanced Spread0.631770.4761911.3209-1.25610203.40600278175102130143
7RP Excel 20.630770.5254912.7816-1.84670258.7150026116496134121
8Dunkel Index0.628350.4904211.27660.78190202.7730026216497128133
9Daniel Curry Index0.628160.4945811.53090.81070208.04800278174103137140
10Line (updated)0.624550.5974010.8147-0.26080188.242002781731049262
11Computer Adjusted Line0.620940.5625010.8345-0.24460188.811002781721059977
12PerformanZ Ratings0.620940.4945811.5413-1.66340214.70200278172105137140
13Talisman Red0.617330.5217411.5940-2.24870211.83000278171106144132
14Sagarin Recent0.617330.4239111.9350-0.09420217.74800278171106117159
15System Average0.617330.4584811.23300.05010198.77700278171106127150
16Pythagorean Ratings0.617330.4873611.51400.84600205.51700278171106135142
17Dokter Entropy0.617330.4945511.07780.41210196.92400278171106136139
18ARGH Power Ratings0.616860.4677411.4361-0.49520207.09700262161100116132
19Dan Hanson0.616330.4734712.0805-1.08560228.1610024615194116129
20System Median0.613720.4681611.22020.01740198.21000278170107125142
21Stat Fox0.613720.4981411.65831.11920212.96100278170107134135
22ESPN FPI0.612550.4797011.06700.26140195.92300272166105130141
23Roundtable0.606990.5137612.15651.22620235.2710023013990112106
24TeamRankings.com0.606500.5074111.14530.20220197.34500278168109137133
25Versus Sports Simulator0.606500.5072512.04530.68550225.81800278168109140136
26Points Per Game0.606500.4963811.7959-0.24300220.30300278168109137139
27Pigskin Index0.606500.4734811.31651.25940202.12900278168109125139
28Massey Ratings0.606500.4801411.3055-1.60090204.49800278168109133144
29FF-Winners0.606500.5281410.9928-0.13670194.30900278168109122109
30Roger Johnson0.604060.4798011.9328-1.92750226.805001981197895103
31Pi-Rate Ratings0.602890.5434811.22850.98600202.37400278167110150126
32Pi-Rate Mean0.602890.5090911.28351.01010203.05300278167110140135
33Pi-Rate Bias0.602890.5090311.35400.99430205.88100278167110141136
34Ashby AccuRatings0.599280.4679211.34180.14820199.37500278166111124141
35Scoring Effeciency0.599280.4620911.52190.85680206.38500278166111128149
36Odds Shark0.599280.4800013.23825.15840278.02300278166111132143
37Line (opening)0.599280.5486710.8939-0.16010191.92000278166111124102
38Sagarin Points0.595670.4945811.3197-0.24620200.96500278165112137140
39Dwiggins0.595670.4565212.33362.50520228.82000278165112126150
40Bihl Rankings0.592810.4910211.9845-1.68490231.7060016899688285
41Sagarin Golden Mean0.592060.4637711.5217-0.17160206.92000278164113128148
42Game Time Decision0.591840.4713711.30911.74860204.04600246145100107120
43John Coffey0.588830.4494911.8889-0.36840223.885001981168189109
44Sagarin Rating0.588450.4945811.5305-0.17810205.33200278163114137140
45Laffaye RWP0.586960.4746412.18601.72030230.67800277162114131145
46Least Squares0.584840.4854011.8846-1.59180220.66500278162115133141
47Beck Elo0.584840.4657011.98901.90650224.32000278162115129148
48Turnover Adj. regressio0.584840.4601412.0734-1.14750225.80700278162115127149
49Lou St. John0.581230.5198611.5198-1.43590212.42800278161116144133
50Logistic Regression0.581230.4575612.4157-1.68270241.73600278161116124147
51LS - w/ team HFA0.581230.4765312.8457-1.88030263.19300278161116132145
52Cleanup Hitter0.570400.4943811.62420.68560215.41800278158119132135
53Stephen Kerns0.570400.4782612.15710.51240225.70500278158119132144
54TuringFantasy0.560440.5000011.7117-1.27370222.37700274153120132132
55Least Abs. Val Reg0.559570.4908412.3045-2.01660233.47200278155122134139
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses