Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2010 Second Half Totals

Through
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Line (opening)0.698530.5531910.99261.05150195.0650013695415242
2Cover810.686960.5045011.04780.43570193.0530011579365655
3Game Time Decision0.678830.4961811.03271.83620192.9410013793446566
4Line (updated)0.6788311.12411.14600198.979001379344
5Michael Robert Ratings0.671530.4926511.14610.75330205.3470013792456769
6Computer Adjusted Line0.671530.5555611.10221.13140197.8850013792452016
7ARGH Power Ratings0.666670.5229411.31460.20210200.5650012080405752
8System Average0.664230.5220611.02441.04090194.4160013791467165
9Dokter Entropy0.664230.5037011.07271.71170197.2380013791466867
10Sagarin Elo0.656930.5147111.15091.10260192.7710013790477066
11NFL Pickles0.656930.5746311.2759-0.49930200.7680013790477757
12Nutshell Girl0.656930.4852911.28421.51510199.6170013790476670
13Yarnell0.656930.5481511.68382.19740212.0590013790477461
14Upset Report0.649640.5581411.71530.63500217.9610013789487257
15PickingPros.com0.649640.5588211.34730.69910209.9970013789487660
16Schmidt Comp. Ratings0.649640.5367611.18251.62500199.3950013789487363
17System Median0.649640.5367611.04911.12760195.0170013789487363
18Sagarin0.649640.5514710.79451.11790188.7820013789487561
19JFM Power Ratings0.649640.4264711.29241.52580199.5720013789485878
20Austin Sports0.644630.6166710.98920.95350199.9510012178437446
21Wunderdog Sports0.642340.5126110.99270.40880193.4150013788496158
22Least Abs. Val Reg0.642340.4191212.1285-0.19340228.8880013788495779
23CPA Retro Rankings0.642340.4411811.6105-0.04230210.5720013788496076
24Kasulis Enhanced Spread0.642340.4926511.4537-0.16180205.4020013788496769
25Hank Trexler0.642340.5038811.19710.35040200.3930013788496564
26Ashby AccuRatings0.642340.5426411.19011.51180202.1680013788497059
27Covers.com0.642340.5447811.08501.69400198.2400013788497361
28Stat Fox0.642340.4341110.98551.74470193.4900013788495673
29John Coffey0.642340.5514710.95991.41810193.3690013788497561
30Sagarin Predictive0.642340.5955910.81571.05120192.6920013788498155
31Massey Ratings0.642340.5629610.78240.94010189.6480013788497659
32Bihl Rankings0.642280.5691110.88802.23170191.6720012379447053
33Dwiggins0.640350.5089311.89481.27730230.0190011473415755
34David and Pasteur0.635040.4926511.40961.67200208.8440013787506769
35Reistertown Index0.635040.4885511.81750.53280215.2610013787506467
36Stephen Kerns0.627740.5522411.33430.49930202.2360013786517460
37Pat Laffaye0.627740.5447811.36280.56720210.8370013786517361
38Scoring Effeciency0.627740.5000011.44621.48400211.9890013786516868
39Jim Armstrong0.627740.5000011.50871.79950207.6070013786516767
40Nutshell Combo0.627740.4264711.55371.40820204.9970013786515878
41YourLinx0.627740.4485311.82911.39090213.9980013786516175
42Atomic Football0.626870.5112811.36810.91760205.1440013484506865
43Eric Hollobaugh0.626170.6261710.43681.23500183.2580010767406740
44CPA Rankings0.620440.5367611.4471-0.07980211.2040013785527363
45Least Squares0.620440.5441211.6472-0.10280216.5020013785527462
46Pigskin Index0.620440.4651211.34311.67980202.8880013785526069
47Kambour Rating0.620440.5955911.21571.04010203.5180013785528155
48Strengthranking.com0.613140.5882411.11540.51850198.5540013784538056
49Sonny Moore0.613140.4632411.38680.91180205.5130013784536373
50Brian Gabrielle0.612900.4915312.10483.37900226.360006238242930
51What If Sports0.605840.4545512.2175-0.80440225.2950013783546072
52Sportrends0.605840.5581411.36501.71600209.5090013783547257
53Roger Johnson0.605840.5303011.2912-0.19050204.6220013783547062
54Steven Jens0.602940.5000011.45741.90440204.1610013682546666
55Pythagorean Ratings0.598540.5294111.21241.46410205.3630013782557264
56PerformanZ Ratings0.598540.5185211.55230.47720208.6730013782557065
57Dunkel Index0.598540.4485311.63420.53880212.0110013782556175
58Nationalsportsrankings0.595240.4480011.63271.38600214.2610012675515669
59Beck Elo0.591240.5073511.39340.88800205.7280013781566967
60Lee Burdorf0.591240.4887212.04601.43870236.2920013781566568
61NutShell Sports0.583940.4222212.14261.44050227.1720013780575778
62Brent Craig0.572730.4761911.52761.70950213.3490011063475055
63LS - w/ team HFA0.569340.4360912.6504-0.09380242.8650013778595875
64RP Excel0.569340.4592612.82481.00000264.2340013778596273
65Logistic Regression0.554740.4962411.64740.32510204.8130013776616667
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses