Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)
2015 Season Totals
Through 2016-02-08
Rank |
System |
Pct. Correct |
Against Spread |
Absolute Error |
Bias |
Mean Square Error |
games |
suw |
sul |
atsw |
atsl |
1 | YourLinx | 0.65918 | 0.53307 | 10.4831 | 1.01580 | 178.07800 | 267 | 176 | 91 | 137 | 120 |
2 | Sagarin Golden Mean | 0.65918 | 0.55985 | 10.2328 | 0.56820 | 168.09700 | 267 | 176 | 91 | 145 | 114 |
3 | John Coffey | 0.65686 | 0.54822 | 10.3995 | 1.10330 | 174.92200 | 204 | 134 | 70 | 108 | 89 |
4 | Dokter Entropy | 0.65543 | 0.58140 | 10.1819 | 0.62210 | 167.21000 | 267 | 175 | 92 | 150 | 108 |
5 | Daniel Curry Index | 0.65543 | 0.52510 | 10.9090 | 1.10830 | 189.83400 | 267 | 175 | 92 | 136 | 123 |
6 | MDS Model | 0.65200 | 0.54545 | 10.2966 | 1.21010 | 173.49200 | 250 | 163 | 87 | 132 | 110 |
7 | Ashby AccuRatings | 0.65169 | 0.54321 | 10.2847 | 0.30520 | 171.48400 | 267 | 174 | 93 | 132 | 111 |
8 | Sagarin Recent | 0.65169 | 0.55212 | 10.2855 | 0.60190 | 168.61800 | 267 | 174 | 93 | 143 | 116 |
9 | ThePowerRank.com | 0.65169 | 0.53668 | 10.3869 | 0.92490 | 177.07500 | 267 | 174 | 93 | 139 | 120 |
10 | Logistic Regression | 0.64794 | 0.59608 | 10.1595 | -0.55750 | 171.36700 | 267 | 173 | 94 | 152 | 103 |
11 | Donchess Inference | 0.64794 | 0.52510 | 10.4380 | 1.32030 | 173.17000 | 267 | 173 | 94 | 136 | 123 |
12 | ARGH Power Ratings | 0.64794 | 0.55462 | 10.4794 | 0.82890 | 172.53400 | 267 | 173 | 94 | 132 | 106 |
13 | Nutshell Middle Game | 0.64794 | 0.54065 | 10.5468 | 1.17510 | 179.27000 | 267 | 173 | 94 | 133 | 113 |
14 | Pi-Rate Ratings | 0.64794 | 0.52157 | 10.5697 | 1.04850 | 178.33400 | 267 | 173 | 94 | 133 | 122 |
15 | Kambour Rating | 0.64419 | 0.50193 | 10.5975 | 0.82140 | 180.68100 | 267 | 172 | 95 | 130 | 129 |
16 | Steven Jens | 0.64419 | 0.50579 | 10.9330 | 2.09330 | 185.34500 | 267 | 172 | 95 | 131 | 128 |
17 | Pi-Rate Bias | 0.64419 | 0.55686 | 10.6997 | 1.08580 | 180.97200 | 267 | 172 | 95 | 142 | 113 |
18 | Stephen Kerns | 0.64130 | 0.48864 | 11.0053 | 0.20120 | 179.88400 | 92 | 59 | 33 | 43 | 45 |
19 | Kasulis ESP2 | 0.64045 | 0.53785 | 10.2236 | 0.29700 | 170.22700 | 267 | 171 | 96 | 135 | 116 |
20 | IronRank.com | 0.64045 | 0.55985 | 10.2746 | 1.00920 | 171.60000 | 267 | 171 | 96 | 145 | 114 |
21 | System Average | 0.64045 | 0.51373 | 10.3303 | 0.63840 | 169.54600 | 267 | 171 | 96 | 131 | 124 |
22 | Lou St. John | 0.64045 | 0.47876 | 10.4282 | 0.01000 | 172.71000 | 267 | 171 | 96 | 124 | 135 |
23 | Kalin Ratings | 0.63670 | 0.56371 | 10.2930 | 0.72170 | 170.96900 | 267 | 170 | 97 | 146 | 113 |
24 | Massey Ratings | 0.63670 | 0.49398 | 10.4636 | -0.02530 | 171.19600 | 267 | 170 | 97 | 123 | 126 |
25 | System Median | 0.63670 | 0.53937 | 10.3035 | 0.65160 | 169.55400 | 267 | 170 | 97 | 137 | 117 |
26 | Sagarin Rating | 0.63670 | 0.54826 | 10.2763 | 0.57910 | 169.40300 | 267 | 170 | 97 | 142 | 117 |
27 | Sagarin Points | 0.63670 | 0.55212 | 10.3006 | 0.54820 | 170.03000 | 267 | 170 | 97 | 143 | 116 |
28 | PointShare | 0.63470 | 0.51923 | 10.4996 | 0.19880 | 175.92400 | 219 | 139 | 80 | 108 | 100 |
29 | Game Time Decision | 0.63374 | 0.48837 | 10.1976 | 1.35750 | 169.73700 | 243 | 154 | 89 | 105 | 110 |
30 | ESPN FPI | 0.63296 | 0.54054 | 10.3527 | 1.06610 | 173.13300 | 267 | 169 | 98 | 140 | 119 |
31 | Talisman Red | 0.63296 | 0.52124 | 10.4612 | 0.10530 | 175.06700 | 267 | 169 | 98 | 135 | 124 |
32 | Turner Rateform | 0.63235 | 0.53807 | 10.5258 | 1.46340 | 179.69400 | 204 | 129 | 75 | 106 | 91 |
33 | Stat Fox | 0.62921 | 0.52049 | 10.8764 | 1.29350 | 180.95300 | 267 | 168 | 99 | 127 | 117 |
34 | Dunkel Index | 0.62921 | 0.48649 | 10.9094 | 0.39650 | 190.13000 | 267 | 168 | 99 | 126 | 133 |
35 | Lee Burdorf | 0.62921 | 0.47287 | 11.4221 | 1.36060 | 201.30300 | 267 | 168 | 99 | 122 | 136 |
36 | Pi-Rate Mean | 0.62921 | 0.53696 | 10.5263 | 1.09410 | 174.90600 | 267 | 168 | 99 | 138 | 119 |
37 | Computer Adjusted Line | 0.62921 | 0.58721 | 10.1629 | 0.60710 | 167.51600 | 267 | 168 | 99 | 101 | 71 |
38 | Line (updated) | 0.62921 | 0.57595 | 10.1404 | 0.56200 | 167.51300 | 267 | 168 | 99 | 91 | 67 |
39 | Laffaye RWP | 0.62550 | 0.54321 | 10.5067 | -0.50560 | 178.31400 | 251 | 157 | 94 | 132 | 111 |
40 | Pigskin Index | 0.62547 | 0.53419 | 10.5019 | 1.39910 | 176.88600 | 267 | 167 | 100 | 125 | 109 |
41 | ComPughter Ratings | 0.62406 | 0.49225 | 10.9622 | 0.32620 | 186.79400 | 266 | 166 | 100 | 127 | 131 |
42 | Roundtable | 0.62232 | 0.49074 | 11.2874 | 1.10760 | 198.66200 | 233 | 145 | 88 | 106 | 110 |
43 | Covers.com | 0.62172 | 0.51055 | 10.3139 | 1.17600 | 171.50200 | 267 | 166 | 101 | 121 | 116 |
44 | Dwiggins | 0.62172 | 0.49027 | 11.4021 | 1.31330 | 197.03300 | 267 | 166 | 101 | 126 | 131 |
45 | Pythagorean Ratings | 0.62172 | 0.51351 | 10.5893 | 1.14230 | 184.41400 | 267 | 166 | 101 | 133 | 126 |
46 | NutShell Sports | 0.62172 | 0.53696 | 10.5809 | 0.94750 | 176.56900 | 267 | 166 | 101 | 138 | 119 |
47 | Scoring Effeciency | 0.61798 | 0.50000 | 10.5104 | 1.13480 | 181.56700 | 267 | 165 | 102 | 129 | 129 |
48 | PerformanZ Ratings | 0.61798 | 0.48062 | 10.6919 | 0.38050 | 180.80100 | 267 | 165 | 102 | 124 | 134 |
49 | Line (opening) | 0.61423 | 0.53608 | 10.1779 | 0.68980 | 169.11400 | 267 | 164 | 103 | 104 | 90 |
50 | Beck Elo | 0.61423 | 0.50193 | 10.8895 | 0.65620 | 182.98000 | 267 | 164 | 103 | 130 | 129 |
51 | Roger Johnson | 0.61187 | 0.53555 | 10.5795 | -0.24550 | 178.11100 | 219 | 134 | 85 | 113 | 98 |
52 | Kasulis Enhanced Spread | 0.61049 | 0.53876 | 10.4207 | 0.15300 | 173.86200 | 267 | 163 | 104 | 139 | 119 |
53 | Least Squares | 0.60674 | 0.50193 | 10.8660 | -0.65420 | 185.61000 | 267 | 162 | 105 | 130 | 129 |
54 | FF-Winners | 0.60674 | 0.48319 | 10.9026 | 1.35340 | 186.15100 | 267 | 162 | 105 | 115 | 123 |
55 | RP Excel | 0.60674 | 0.58130 | 11.0037 | 0.65410 | 197.40400 | 267 | 162 | 105 | 143 | 103 |
56 | Foreshadow Sports | 0.60090 | 0.45755 | 11.0045 | 0.39460 | 188.63600 | 223 | 134 | 89 | 97 | 115 |
57 | CPA Retro Rankings | 0.59925 | 0.52124 | 10.9768 | -0.05190 | 186.15700 | 267 | 160 | 107 | 135 | 124 |
58 | Sonny Moore | 0.59925 | 0.53282 | 10.7094 | 0.66370 | 178.22200 | 267 | 160 | 107 | 138 | 121 |
59 | What If Sports | 0.59925 | 0.52918 | 10.5524 | -1.80750 | 181.05100 | 267 | 160 | 107 | 136 | 121 |
60 | DirectorOfInformation.c | 0.59925 | 0.52124 | 10.4638 | 0.75060 | 179.32300 | 267 | 160 | 107 | 135 | 124 |
61 | Line (Midweek) | 0.59925 | | 10.3127 | 0.56950 | 172.02600 | 267 | 160 | 107 | | |
62 | Sportrends | 0.59615 | 0.46581 | 10.8865 | 1.60220 | 183.46100 | 260 | 155 | 105 | 109 | 125 |
63 | ProComputerGambler | 0.59341 | 0.55056 | 11.3667 | 0.91560 | 220.77000 | 91 | 54 | 37 | 49 | 40 |
64 | Turnover Adj. regressio | 0.58801 | 0.49807 | 10.7817 | 0.04500 | 186.85800 | 267 | 157 | 110 | 129 | 130 |
65 | LS - w/ team HFA | 0.58427 | 0.51550 | 11.3965 | -0.70060 | 207.59900 | 267 | 156 | 111 | 133 | 125 |
66 | CPA Rankings | 0.58052 | 0.51351 | 11.1260 | -0.23110 | 188.49400 | 267 | 155 | 112 | 133 | 126 |
67 | Odds Shark | 0.57447 | 0.47727 | 10.9538 | 1.76060 | 180.34400 | 47 | 27 | 20 | 21 | 23 |
68 | Least Abs. Val Reg | 0.57303 | 0.54331 | 11.0527 | -0.16600 | 194.71200 | 267 | 153 | 114 | 138 | 116 |
69 | Dan Hanson | 0.57021 | 0.53540 | 10.7776 | 0.28580 | 197.29100 | 235 | 134 | 101 | 121 | 105 |
70 | Points Per Game | 0.56929 | 0.52896 | 10.7404 | 0.10300 | 190.18400 | 267 | 152 | 115 | 137 | 122 |
71 | Cleanup Hitter | 0.56554 | 0.53878 | 10.7172 | 0.96270 | 193.34100 | 267 | 151 | 116 | 132 | 113 |
72 | Bihl Rankings | 0.54688 | 0.45313 | 11.6605 | 3.75270 | 204.08300 | 64 | 35 | 29 | 29 | 35 |
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread = percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses