ThePredictionTracker NFL RESULTS

Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2015 Season Totals

Through 2016-02-08

Rank	System	Pct. Correct	Against Spread	Absolute Error	Bias	Mean Square Error	games	suw	sul	atsw	atsl
1	YourLinx	0.65918	0.53307	10.4831	1.01580	178.07800	267	176	91	137	120
2	Sagarin Golden Mean	0.65918	0.55985	10.2328	0.56820	168.09700	267	176	91	145	114
3	John Coffey	0.65686	0.54822	10.3995	1.10330	174.92200	204	134	70	108	89
4	Dokter Entropy	0.65543	0.58140	10.1819	0.62210	167.21000	267	175	92	150	108
5	Daniel Curry Index	0.65543	0.52510	10.9090	1.10830	189.83400	267	175	92	136	123
6	MDS Model	0.65200	0.54545	10.2966	1.21010	173.49200	250	163	87	132	110
7	Ashby AccuRatings	0.65169	0.54321	10.2847	0.30520	171.48400	267	174	93	132	111
8	Sagarin Recent	0.65169	0.55212	10.2855	0.60190	168.61800	267	174	93	143	116
9	ThePowerRank.com	0.65169	0.53668	10.3869	0.92490	177.07500	267	174	93	139	120
10	Logistic Regression	0.64794	0.59608	10.1595	-0.55750	171.36700	267	173	94	152	103
11	Donchess Inference	0.64794	0.52510	10.4380	1.32030	173.17000	267	173	94	136	123
12	ARGH Power Ratings	0.64794	0.55462	10.4794	0.82890	172.53400	267	173	94	132	106
13	Nutshell Middle Game	0.64794	0.54065	10.5468	1.17510	179.27000	267	173	94	133	113
14	Pi-Rate Ratings	0.64794	0.52157	10.5697	1.04850	178.33400	267	173	94	133	122
15	Kambour Rating	0.64419	0.50193	10.5975	0.82140	180.68100	267	172	95	130	129
16	Steven Jens	0.64419	0.50579	10.9330	2.09330	185.34500	267	172	95	131	128
17	Pi-Rate Bias	0.64419	0.55686	10.6997	1.08580	180.97200	267	172	95	142	113
18	Stephen Kerns	0.64130	0.48864	11.0053	0.20120	179.88400	92	59	33	43	45
19	Kasulis ESP2	0.64045	0.53785	10.2236	0.29700	170.22700	267	171	96	135	116
20	IronRank.com	0.64045	0.55985	10.2746	1.00920	171.60000	267	171	96	145	114
21	System Average	0.64045	0.51373	10.3303	0.63840	169.54600	267	171	96	131	124
22	Lou St. John	0.64045	0.47876	10.4282	0.01000	172.71000	267	171	96	124	135
23	Kalin Ratings	0.63670	0.56371	10.2930	0.72170	170.96900	267	170	97	146	113
24	Massey Ratings	0.63670	0.49398	10.4636	-0.02530	171.19600	267	170	97	123	126
25	System Median	0.63670	0.53937	10.3035	0.65160	169.55400	267	170	97	137	117
26	Sagarin Rating	0.63670	0.54826	10.2763	0.57910	169.40300	267	170	97	142	117
27	Sagarin Points	0.63670	0.55212	10.3006	0.54820	170.03000	267	170	97	143	116
28	PointShare	0.63470	0.51923	10.4996	0.19880	175.92400	219	139	80	108	100
29	Game Time Decision	0.63374	0.48837	10.1976	1.35750	169.73700	243	154	89	105	110
30	ESPN FPI	0.63296	0.54054	10.3527	1.06610	173.13300	267	169	98	140	119
31	Talisman Red	0.63296	0.52124	10.4612	0.10530	175.06700	267	169	98	135	124
32	Turner Rateform	0.63235	0.53807	10.5258	1.46340	179.69400	204	129	75	106	91
33	Stat Fox	0.62921	0.52049	10.8764	1.29350	180.95300	267	168	99	127	117
34	Dunkel Index	0.62921	0.48649	10.9094	0.39650	190.13000	267	168	99	126	133
35	Lee Burdorf	0.62921	0.47287	11.4221	1.36060	201.30300	267	168	99	122	136
36	Pi-Rate Mean	0.62921	0.53696	10.5263	1.09410	174.90600	267	168	99	138	119
37	Computer Adjusted Line	0.62921	0.58721	10.1629	0.60710	167.51600	267	168	99	101	71
38	Line (updated)	0.62921	0.57595	10.1404	0.56200	167.51300	267	168	99	91	67
39	Laffaye RWP	0.62550	0.54321	10.5067	-0.50560	178.31400	251	157	94	132	111
40	Pigskin Index	0.62547	0.53419	10.5019	1.39910	176.88600	267	167	100	125	109
41	ComPughter Ratings	0.62406	0.49225	10.9622	0.32620	186.79400	266	166	100	127	131
42	Roundtable	0.62232	0.49074	11.2874	1.10760	198.66200	233	145	88	106	110
43	Covers.com	0.62172	0.51055	10.3139	1.17600	171.50200	267	166	101	121	116
44	Dwiggins	0.62172	0.49027	11.4021	1.31330	197.03300	267	166	101	126	131
45	Pythagorean Ratings	0.62172	0.51351	10.5893	1.14230	184.41400	267	166	101	133	126
46	NutShell Sports	0.62172	0.53696	10.5809	0.94750	176.56900	267	166	101	138	119
47	Scoring Effeciency	0.61798	0.50000	10.5104	1.13480	181.56700	267	165	102	129	129
48	PerformanZ Ratings	0.61798	0.48062	10.6919	0.38050	180.80100	267	165	102	124	134
49	Line (opening)	0.61423	0.53608	10.1779	0.68980	169.11400	267	164	103	104	90
50	Beck Elo	0.61423	0.50193	10.8895	0.65620	182.98000	267	164	103	130	129
51	Roger Johnson	0.61187	0.53555	10.5795	-0.24550	178.11100	219	134	85	113	98
52	Kasulis Enhanced Spread	0.61049	0.53876	10.4207	0.15300	173.86200	267	163	104	139	119
53	Least Squares	0.60674	0.50193	10.8660	-0.65420	185.61000	267	162	105	130	129
54	FF-Winners	0.60674	0.48319	10.9026	1.35340	186.15100	267	162	105	115	123
55	RP Excel	0.60674	0.58130	11.0037	0.65410	197.40400	267	162	105	143	103
56	Foreshadow Sports	0.60090	0.45755	11.0045	0.39460	188.63600	223	134	89	97	115
57	CPA Retro Rankings	0.59925	0.52124	10.9768	-0.05190	186.15700	267	160	107	135	124
58	Sonny Moore	0.59925	0.53282	10.7094	0.66370	178.22200	267	160	107	138	121
59	What If Sports	0.59925	0.52918	10.5524	-1.80750	181.05100	267	160	107	136	121
60	DirectorOfInformation.c	0.59925	0.52124	10.4638	0.75060	179.32300	267	160	107	135	124
61	Line (Midweek)	0.59925		10.3127	0.56950	172.02600	267	160	107
62	Sportrends	0.59615	0.46581	10.8865	1.60220	183.46100	260	155	105	109	125
63	ProComputerGambler	0.59341	0.55056	11.3667	0.91560	220.77000	91	54	37	49	40
64	Turnover Adj. regressio	0.58801	0.49807	10.7817	0.04500	186.85800	267	157	110	129	130
65	LS - w/ team HFA	0.58427	0.51550	11.3965	-0.70060	207.59900	267	156	111	133	125
66	CPA Rankings	0.58052	0.51351	11.1260	-0.23110	188.49400	267	155	112	133	126
67	Odds Shark	0.57447	0.47727	10.9538	1.76060	180.34400	47	27	20	21	23
68	Least Abs. Val Reg	0.57303	0.54331	11.0527	-0.16600	194.71200	267	153	114	138	116
69	Dan Hanson	0.57021	0.53540	10.7776	0.28580	197.29100	235	134	101	121	105
70	Points Per Game	0.56929	0.52896	10.7404	0.10300	190.18400	267	152	115	137	122
71	Cleanup Hitter	0.56554	0.53878	10.7172	0.96270	193.34100	267	151	116	132	113
72	Bihl Rankings	0.54688	0.45313	11.6605	3.75270	204.08300	64	35	29	29	35

pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses