Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)
Through 2018-02-05
| Rank |
System |
Pct. Correct |
Against Spread |
Absolute Error |
Bias |
Mean Square Error |
games |
suw |
sul |
atsw |
atsl |
| 1 | ARGH Power Ratings | | 0.47809 | 11.9470 | 0.56060 | 228.21100 | 264 | | | 120 | 131 |
| 2 | Ashby AccuRatings | | 0.51681 | 11.5188 | 0.96990 | 217.37200 | 266 | | | 123 | 115 |
| 3 | Bihl Rankings | | 0.44586 | 12.6203 | 1.34030 | 253.15100 | 160 | | | 70 | 87 |
| 4 | Cleanup Hitter | | 0.48221 | 12.5282 | 0.17860 | 254.78800 | 266 | | | 122 | 131 |
| 5 | ComPughter Ratings | | 0.47510 | 12.9850 | 0.48630 | 266.86900 | 266 | | | 124 | 137 |
| 6 | Dan Hanson | | 0.51304 | 11.6739 | -0.70360 | 222.68600 | 235 | | | 118 | 112 |
| 7 | Daniel Curry Index | | 0.45528 | 12.5024 | 0.50980 | 259.20000 | 250 | | | 112 | 134 |
| 8 | Donchess Inference | | 0.53053 | 11.6444 | 0.52130 | 226.08800 | 266 | | | 139 | 123 |
| 9 | FF-Winners | | 0.53333 | 11.5188 | 1.35340 | 218.97100 | 266 | | | 128 | 112 |
| 10 | John Coffey | | 0.46739 | 11.5137 | 0.66850 | 218.73500 | 189 | | | 86 | 98 |
| 11 | Line (Midweek) | | | 11.2744 | 0.69170 | 207.49800 | 266 | | | | |
| 12 | Line (opening) | | 0.41327 | 11.4192 | 0.94170 | 209.50900 | 266 | | | 81 | 115 |
| 13 | Line (updated) | | 0.52941 | 11.3008 | 0.66170 | 209.06200 | 266 | | | 72 | 64 |
| 14 | Massey Ratings | | 0.43893 | 12.2585 | 1.70640 | 240.67500 | 266 | | | 115 | 147 |
| 15 | Pi-Rate Ratings | | 0.49798 | 11.6429 | 1.08650 | 220.82600 | 266 | | | 123 | 124 |
| 16 | Roundtable | | 0.50000 | 11.8095 | 0.76190 | 224.39600 | 231 | | | 106 | 106 |
| 17 | RP Excel | | 0.52590 | 13.2252 | 0.38550 | 284.08700 | 262 | | | 132 | 119 |
| 18 | RP Excel 2 | | 0.52778 | 12.5000 | 0.85880 | 259.51200 | 262 | | | 133 | 119 |
| 19 | Stephen Kerns | | 0.51908 | 12.7820 | -2.55640 | 263.63100 | 266 | | | 136 | 126 |
| 20 | System Average | | 0.49237 | 11.4796 | 0.53460 | 216.91700 | 266 | | | 129 | 133 |
| 21 | System Median | | 0.45635 | 11.5803 | 0.80920 | 217.23700 | 266 | | | 115 | 137 |
| 22 | Talisman Red | | 0.54023 | 12.8015 | -1.48270 | 276.86600 | 266 | | | 141 | 120 |
| 23 | TheSportsCruncher | | 0.47431 | 12.0406 | 0.42910 | 238.00600 | 261 | | | 120 | 133 |
| 24 | What If Sports | | 0.49237 | 12.0109 | 2.77410 | 226.08600 | 266 | | | 129 | 133 |
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread = percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses