Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2017 Second Half Totals

Through 2018-02-05
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1ARGH Power Ratings0.706770.553729.9229-1.00190163.3750013394396754
2Ashby AccuRatings0.696300.4603210.0815-0.96980170.4570013594415868
3Beck Elo0.688890.5384610.0895-1.04770167.1070013593427060
4Bihl Rankings0.711110.5307710.09160.26690170.8450013596396961
5Cleanup Hitter0.651850.4960010.7258-0.71070192.3650013588476263
6ComPughter Ratings0.718520.5615410.0567-1.04250173.2660013597387357
7Computer Adjusted Line0.718520.571439.4741-1.05930151.6290013597385642
8Covers.com0.688890.5203310.0888-0.12590176.4110013593426459
9Dan Hanson0.659260.4538510.9035-1.09470185.6350013589465971
10Daniel Curry Index0.711110.5307710.6432-0.40070181.4560013596396961
11Dokter Entropy0.688890.507699.9496-1.03610164.0400013593426664
12Donchess Inference0.711110.584629.6147-0.25580158.6570013596397654
13Dunkel Index0.688890.5348811.4865-0.09330217.5340013593426960
14Dwiggins0.696300.519389.9381-0.45740165.6100013594416762
15ESPN FPI0.718520.546159.85160.57360166.3800013597387159
16FF-Winners0.696300.5206610.1852-0.64440180.9520013594416358
17Game Time Decision0.718520.567809.5406-0.28830155.5440013597386751
18IronRank.com0.642280.4453810.9461-0.44870199.4420012379445366
19John Coffey0.711110.5615410.0138-0.44090165.5520013596397357
20Kalin Ratings0.656490.531759.9947-0.81140169.3470013186456759
21Kasulis Enhanced Spread0.674070.523819.9504-1.00220165.4430013591446660
22Kasulis ESP20.674070.508209.8007-0.91480160.1880013591446260
23Laffaye RWP0.676190.5742610.0610-0.52920172.4720010571345843
24Least Abs. Val Reg0.725930.543319.9477-0.90460168.8520013598376958
25Least Squares0.711110.570319.9021-1.74270165.2520013596397355
26Lee Burdorf0.654140.5000010.8977-0.53980191.1300013387466464
27Line (Midweek)0.703709.6185-0.98890155.983001359540
28Line (opening)0.696300.578439.5370-0.87040152.7930013594415943
29Line (updated)0.718520.622229.3926-1.08890150.3100013597385634
30Logistic Regression0.688890.5038810.3101-1.76000172.4710013593426564
31Lou St. John0.725930.515389.8064-1.62580161.8270013598376763
32LS - w/ team HFA0.666670.4645710.5957-1.55420187.8890013590455968
33Massey Ratings0.703700.546159.9701-1.11490167.4540013595407159
34NutShell Sports0.666670.5312511.6109-0.73280231.3950013590456860
35PerformanZ Ratings0.659260.5307710.3761-1.02640171.9520013589466961
36Pi-Rate Bias0.688890.574809.8511-0.15020164.0510013593427354
37Pi-Rate Mean0.718520.550399.7991-0.15170165.3130013597387158
38Pi-Rate Ratings0.696300.574809.8207-0.17330164.4840013594417354
39Pigskin Index0.666670.532799.8076-0.05850163.5700013590456557
40Points Per Game0.651850.4846210.5478-1.26630185.4960013588476367
41ProComputerGambler0.718520.476929.7837-2.01600160.4360013597386268
42Pythagorean Ratings0.703700.553859.7318-0.28130163.4430013595407258
43Roger Johnson0.711110.530779.9773-1.56930165.7700013596396961
44Roundtable0.709920.5867810.7250-0.54170192.2320013193387150
45RP Excel0.603050.4297512.1756-1.39690235.0610013179525269
46RP Excel 20.687020.4959311.3282-0.53440206.0590013190416162
47Sagarin Golden Mean0.718520.530779.9876-0.70780172.3190013597386961
48Sagarin Points0.688890.553859.8360-0.77880166.3790013593427258
49Sagarin Rating0.711110.515389.8153-0.79430164.9200013596396763
50Sagarin Recent0.688890.5000010.1701-1.13800166.2890013593426464
51Scoring Effeciency0.681480.484629.8944-0.26530166.8140013592436367
52Sonny Moore0.718520.6000010.1067-0.46460170.1130013597387852
53Stat Fox0.703700.552009.7556-0.19940166.6910013595406956
54Stephen Kerns0.718520.5461510.3964-1.34880176.0210013597387159
55Steven Jens0.691060.529419.94710.70660165.3310012385386356
56System Average0.688890.558149.8115-0.70730162.7890013593427257
57System Median0.681480.562509.8129-0.67850162.5280013592437256
58Talisman Red0.696300.4461510.3849-1.66500178.6760013594415872
59TeamRankings.com0.718520.573649.7393-0.03410168.3270013597387455
60ThePowerRank.com0.696300.531259.9913-0.58210168.2980013594416860
61TheSportsCruncher0.715380.528469.7315-1.26850149.1870013093376558
62Turner Rateform0.681480.5348810.0769-0.08340174.1890013592436960
63Turnover Adj. regressio0.688890.4769210.3694-1.64820172.3870013593426268
64What If Sports0.659260.3953510.9304-2.81040191.0330013589465178
65YourLinx0.703700.5384610.1853-0.34670175.4340013595407060
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses