Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2010 Second Half Totals

Through
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1ARGH Power Ratings0.666670.5229411.31460.20210200.5650012080405752
2Ashby AccuRatings0.642340.5426411.19011.51180202.1680013788497059
3Atomic Football0.626870.5112811.36810.91760205.1440013484506865
4Austin Sports0.644630.6166710.98920.95350199.9510012178437446
5Beck Elo0.591240.5073511.39340.88800205.7280013781566967
6Bihl Rankings0.642280.5691110.88802.23170191.6720012379447053
7Brent Craig0.572730.4761911.52761.70950213.3490011063475055
8Brian Gabrielle0.612900.4915312.10483.37900226.360006238242930
9Computer Adjusted Line0.671530.5555611.10221.13140197.8850013792452016
10Cover810.686960.5045011.04780.43570193.0530011579365655
11Covers.com0.642340.5447811.08501.69400198.2400013788497361
12CPA Rankings0.620440.5367611.4471-0.07980211.2040013785527363
13CPA Retro Rankings0.642340.4411811.6105-0.04230210.5720013788496076
14David and Pasteur0.635040.4926511.40961.67200208.8440013787506769
15Dokter Entropy0.664230.5037011.07271.71170197.2380013791466867
16Dunkel Index0.598540.4485311.63420.53880212.0110013782556175
17Dwiggins0.640350.5089311.89481.27730230.0190011473415755
18Eric Hollobaugh0.626170.6261710.43681.23500183.2580010767406740
19Game Time Decision0.678830.4961811.03271.83620192.9410013793446566
20Hank Trexler0.642340.5038811.19710.35040200.3930013788496564
21JFM Power Ratings0.649640.4264711.29241.52580199.5720013789485878
22Jim Armstrong0.627740.5000011.50871.79950207.6070013786516767
23John Coffey0.642340.5514710.95991.41810193.3690013788497561
24Kambour Rating0.620440.5955911.21571.04010203.5180013785528155
25Kasulis Enhanced Spread0.642340.4926511.4537-0.16180205.4020013788496769
26Least Abs. Val Reg0.642340.4191212.1285-0.19340228.8880013788495779
27Least Squares0.620440.5441211.6472-0.10280216.5020013785527462
28Lee Burdorf0.591240.4887212.04601.43870236.2920013781566568
29Line (opening)0.698530.5531910.99261.05150195.0650013695415242
30Line (updated)0.6788311.12411.14600198.979001379344
31Logistic Regression0.554740.4962411.64740.32510204.8130013776616667
32LS - w/ team HFA0.569340.4360912.6504-0.09380242.8650013778595875
33Massey Ratings0.642340.5629610.78240.94010189.6480013788497659
34Michael Robert Ratings0.671530.4926511.14610.75330205.3470013792456769
35Nationalsportsrankings0.595240.4480011.63271.38600214.2610012675515669
36NFL Pickles0.656930.5746311.2759-0.49930200.7680013790477757
37Nutshell Combo0.627740.4264711.55371.40820204.9970013786515878
38Nutshell Girl0.656930.4852911.28421.51510199.6170013790476670
39NutShell Sports0.583940.4222212.14261.44050227.1720013780575778
40Pat Laffaye0.627740.5447811.36280.56720210.8370013786517361
41PerformanZ Ratings0.598540.5185211.55230.47720208.6730013782557065
42PickingPros.com0.649640.5588211.34730.69910209.9970013789487660
43Pigskin Index0.620440.4651211.34311.67980202.8880013785526069
44Pythagorean Ratings0.598540.5294111.21241.46410205.3630013782557264
45Reistertown Index0.635040.4885511.81750.53280215.2610013787506467
46Roger Johnson0.605840.5303011.2912-0.19050204.6220013783547062
47RP Excel0.569340.4592612.82481.00000264.2340013778596273
48Sagarin0.649640.5514710.79451.11790188.7820013789487561
49Sagarin Elo0.656930.5147111.15091.10260192.7710013790477066
50Sagarin Predictive0.642340.5955910.81571.05120192.6920013788498155
51Schmidt Comp. Ratings0.649640.5367611.18251.62500199.3950013789487363
52Scoring Effeciency0.627740.5000011.44621.48400211.9890013786516868
53Sonny Moore0.613140.4632411.38680.91180205.5130013784536373
54Sportrends0.605840.5581411.36501.71600209.5090013783547257
55Stat Fox0.642340.4341110.98551.74470193.4900013788495673
56Stephen Kerns0.627740.5522411.33430.49930202.2360013786517460
57Steven Jens0.602940.5000011.45741.90440204.1610013682546666
58Strengthranking.com0.613140.5882411.11540.51850198.5540013784538056
59System Average0.664230.5220611.02441.04090194.4160013791467165
60System Median0.649640.5367611.04911.12760195.0170013789487363
61Upset Report0.649640.5581411.71530.63500217.9610013789487257
62What If Sports0.605840.4545512.2175-0.80440225.2950013783546072
63Wunderdog Sports0.642340.5126110.99270.40880193.4150013788496158
64Yarnell0.656930.5481511.68382.19740212.0590013790477461
65YourLinx0.627740.4485311.82911.39090213.9980013786516175
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses