Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2021 Season Totals

Through 2021-10-19
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1ARGH Power Ratings0.659570.5056210.52390.93350170.880009462324544
2Ashby AccuRatings0.595740.4204510.88301.88380176.824009456383751
3Beck Elo0.563830.4301111.63194.09980206.980009453414053
4Cleanup Hitter0.595740.5222210.93612.71310191.710009456384743
5Computer Adjusted Line0.617020.5102010.17021.53190165.305009458362524
6Dan Hanson0.612900.4590211.60081.65400190.826006238242833
7Daniel Curry Index0.606380.3978510.76472.58110177.892009457373756
8Dokter Entropy0.585110.4175810.56131.43110175.707009455393853
9Donchess Inference0.617020.4943810.11811.82870160.003009458364445
10Dunkel Index0.679490.4545510.58872.29620175.442007853253542
11Dwiggins0.585110.4456512.66225.31120229.251009455394151
12ESPN FPI0.606380.4193510.57112.04870173.649009457373954
13FF-Winners0.585110.4375010.58511.62770178.344009455393545
14Game Time Decision0.563830.4302310.84112.90510183.356009453413749
15John Coffey0.571430.5714312.56712.60710225.18900148686
16Kasulis Enhanced Spread0.606380.4835210.34470.73830171.205009457374447
17Kasulis ESP20.638300.5217410.11281.03830163.416009460344844
18Laffaye RWP0.563830.4301112.65674.33100242.068009453414053
19Least Abs. Val Reg0.521280.4666712.2804-0.18680237.979009449454248
20Least Squares0.595740.4945111.4762-0.07300213.471009456384546
21Line (Midweek)0.6276610.16491.40960165.57200945935
22Line (opening)0.563830.5211310.44681.52130174.167009453413734
23Line (updated)0.617020.5853710.14891.45740165.041009458362417
24Logistic Regression0.595740.4431811.68290.35730219.003009456383949
25Lou St. John0.585110.4838711.10740.98340197.814009455394548
26LS - w/ team HFA0.531910.4731213.2564-0.21510281.199009450444449
27Massey Ratings0.617020.4731210.61820.23220178.563009458364449
28Odds Shark0.585110.4130413.17147.20330262.453009455393854
29PerformanZ Ratings0.691490.5591410.16610.11590176.489009465295241
30Pi-Rate Bias0.617020.4086010.79262.54790180.591009458363855
31Pi-Rate Mean0.627660.4193510.61382.58190175.132009459353954
32Pi-Rate Ratings0.595740.4838710.57342.55430175.582009456384548
33Pigskin Index0.574470.4204510.62772.96830179.343009454403751
34Points Per Game0.617020.4086011.35901.30990196.608009458363855
35Pythagorean Ratings0.627660.3871011.41442.57780194.059009459353657
36Roger Johnson0.642860.6428612.7979-0.20930242.66400149595
37Roundtable0.629030.4827612.32243.25820220.949006239232830
38RP Excel0.653850.5270310.6795-0.70510179.083007851273935
39RP Excel 20.628210.4675312.0128-0.16670204.730007849293641
40Sagarin Golden Mean0.574470.3871011.22932.37030189.141009454403657
41Sagarin Points0.553190.4408610.98392.34670181.922009452424152
42Sagarin Rating0.563830.4301111.18372.42990187.160009453414053
43Sagarin Recent0.563830.4086011.38932.55270191.850009453413855
44Scoring Effeciency0.585110.4301111.26172.68430191.381009455394053
45Sonny Moore0.638300.5376310.56021.55000181.884009460345043
46Stat Fox0.627660.4347811.27672.76630192.657009459354052
47Stephen Kerns0.585110.4838711.54312.94290190.214009455394548
48System Average0.648940.3978510.61292.00200173.728009461333756
49System Median0.638300.4285710.51271.94690170.039009460343952
50Talisman Red0.659570.5652210.5137-0.88880176.753009462325240
51TeamRankings.com0.606380.4395610.58942.04260171.678009457374051
52TuringFantasy0.627660.5505610.57450.31910192.850009459354940
53Turnover Adj. regressio0.553190.4891311.82350.25900211.716009452424547
54Versus Sports Simulator0.595740.4731211.96682.82830211.789009456384449
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses