Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)
Through 2018-02-05
| Rank |
System |
Pct. Correct |
Against Spread |
Absolute Error |
Bias |
Mean Square Error |
games |
suw |
sul |
atsw |
atsl |
| 1 | Stephen Kerns | | 0.50000 | 15.6400 | 6.26000 | 363.83700 | 10 | | | 5 | 5 |
| 2 | Line (Midweek) | | | 12.5500 | -1.65000 | 336.10300 | 10 | | | | |
| 3 | Line (opening) | | 0.12500 | 13.3500 | -1.05000 | 356.11500 | 10 | | | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | ARGH Power Ratings | | 0.28571 | 15.3750 | -0.37500 | 419.85700 | 8 | | | 2 | 5 |
| 5 | Daniel Curry Index | | 0.30000 | 14.4670 | -0.30500 | 453.44400 | 10 | | | 3 | 7 |
| 6 | Bihl Rankings | | 0.30000 | 13.3080 | -0.67400 | 348.79100 | 10 | | | 3 | 7 |
| 7 | Massey Ratings | | 0.30000 | 13.2190 | 0.21700 | 337.62000 | 10 | | | 3 | 7 |
| 8 | ComPughter Ratings | | 0.30000 | 13.1990 | -0.38500 | 337.54200 | 10 | | | 3 | 7 |
| 9 | System Median | | 0.30000 | 12.7740 | -0.33400 | 335.41600 | 10 | | | 3 | 7 |
| 10 | What If Sports | | 0.40000 | 13.7700 | 0.63000 | 343.27300 | 10 | | | 4 | 6 |
| 11 | John Coffey | | 0.40000 | 12.8960 | -1.09800 | 344.39100 | 10 | | | 4 | 6 |
| 12 | System Average | | 0.40000 | 12.5854 | -0.03730 | 339.66400 | 10 | | | 4 | 6 |
| 13 | FF-Winners | | 0.70000 | 12.6000 | 2.40000 | 348.22400 | 10 | | | 7 | 3 |
| 14 | TheSportsCruncher | | 0.50000 | 15.4875 | -0.78750 | 447.49100 | 8 | | | 4 | 4 |
| 15 | RP Excel | | 0.50000 | 14.3333 | 6.33330 | 288.64800 | 6 | | | 3 | 3 |
| 16 | Talisman Red | | 0.50000 | 14.1200 | -1.30000 | 353.72500 | 10 | | | 5 | 5 |
| 17 | Ashby AccuRatings | | 0.50000 | 13.3000 | 0.50000 | 358.87500 | 10 | | | 5 | 5 |
| 18 | Pi-Rate Ratings | | 0.50000 | 12.9000 | -0.70000 | 345.65100 | 10 | | | 5 | 5 |
| 19 | Cleanup Hitter | | 0.55556 | 13.6500 | -2.75000 | 298.06900 | 10 | | | 5 | 4 |
| 20 | Dan Hanson | | 0.60000 | 13.7270 | -3.25900 | 351.09300 | 10 | | | 6 | 4 |
| 21 | Donchess Inference | | 0.60000 | 12.5620 | -0.13600 | 349.12400 | 10 | | | 6 | 4 |
| 22 | Roundtable | | 0.60000 | 12.5000 | -4.83330 | 380.60600 | 6 | | | 3 | 2 |
| 23 | Line (updated) | | 0.66667 | 12.3000 | -1.40000 | 323.75400 | 10 | | | 4 | 2 |
| 24 | RP Excel 2 | | 0.66667 | 11.3333 | 4.33330 | 224.87000 | 6 | | | 4 | 2 |
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread = percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses