Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2021 Season Totals

Through 2022-02-13
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Kasulis ESP20.651410.5035710.8193-0.75190189.1800028518599141139
2Donchess Inference0.633800.4872710.84140.27440188.49600285180104134141
3Sonny Moore0.633800.5035211.1409-0.04000199.94800285180104143141
4Line (Midweek)0.6267610.7702-0.31400187.66500285178106
5Kasulis Enhanced Spread0.623240.4821411.1512-1.17510199.01200285177107135145
6Line (updated)0.619720.5974010.6807-0.16490184.577002851761089262
7Daniel Curry Index0.619720.4964811.41150.93530204.40400285176108141143
8Computer Adjusted Line0.616200.5649710.6982-0.15090185.1030028517510910077
9System Average0.612680.4647911.07610.13250194.71100285174110132152
10Sagarin Recent0.612680.4346311.7557-0.02460213.11100285174110123160
11Talisman Red0.612680.5265011.4219-2.15760207.45700285174110149134
12PerformanZ Ratings0.612680.5000011.3922-1.58750210.40000285174110142142
13Dokter Entropy0.612680.4893610.95390.52740193.40200285174110138144
14System Median0.609150.4744511.06410.10030194.17500285173111130144
15Pythagorean Ratings0.609150.4894411.36120.91230201.28800285173111139145
16Stat Fox0.605630.4963811.51941.18290209.11200285172112137139
17FF-Winners0.602110.5339010.8456-0.04560190.38900285171113126110
18TeamRankings.com0.602110.5054211.00420.28910193.51800285171113140137
19Pigskin Index0.602110.4723211.16841.31610198.13500285171113128143
20Pi-Rate Bias0.598590.5053011.22141.04670201.84000285170114143140
21Points Per Game0.598590.4982311.6405-0.16470215.82000285170114141142
22Versus Sports Simulator0.598590.5017711.88960.74790221.29000285170114142141
23Massey Ratings0.598590.4859211.1458-1.50400200.23400285170114138146
24Pi-Rate Mean0.598590.5070911.14531.05820198.97100285170114143139
25Pi-Rate Ratings0.598590.5406411.09791.03900198.38600285170114153130
26RP Excel0.632960.5291811.2313-2.38810206.9490026816998136121
27Line (opening)0.595070.5579410.7421-0.06840187.98000285169115130103
28Scoring Effeciency0.595070.4647911.36390.92310202.07600285169115132152
29Odds Shark0.595070.4751813.11315.20990274.07300285169115134148
30ESPN FPI0.604320.4820110.93820.33750192.14100279168110134144
31Sagarin Points0.591550.4964811.1652-0.16200196.91100285168116141143
32Ashby AccuRatings0.591550.4595611.20710.21830195.65300285168116125147
33Dunkel Index0.623130.4813411.16890.89320199.21300269167101129139
34Sagarin Golden Mean0.588030.4629011.3659-0.07280202.82200285167117131152
35Dwiggins0.588030.4629012.16982.56700224.21200285167117131152
36Sagarin Rating0.584510.5035211.3617-0.09670201.08600285166118143141
37Turnover Adj. regressio0.584510.4699611.8642-1.08150220.73100285166118133150
38Beck Elo0.584510.4718311.80861.93940219.57200285166118134150
39RP Excel 20.624060.5269212.6517-1.65540254.41700267166100137123
40Laffaye RWP0.583040.4699612.02981.79510226.03100284165118133150
41Least Squares0.580990.4911011.7035-1.49230215.96000285165119138143
42Logistic Regression0.580990.4712212.1984-1.57320236.25600285165119131147
43ARGH Power Ratings0.611940.4823511.2500-0.40800202.37000269164104123132
44Lou St. John0.573940.5211311.3836-1.30620208.44400285163121148136
45LS - w/ team HFA0.573940.4788712.6937-1.76410258.37400285163121136148
46Stephen Kerns0.566900.4876311.97560.58050220.92200285161123138145
47Cleanup Hitter0.563380.4963511.47730.75120211.07600285160124136138
48Least Abs. Val Reg0.556340.4964312.1235-1.88090228.50400285158126139141
49TuringFantasy0.560710.5055411.5374-1.19570217.49000281157123137134
50Dan Hanson0.611110.4761911.9103-0.90360223.2810025315498120132
51Game Time Decision0.587300.4743611.13851.81880199.55800253148104111123
52Roundtable0.606990.5137612.15651.22620235.2710023013990112106
53Roger Johnson0.598040.4926811.6787-1.76070219.9830020512282101104
54John Coffey0.583330.4634111.6434-0.21900217.372002051198595110
55Bihl Rankings0.580460.5057511.6858-1.52130223.56300175101738886
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses