Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2017 Last Week

Through 2018-02-05
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Talisman Red0.818180.600008.22090.14640138.49000119264
2Logistic Regression0.818180.900008.4736-1.45000121.23400119291
3Least Abs. Val Reg0.818180.600006.9600-0.00550121.47300119264
4Roundtable0.714291.000007.8571-1.28570130.4780075260
5RP Excel 20.714290.7142910.71432.14290176.0580075252
6NutShell Sports0.727270.600009.24551.60910166.78900118364
7Kalin Ratings0.571430.833339.9514-3.20000186.7000074351
8RP Excel0.571430.6666710.7143-0.14290223.5690074342
9ARGH Power Ratings0.666670.875005.66673.0000058.4440096371
10Daniel Curry Index0.727270.700009.76551.54730154.69400118373
11Dan Hanson0.727270.700008.85360.41000131.21500118373
12Sagarin Golden Mean0.727270.700008.57550.96640130.52200118373
13Pi-Rate Bias0.727270.700008.21821.23640138.30100118373
14Bihl Rankings0.727270.700008.14821.63360131.86100118373
15Sonny Moore0.727270.800007.94360.90550123.58900118382
16Stat Fox0.727270.666677.90910.81820121.48500118363
17Pythagorean Ratings0.727270.700007.79730.56640129.65200118373
18Least Squares0.727270.888897.68180.53820126.52700118381
19Lou St. John0.727270.900007.5445-1.14090135.82400118391
20John Coffey0.727271.000007.51820.84910120.270001183100
21Pi-Rate Ratings0.636360.800008.24551.19090138.39900117482
22Stephen Kerns0.636360.700008.11820.13640128.46800117473
23Pigskin Index0.636360.888898.27270.27270138.44800117481
24Pi-Rate Mean0.636360.800008.41821.27270143.39500117482
25Laffaye RWP0.636360.700008.48091.45000145.49400117473
26Donchess Inference0.636360.900008.49180.82820143.15700117491
27ESPN FPI0.636360.800008.59552.49730130.85300117482
28Kasulis Enhanced Spread0.636360.700008.6182-0.58180151.04200117473
29Points Per Game0.636360.600008.68270.67730137.46400117464
30FF-Winners0.636360.666678.81821.00000133.09100117463
31Covers.com0.636360.700009.00000.18180136.08800117473
32Sagarin Recent0.636360.900009.0036-2.12910146.63000117491
33TheSportsCruncher0.500000.428578.77502.0500093.2720084434
34Roger Johnson0.636360.900007.89270.03820135.22600117491
35Ashby AccuRatings0.636360.800007.81821.09090120.61900117482
36LS - w/ team HFA0.636360.600008.19000.17550124.01100117464
37PerformanZ Ratings0.636360.800007.6973-0.95730130.97500117482
38Scoring Effeciency0.636360.800007.54550.13090126.98600117482
39Cleanup Hitter0.636360.900007.8182-2.72550122.47700117491
40Dwiggins0.636360.800007.86360.98180129.04200117482
41System Median0.636360.800007.88000.62180127.98000117482
42ThePowerRank.com0.636360.900007.93640.28180123.77900117491
43Sagarin Points0.636360.800007.98271.15730125.89400117482
44System Average0.636360.800007.98450.43550131.48300117482
45Sagarin Rating0.636360.800008.01550.47910126.19900117482
46Turnover Adj. regressio0.636360.800008.0273-0.42360129.82400117482
47TeamRankings.com0.636360.800008.10001.39090128.86100117482
48Turner Rateform0.636360.900008.1182-0.57640137.72400117491
49ComPughter Ratings0.636360.700008.14000.67090148.95500117473
50Dokter Entropy0.545450.700008.44821.68640143.05700116573
51Game Time Decision0.545450.7000010.27181.63730194.47400116573
52Dunkel Index0.545450.5000010.07553.82090175.79100116555
53Lee Burdorf0.545450.600009.4364-0.67270161.71000116564
54YourLinx0.545450.900009.0109-1.16550140.62300116591
55What If Sports0.545450.900008.9273-3.72730158.95000116591
56Beck Elo0.545450.900008.2255-1.19820141.84000116591
57Massey Ratings0.545451.000007.80090.12270133.567001165100
58Kasulis ESP20.454550.700009.16360.01820163.14500115673
59Computer Adjusted Line0.454551.000009.31820.86360166.86400115660
60ProComputerGambler0.454550.500009.36550.86180169.51900115655
61Line (updated)0.454551.000009.68180.77270181.10500115640
62Line (opening)0.454550.800009.68180.40910178.28000115641
63Line (Midweek)0.454559.95450.95450184.849001156
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses