Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2010 Second Half Totals

Through
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Brian Gabrielle0.612900.4915312.10483.37900226.360006238242930
2Cover810.686960.5045011.04780.43570193.0530011579365655
3Eric Hollobaugh0.626170.6261710.43681.23500183.2580010767406740
4ARGH Power Ratings0.666670.5229411.31460.20210200.5650012080405752
5Dwiggins0.640350.5089311.89481.27730230.0190011473415755
6Line (opening)0.698530.5531910.99261.05150195.0650013695415242
7Austin Sports0.644630.6166710.98920.95350199.9510012178437446
8Bihl Rankings0.642280.5691110.88802.23170191.6720012379447053
9Game Time Decision0.678830.4961811.03271.83620192.9410013793446566
10Line (updated)0.6788311.12411.14600198.979001379344
11Computer Adjusted Line0.671530.5555611.10221.13140197.8850013792452016
12Michael Robert Ratings0.671530.4926511.14610.75330205.3470013792456769
13System Average0.664230.5220611.02441.04090194.4160013791467165
14Dokter Entropy0.664230.5037011.07271.71170197.2380013791466867
15NFL Pickles0.656930.5746311.2759-0.49930200.7680013790477757
16Brent Craig0.572730.4761911.52761.70950213.3490011063475055
17Sagarin Elo0.656930.5147111.15091.10260192.7710013790477066
18Nutshell Girl0.656930.4852911.28421.51510199.6170013790476670
19Yarnell0.656930.5481511.68382.19740212.0590013790477461
20Upset Report0.649640.5581411.71530.63500217.9610013789487257
21Sagarin0.649640.5514710.79451.11790188.7820013789487561
22System Median0.649640.5367611.04911.12760195.0170013789487363
23Schmidt Comp. Ratings0.649640.5367611.18251.62500199.3950013789487363
24PickingPros.com0.649640.5588211.34730.69910209.9970013789487660
25JFM Power Ratings0.649640.4264711.29241.52580199.5720013789485878
26Covers.com0.642340.5447811.08501.69400198.2400013788497361
27Massey Ratings0.642340.5629610.78240.94010189.6480013788497659
28Sagarin Predictive0.642340.5955910.81571.05120192.6920013788498155
29John Coffey0.642340.5514710.95991.41810193.3690013788497561
30Stat Fox0.642340.4341110.98551.74470193.4900013788495673
31Wunderdog Sports0.642340.5126110.99270.40880193.4150013788496158
32Least Abs. Val Reg0.642340.4191212.1285-0.19340228.8880013788495779
33CPA Retro Rankings0.642340.4411811.6105-0.04230210.5720013788496076
34Ashby AccuRatings0.642340.5426411.19011.51180202.1680013788497059
35Hank Trexler0.642340.5038811.19710.35040200.3930013788496564
36Kasulis Enhanced Spread0.642340.4926511.4537-0.16180205.4020013788496769
37Reistertown Index0.635040.4885511.81750.53280215.2610013787506467
38Atomic Football0.626870.5112811.36810.91760205.1440013484506865
39David and Pasteur0.635040.4926511.40961.67200208.8440013787506769
40YourLinx0.627740.4485311.82911.39090213.9980013786516175
41Stephen Kerns0.627740.5522411.33430.49930202.2360013786517460
42Nationalsportsrankings0.595240.4480011.63271.38600214.2610012675515669
43Pat Laffaye0.627740.5447811.36280.56720210.8370013786517361
44Scoring Effeciency0.627740.5000011.44621.48400211.9890013786516868
45Nutshell Combo0.627740.4264711.55371.40820204.9970013786515878
46Jim Armstrong0.627740.5000011.50871.79950207.6070013786516767
47CPA Rankings0.620440.5367611.4471-0.07980211.2040013785527363
48Kambour Rating0.620440.5955911.21571.04010203.5180013785528155
49Pigskin Index0.620440.4651211.34311.67980202.8880013785526069
50Least Squares0.620440.5441211.6472-0.10280216.5020013785527462
51Sonny Moore0.613140.4632411.38680.91180205.5130013784536373
52Strengthranking.com0.613140.5882411.11540.51850198.5540013784538056
53Sportrends0.605840.5581411.36501.71600209.5090013783547257
54What If Sports0.605840.4545512.2175-0.80440225.2950013783546072
55Steven Jens0.602940.5000011.45741.90440204.1610013682546666
56Roger Johnson0.605840.5303011.2912-0.19050204.6220013783547062
57Pythagorean Ratings0.598540.5294111.21241.46410205.3630013782557264
58PerformanZ Ratings0.598540.5185211.55230.47720208.6730013782557065
59Dunkel Index0.598540.4485311.63420.53880212.0110013782556175
60Beck Elo0.591240.5073511.39340.88800205.7280013781566967
61Lee Burdorf0.591240.4887212.04601.43870236.2920013781566568
62NutShell Sports0.583940.4222212.14261.44050227.1720013780575778
63LS - w/ team HFA0.569340.4360912.6504-0.09380242.8650013778595875
64RP Excel0.569340.4592612.82481.00000264.2340013778596273
65Logistic Regression0.554740.4962411.64740.32510204.8130013776616667
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses